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This will be a pivotal week in the Bank of Canada’s inflation fight

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The Bank of Canada will announce the conclusions of its latest round of policy deliberations on Jan. 25 at 10 a.m. eastern time. The safe bet is that governor Tiff Macklem will green light a quarter-point increase, which would lift the benchmark rate to 4.5 per cent and extend the most aggressive series of rate hikes in the central bank’s history.

Most analysts predict policymakers will then decide that’s enough and stop. But that’s not guaranteed.

David Rosenberg, a widely read Bay Street economist and contributor to the Financial Post, thinks the Bank of Canada and its peers have already raised interest rates too high, creating the conditions for a recession that has already begun. If Macklem and his deputies have been reading Rosenberg, they will be reluctant to push borrowing costs higher.

Yet inflation — now around six per cent — remains well off the Bank of Canada’s target of two per cent. Cost pressures are receding, but perhaps not fast enough for an institution that’s mandated to achieve price stability. In other words, the Bank of Canada’s credibility is at stake. That’s one reason most of the professionals who are paid to predict the trajectory of Canadian interest rates say Macklem will raise the benchmark rate at least one more time. Citigroup Global Markets Inc.’s Veronica Clark thinks it will take a hike this week and one more increase in March to get inflation under control.

This week’s policy decision will be a pivotal moment in Macklem’s battle with inflation. Here’s what you need to know:

Data dependency

The Bank of Canada’s decision to lift the benchmark rate by a half-point in December was classified as a surprise because Bay Street had settled on a smaller quarter-point increase as the most likely outcome. By opting for yet another outsized increase (central banks generally prefer quarter-point moves up or down), Macklem showed he will err on the side of crushing inflation when looking at a dashboard of mixed signals.

Despite the increase, however, the central bank said the game had changed. Policymakers opted against raising interest rates in January 2022, but they did emphatically state that they would be raising the benchmark rate when they updated policy five weeks later. They followed through, locking in a sequence of policy meetings where the only question under consideration was how high? With headline inflation on its way to a June peak of 8.1 per cent, the Bank of Canada’s leaders knew they would be spending most of the year playing a high-stakes game of chase.

By the end of the year, Canada’s inflation fever seemed to be breaking. As policymakers administered another dose of tough medicine, they said they would be open to giving their patient a break in the new year.

“We indicated that going forward, we will be considering whether to increase rates further,” deputy governor Sharon Kozicki said in a speech on Dec. 8. “By that, we mean we expect our decisions will be more data-dependent.”

Macklem’s dashboard

The data published since early December are mixed. Year-over-year increases in the consumer price index slowed to 6.8 per cent in November (from 6.9 per cent in October) and then 6.3 per cent in December. By itself, that might be enough to persuade Macklem and his deputies to stop raising interest rates.

But the central bank started raising interest rates aggressively because it concluded demand had outstripped the Canadian economy’s ability to keep up, creating a mismatch between supply and demand that can only lead to inflation. Canada’s economy still had lots of heat at the end of the year. Employers added more than 100,000 jobs (dropping the unemployment rate to five per cent, one of the lowest marks on record), and retail sales and restaurant visits were buoyant.

Economists who doubted inflation could be tamed without a spike in unemployment are now eating their forecasts. “Underlying inflation does seem to be moderating without a recession,” Douglas Porter, chief economist at Bank of Montreal, told the Financial Post’s Stephanie Hughes. “My odds that I’m putting on a soft landing have been slowly rising over the last three months.”

The central bank will have been unsettled by its latest quarterly surveys of businesses and consumers. Both showed confidence waned in the fourth quarter, but that isn’t what will have bothered policymakers. Forty per cent of respondents to the Business Outlook Survey said it will take until 2026 or later to get inflation back to two per cent, and most consumers said they thought inflation would be around five per cent in two years. Those results suggest inflation is becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy, something Macklem has been desperately trying to avoid.

Why Macklem might keep going

Headline inflation is coming down, but core measures that correct for volatile prices such as gasoline are stickier. For example, Statistics Canada’s consumer price index, excluding food and energy, increased 5.3 per cent from December 2021, only a slight drop from 5.4 per cent in November. Commodity prices caused the initial surge in prices, but the main driver now is a combination of demand, expectations and the lagging effects of contracts signed when inflation was peaking last year.

“There’s not enough evidence to confidently say that inflation is clearly on its way back to the two per cent target,” Royce Mendes, an economist at Desjardins Group, said in a note.

The central bank doesn’t like to admit it, but its policy choices dictate the mood of the housing market. The spike in borrowing costs has hit the housing industry hard, although builders and mortgage brokers have been riding a wave of irrational exuberance for years. Housing markets are finally starting to look affordable. A decision to pause could cause the Bank of Canada to look weak, and reinforce bets in the bond market that policymakers will be cutting interest rates before the year is over.

“The BoC needs to consider that its actions could inflame future risks to housing affordability all over again,” Derek Holt, an economist at the Bank of Nova Scotia, said in a note last week.

Why Macklem might pause

The Bank of Canada will also update its economic outlook this week. Its October quarterly outlook had inflation averaging 7.1 per cent in the fourth quarter. Instead, year-over-year increases in the consumer price index averaged 6.7 per cent. Policymakers are gaining ground faster than they thought they would. Rather than add to the risk of a recession with another increase, it might be time to take stock, and maybe even hint at a declaration of victory.

Monetary policy works with a lag, so we haven’t yet seen the full effect of higher interest rates. Rosenberg thinks it could be ugly, given Canadian households piled up so much debt chasing sky-high housing prices over the past decade. Many of them will now be using more of their disposable income to pay higher debt-servicing costs instead of contributing to demand. Macklem doesn’t want to be remembered as the governor who let inflation off its leash, but he won’t want to be known as the central banker who caused a painful recession either.

“While labour markets remain very tight, inflation has come in cooler than expected in recent months and the housing market is still struggling,” the economics team at National Bank said in their latest weekly review of economic conditions. “As such, we’d argue that the prudent approach is to remain on the sidelines at this juncture, but we concede that this decision could easily go either way.”

Bottom line

There’s a good case for stopping. Elevated levels of debt and years of ultra-low interest rates have probably made the economy super sensitive to higher borrowing costs, meaning the pain is coming. But the data since December don’t appear to have satisfied the Bank of Canada’s own criteria for a pause. Kozicki said the central bank would need to see definitive evidence that inflation was headed back to target.

The stickiness of core prices, and evidence that a significant number of businesses and consumers expect price pressures to continue suggest inflation could stop falling before it gets to two per cent. That will concern policymakers the most. They care about growth, but at the end of the day, their mission is to get inflation back to two per cent. We’re still a long way from that.

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:T)

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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