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Three keys to Alberta’s economy

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One week into a new year, here are three decisive questions to ponder about the state of the economy.

In the face of increasing geopolitical tensions affecting the energy sector, what is the outlook for oil markets in 2020?

Given rising unemployment levels, will the job situation improve in Alberta?

And after a slide in home prices, when will the local real-estate market return to equilibrium?

In a series of interviews, some top analysts have weighed in with their expectations for these key areas of the economy.

Alberta's economy

Tension in the Middle East has pushed crude oil prices higher.

Postmedia Archives

What will happen with oil markets and the energy sector?

The year is already starting out with a sudden jolt for oil markets, with prices driven higher by increased geopolitical concerns in the Middle East.

A U.S. drone strike last week killed prominent Iranian general Qassem Soleimani and the fallout pushed global crude prices higher on Friday and Monday.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil has risen more than $2 since his death, closing Monday at US$63.27 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its highest point since last spring.

This surge comes on the heels of prices climbing more than 10 per cent between the end of November and New Year’s Day.

“There are more fundamental reasons in the last month that support oil prices than what we have seen in the last year,” said analyst Jeremy McCrea of Raymond James.

Analysts point to the increased risk of conflict in the Middle East as one factor driving prices higher. (An expected drop in spending on U.S. shale oil developments and the potential resolution of the China-U.S. trade dispute could also push markets up.)

Ian Nieboer, managing director of RS Energy Group, said the situation in the Middle East reduces the likelihood of a resolution that would see more Iranian oil barrels come on to the global market in 2020.

He remains cautious about the industry outlook this year and expects companies will stay disciplined in their approach to spending.

“I don’t expect a massive ramp in activity,” Nieboer said.

A new report by consultancy Deloitte forecasts WTI oil prices will average US$58 a barrel in 2020, although it could move higher depending on how geopolitical issues unfold in the coming weeks, said Andrew Botterill, Deloitte’s national oil and gas leader.

However, the world still has access to plenty of oil, he noted.

“All in all, we are going to see producers get a little more confident, see higher prices in the first half of the year and…then we might see producers start to spend a little more capital,” Botterill added.


Alberta’s economy is expected to expand in 2020, but new jobs will be scarce.

Jacques Boissinot / The Canadian Press

What is happening on the employment front?

Albertans looking for work faced a tough market in the second half of last year, as more than 18,000 positions disappeared in November and the unemployment rate climbed above seven per cent — a full percentage point higher than a year earlier.

The economy is expected to regain some momentum this year, but will companies invest more money and create more jobs?

Alicia Macdonald of the Conference Board of Canada said Alberta’s economy will likely expand by about 2.5 per cent this year, as some increased investment occurs in the province.

But she doesn’t see that translating into a flood of new jobs.

“Unfortunately in 2020, we don’t see a significant rebound in the cards,” said Macdonald. “We will see job cuts in the public administration sector and will see unemployment increase throughout the year and won’t peak until the end of 2021.”

The Conference Board expects the unemployment rate will average 7.8 per cent this year. Overall employment is projected to increase, but Alberta will also see more people searching for jobs.

However, some economists see better prospects ahead.

“To the extent that we expect to see some improvement in economic growth and investment in the province in 2020, that will feed into higher job numbers and that should drive the unemployment rate down a little bit,” said Mike Holden, chief economist of the Business Council of Alberta.

Growth should come from energy sector activity, construction and the impact of Alberta reducing its corporate tax rate, he said.

What will happen in the housing market?

The real estate market has been on a bumpy ride in recent years.

Calgary’s property assessment data released last week shows the typical home has dropped in value by four per cent for the new year. (Assessment data is based on property valuations as of July 2019.)

According to the Calgary Real Estate Board, benchmark home prices fell in 2019 (to $418,500 in December), although sales increased by about one per cent.

CREB chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie said some modest increases in local employment and a slight easing in mortgage rates encouraged more home sales last year.

