Last week, Abacus Data released a survey that suggested 81 per cent of Canadians would like to see a change in government at the federal level — but a substantial number of those who would prefer change are also uncomfortable with their options.
That survey might be a good place to start for those trying to understand Monday night’s byelection results.
At least as they pertain to current standings in the House of Commons, the results were status quo — the Liberals retained two seats and the Conservatives kept two seats.
There are a number of reasons to believe the Liberals will have a difficult time holding on to power in the next general election. But Monday’s byelections suggest that the outcome of that election is very far from a foregone conclusion.
If anything, it was the Liberals who had the best night.
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre can take some comfort from the fact that Maxime Bernier couldn’t manage more than 17 per cent in Portage-Lisgar — four points below what the People’s Party leader received there in 2021.
If Poilievre’s leadership has so far been aimed at bringing back Conservative voters who went to the People’s Party in 2021, Portage-Lisgar offers some evidence that he is succeeding. The Conservatives might not have knocked Bernier out but they have at least knocked him down. And that might mean Poilievre now has to spend less time trying to appeal to Bernier’s voters.
But the Conservatives may have done significant damage to themselves in the process. Over the weekend, the Liberals released video of the Conservative candidate in Portage-Lisgar, Branden Leslie, saying that he would have voted against legislation that banned conversion therapy.
3 federal party leaders visit Manitoba on same day to campaign in byelections
The leaders of three federal political parties were in Manitoba today. They were working to gain support in two federal byelection campaigns now underway.
The Conservatives also managed to hold on to the southwestern Ontario riding of Oxford, but only just. In the last four federal elections, the Conservatives have won that riding by an average of 25 points. On Monday, the Conservative candidate won it by seven points.
That might be chalked up to a messy nomination fight that split local Conservative supporters — Dave MacKenzie, the former Conservative MP for the riding, ended up endorsing the Liberal candidate. Monday’s result could end up looking like a fluke of fleeting circumstances. But the fact the Conservative lead shrank by as much as it did might suggest there’s more than internecine conflict to blame.
Either way, Oxford is a victory that Poilievre won’t be able to brag about.
The Liberals hold their ground
The Liberals can take their own comfort from the result in Montreal’s Westmount riding, where their traditional vote largely held up despite grumbling about the government’s changes to language laws. Potentially more interesting is the result in Winnipeg South Centre — less for the fact the Liberals won than for the margin of victory.
A few hours before the polls closed on Monday, former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole appeared on CBC’s Power & Politics and went so far as to suggest that the Conservatives could also win Winnipeg South Centre.
O’Toole’s basis for believing that is unclear. But it’s not crazy to imagine the Conservative Party being competitive in such a riding right now — the Conservatives won the riding in 2011 when the Liberal vote collapsed nationally and Stephen Harper led the Conservatives to a majority government.
Trudeau congratulates Liberal byelection winners
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau welcomed two new Liberal MPs to Ottawa after wins in byelections in Winnipeg and Montreal on Monday night.
Monday night’s result in Winnipeg South Centre was not close. Two years ago, the late Liberal minister Jim Carr won the riding by nearly 18 points. On Monday, Carr’s son Ben won the riding by almost 32 points — matching the spread that Jim Carr had in 2015 when the Liberals won a majority government.
On its own, that result might not mean much. But it matches what happened six months ago in a byelection in the Ontario riding of Mississauga-Lakeshore — another urban/suburban riding that the Conservatives won in 2011.
In 2021, the Liberals won that riding by six points. In 2022, after recruiting former provincial cabinet minister Charles Sousa to run, the Liberals won Mississauga-Lakeshore by 14 points.
Those results don’t necessarily tell us anything about what could happen in a federal election that might still be two years away. But if the tide of public opinion was moving decisively against the government, you might expect to see the Liberals losing ground or the Conservatives gaining it. Beyond Portage-Lisgar, the margins for the Conservative Party last night appeared to be getting worse, not better.
PM’s numbers are bad — Poilievre’s aren’t much better
The byelections might speak to some latent support for the Liberals that isn’t showing up in polls — Abacus gave the Conservatives a seven-point lead nationally last week. But these results might also be traced back to that lack of comfort with the alternatives.
Abacus found that just 30 per cent of respondents had a positive impression of the prime minister, compared to 49 per cent who said they had a negative impression. But Poilievre’s personal numbers were barely any better, at 32 per cent and 40 per cent.
A poll released by the Angus Reid Institute this week tracked similar sentiments. For Trudeau, 36 per cent approved of the job he was doing, while 59 disapproved. For Poilievre, 36 per cent viewed him favourably, while 50 per cent viewed him unfavourably.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau greets supporters at a rally for byelection candidate Ben Carr, right, in Winnipeg on Wednesday, May 24, 2023. (John Woods/The Canadian Press)
After seven and a half years in office, Trudeau’s personal brand is weathered and worn. But his primary challenger isn’t looking much more attractive. And elections are always fundamentally a choice.
For the Liberals, that may offer limited solace. Convincing voters that Poilievre is an unappetizing option is probably a necessary part of any Liberal re-election campaign — but they probably can’t expect to win on that argument alone.
