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This Week’s Top Stories: Canada Is The G7’s Biggest Real Estate Bubble, and Toronto Rental Inventory Soars – Better Dwelling

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Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s most important stories.

Canadian Real Estate

Canada Doubled Down On Real Estate In 2005. Now It’s The Biggest Bubble The G7 Has Ever Seen, And It’s Getting Bigger
Canadian real estate prices have grown rapidly, but it’s not clear how much more rapidly it grew than its peers. The typical home across Canada increased 88.0% from 2005 to 2020, almost 3x the amount of the next closest G7 country. Over the same period, US real estate prices only increased 3%. While the recent narrative on price growth focuses on population growth post 2015, it doesn’t quite make sense. Canadian prices were already up 50.5% from 2005 to 2015, more than 10x faster growth than any other G7 country. By the time the population growth narrative starts, the horse already left the barn.
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Canada’s National Housing Agency Discreetly Sent Banks A Memo That Warns Defaults Are Coming
Canada’s national housing agency sent a confidential memo to lenders requesting they curb lending to risky borrowers. The memo warns they have always expected defaults to rise when government support measures expire. Further, the rapid expansion of lending will create a significant drag on economic growth, making it more difficult for the economy to exit the recession. They warned the combination of measures can leave even first-time buyers that can pay their bills, with negative equity.
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Canadian Immigration Slows Further, As New Permanent Residents Drop Over 44%
Immigration has been one of the key drivers of Canadian real estate price increases, but that’s come to a sudden halt. The number of permanent residents admitted fell to 19,175 people in June, down 44.2% from last year. The decline is fairly consistent across the country, but Ontario is going to see the biggest shift in real estate demand as a consequence.
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Canadian Mortgage Credit Growth Makes A Slight Dip, Previous Month Revised Lower
Canadian mortgage credit slowed in growth, and it may have seen its peak for the year. The balance of mortgage credit outstanding hit $1.68 trillion in June, up 5.59% from the same month last year. There’s substantial growth but it’s important to remember 16% of mortgages aren’t being paid. This means the numbers are accelerating much faster than they typically would if payments were wearing down the balance. The result is this acceleration may not be as important as it would be under normal circumstances.
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Canadian New Home Starts Rise To Highest Level Since 2017, Pandemic Be Damned
Canada is starting to build more homes than it has in the past few years, in the middle of a pandemic. There were 245,604 new home starts, seasonally adjusted at the annual rate in July. This is an increase of 11.1% compared to the same month last year. The number of starts is the highest level since November 2017, according to Canada’s national housing agency.
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Toronto Real Estate

Toronto Real Estate’s Latest Problem Is Soaring Rental Inventory
Toronto real estate was one of the tightest rental markets in North America, but just saw a sudden surge of inventory. There were 8,346 new listings for rentals in July, up 82.1% from last year. The number of leased units increased to 4,415 in July, up 11.5% from the same month last year. This is the most new listings for rentals in at least half a decade, and the number keeps rising.
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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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