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This Week’s Top Stories: Canadian Real Estate Prices Forecasted To Fall Next Year, and Debt Problems To Get Worse – Better Dwelling

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Time for your cheat sheet on this week’s most important stories.

Canadian Real Estate

Canadian Real Estate Prices To Fall Up To 26%, Bay Street Firm Warns Institutions

A Bay Street firm is warning institutional clients of falling real estate prices. The firm’s latest model suggests prices may fall up to 11% at the national level, starting next year. In Vancouver, the declines can peak at a much higher 17%. Toronto may see the biggest dip, with declines of up to 26%. The firm joins other risk advisors, as well as the CMHC, in forecasting price drops next year.

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CMHC Finds Toronto And Vancouver Mortgage Debt Ratios Fall, But Not As It Seems

Canada’s state-owned mortgage insurer explained why debt ratios are so low. The debt to income ratio across Canada has been dropping to multi-year lows. While that typically implies households are improving their debt situation, that didn’t happen. Programs like CERB replaced twice the amount of income that was lost. This makes it appear like the debt to income fell, but in reality it should shoot up when those programs expire.

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CIBC: Canadians Have $90 Billion In Excess Cash, As Government Doubles Income Lost

Canadians have a big pile of cash waiting on the sidelines, according to one of the country’s big banks. CIBC analysts estimate households have $90 billion in savings above the forecasted amount. The bank believes this is due to government transfers replacing more than the income that was lost. By the bank’s estimate, the government replaced every $1 of income lost, with $2.25 in benefits. An unusual, and unprecedented event during a recession.

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Canadian Real Estate Sales Slow For The First Time Since The Beginning Of Pandemic

Canadian real estate sales slowed for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic. CREA data shows 56,186 seasonally adjusted sales in October, down 0.7% from the month before. Unadjusted, there were 59,159 sales in the month, up 32.1% from the same month last year. The unadjusted numbers show sales are significantly higher than last year. However, the industry’s seasonally adjusted sales show this is due to the shifted period.

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CRA: 800,000 Ineligible People Did Not Get CERB, But They’re Checking Applications

Canada’s tax agency clarified a rumor – people that didn’t file taxes last year are still eligible for CERB. The rumor, perpetuated by some politicians, comes from a misunderstanding of the qualification criteria. Over 800,000 people who applied for the benefit, hadn’t yet filed taxes for 2019. However, the tax agency clarified filing taxes was not a requirement at this point. People can still qualify just on this year’s taxes. The agency then added they expect to verify eligibility next tax season, when they have the data to do so. Those found ineligible, will be asked to pay it back – potentially with penalties.

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Canada Saw Tens Of Thousands Of Six-Figure Earners Apply For Emergency Income

Canada’s CERB program was utilized by tens of thousands of people who earned six-figures last year. CRA data shows 90,720 people applied for CERB that had an income between $93,259 to $147,667 in 2019. Another 23,900 applicants filed taxes that showed they made between $147,667 and $210,371 last year. In the highest disclosed bracket, 14,070 applied for CERB that made over $210,371 last year. This implies a major disruption of income to households, who make considerably less on the income benefit. 

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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