For the Conservatives, there may be little cause for optimism in these results. Bernier’s political career may actually be fizzling out (though that’s been said before — and more than once). But simply winning over the PPC vote and waiting for the Liberals to defeat themselves may not be enough to get Poilievre into power.
If the Conservative leader never again mentions the World Economic Forum, it might be because these byelections have made it clear that a win in Portage-Lisgar isn’t enough to win government.
TORONTO – Ontario’s education minister has asked officials to conduct a governance review of a Brantford-area Catholic school board after trustees spent $45,000 on a trip to Italy to buy $100,000 worth of art.
Trustees of the Brant Haldimand Norfolk Catholic District School Board promised to pay back the trip expenses, not long after they were reported by the Brantford Expositor, but Education Minister Jill Dunlop said more answers are necessary.
“While I acknowledge that the (board) is taking steps to fix their error in judgment, I remain concerned that accountability was only taken after my ministry and the public expressed clear concerns for the misuse of taxpayer dollars,” Dunlop wrote in a statement.
“With that in mind, I have asked my officials to start the process to conduct a governance review of the board.”
The Brantford Expositor reported that the art purchased in Italy included life-sized, hand-painted wooden statues of St. Padre Pio and the Virgin Mary, a large crucifix, sculptures depicting the 14 stations of the cross and a bust of Pope Francis.
Most of the art is destined for St. Padre Pio Catholic Secondary School, currently under construction, which the board wants to make a “flagship” school, the newspaper reported.
Board chair Rick Petrella initially told the Expositor that he and three other trustees travelled to Italy over the summer to meet artisans and commission the religious artwork.
“We looked at buying it off the shelf, but nothing stood out,” he told the newspaper.
But Petrella and the board of trustees now say in a subsequent statement that they regret the trip, and have promised to repay the expenses, as well as look at donations or other funding to offset the cost of the artwork to the board.
“We recognize that the optics and actions of this trip were not favorable, and although it was undertaken in good faith to promote our Catholic identity and to do something special for our two new schools, we acknowledge that it was not the best course of action,” they wrote.
The province is also conducting an audit of the Thames Valley District School Board in southwestern Ontario due to a staff retreat in Toronto that cost nearly $40,000, including a stay at the Rogers Centre hotel.
The ministry is also doing an expedited investigation of the Toronto District School Board after Premier Doug Ford raised concerns about a recent field trip, which saw students from 15 schools attend a protest on mercury contamination affecting a First Nation community in the north.
Videos of the protest on social media show some march participants chanting pro-Palestinian slogans, which prompted Ford to complain that teachers were trying to indoctrinate children.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 18, 2024.
TORONTO – Credit card fees for small and medium-sized businesses are starting to dip lower as a deal reached between the federal government and the two major card companies is set to take effect.
Mastercard and Visa are reducing interchange fees by up to 27 per cent in a move that Ottawa says will save businesses about $1 billion over five years.
Dan Kelly, president of the Canadian Federation of Independent Business thanked Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland for seeing the deal through. In a statement, he said qualifying businesses could expect about $350 savings per year for each $100,000 in Visa sales and about $200 in savings per year for each $100,000 in Mastercard sales.
To qualify, businesses’ sales volume can’t exceed $300,000 on Visa and $175,000 for Mastercard.
The change officially takes place Saturday, but some payment processors have already started to pass on the savings.
The small business group has, however, noted that not all processors have been clear that they’ll pass on the savings, pointing for example to Stripe where not all customers will see a change.
Kelly said Stripe’s decision means the company would keep the savings that were intended for small business customers.
“It’s extremely disappointing to see a big company take this approach,” he said.
Stripe says customers on its Interchange Plus plan, which sees costs vary by transaction type, will see the fee reductions passed through, just like other network cost and fee changes.
But those on its flat-rate plan won’t see a change, because the company says it has seen other costs and fees rise that add up to more than the reduction in interchange fees.
Other processors such as Moneris have said that qualifying businesses on both its interchange plus and flat rate model will see a reduction.
Finance Ministry spokeswoman Marie-France Faucher said the fee reduction should benefit about 90 per cent of businesses that accept credit card, and the department expects companies to pass on the savings.
“The federal government is closely monitoring the implementation of the credit card fees reduction, with the strong expectation that all payment processors like Stripe will pass the savings on to small businesses.”
She said the revised code of conduct for the industry has also given businesses more rights, including switching processors without penalty.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 18, 2024.
MONTREAL – Quebec’s largest nurses union has reached a deal with the provincial government more than a year and a half after their collective agreement expired in March 2023.
Fédération interprofessionnelle de la santé, known as the FIQ, announced Thursday evening that two-thirds of union members had voted to adopt a new collective agreement recommended by a conciliator.
The details of the deal were not disclosed, but a major sticking point had been the government’s push for nurses to be more flexible in moving between health-care facilities to address staffing needs.
The union rejected a deal in principle in April over concerns about transfers between health centres, but president Julie Bouchard says those requirements will now be better defined.
However, Bouchard is not declaring victory and says the union will continue to fight to improve difficult working conditions, which include mandatory overtime and staff shortages.
The union has 80,000 members, including the majority of Quebec nurses, and the new collective agreement covers the period from 2023 to 2028.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 18, 2024.