As for the outlook for 2020?

“Our market is oversupplied but we are starting to see signs of stabilization in prices,” she said.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. senior analyst Taylor Pardy expects housing starts will increase slightly this year and improve in 2021, driven by factors such as population growth.

The average price for a home in Calgary will move up by about one per cent this year, according to CMHC.

Calgary still has a large number of existing homes on the market and new houses that have been built but not yet sold, giving potential buyers more bargaining room on price.

“As those inventory levels get absorbed into the market, we are anticipating more balanced market conditions to emerge and as a result, perhaps some slight price increases by the end of 2020,” Pardy said.

So there you have it.

The energy market is starting the year on an upward trajectory, the labour market remains on uncertain footing and the housing market appears to be stabilizing.

It’s not a return to the glory days of a decade ago, but it does look more promising than the tepid beginning of 2019.

BY

Chris Varcoe

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Politics

B.C. Conservatives, NDP both announce plans to help ease B.C. housing crisis

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Both of the main candidates in British Columbia‘s election campaign pushed their own plans to solve parts of the housing crisis.

B.C. Conservative Leader John Rustad told a news conference in Surrey that his government would end the multi-year permit delays and would get homes built at the speed and scale needed to address the housing crisis.

NDP Leader David Eby went to Cumberland on Vancouver Island to promote his party’s plan to fast-track factory-built homes.

Eby said pre-built homes would cut waste, reduce emissions, and advances in the industry mean the homes are “beautiful and high-quality.”

He said the process was “more like Lego” than normal construction.

“The idea is pretty straightforward. In a controlled factory environment, you can build faster, you can build with less waste and the homes that are built are more consistent and more efficient and it’s cheaper.”

Rustad said the Conservative Party of B.C. would redesign the approval process for home building, setting a six-month limit for rezoning and development permit and three months for a building permit.

“This means that we will significantly be able to improve the time frame it takes to actually get construction happening in this province, and we’ll be working with city halls across the province to be able to meet these timelines,” Rustad said.

If a clear yes or no isn’t issued by a city within that limit, the province would issue the permit, said a B.C. Conservative news release announcing the platform.

Rustad said the party would remove NDP taxes on housing, support transit-oriented communities, reform development cost charges and make taxes fair for homeowners.

“We have so much regulation that has been put in place associated with housing that it makes it really difficult for anybody to be able to actually get through and build things, not to mention the cost,” he said. “So we’ll amend the Local Government Act to prevent any home killing red tape that has been introduced by this government.”

The party’s statement also outlined their zoning plan, adding that it would work with BC Assessment “to make sure that current homeowners don’t get hit with higher tax bills based on future potential.”

The party statement said, if elected, a Conservative government would build new towns, saying B.C. is blessed with an abundance of land, but the NDP refuses to use it to end the housing shortage.

“We will identify land outside the Agricultural Land Reserve that has the potential to support beautiful new communities.”

A statement issued by the NDP on Friday said it would work with industry, municipalities and First Nations to create a provincewide framework for prefabricated homes so builders know what’s required in every community.

It said there would be a pre-approved set of designs to reduce the permitting process, and it would work to develop skills training needed to support prefabricated home construction.

The statement said Scandinavian countries had embraced factory-built homes, which “offer an alternative to the much slower, more costly process of building on-site.”

“By growing B.C.’s own factory-built home construction industry, everyone from multi-generational families to municipalities will be able to quickly build single homes, duplexes and triplexes on land they already own,” Eby said.

The party said legislation passed by the NDP government last year was a “game changer” for the factory-built home construction industry in the province, where there are currently 10 certified manufacturing plants.

Muchalat Construction Ltd. is one of them, and owner Tania Formosa said pre-approved structures speed up the building process considerably.

She said her company’s projects currently take 12 to 13 months to complete, from startup design to getting the house on site.

“If everything was in place and fast-tracked at the beginning and we were able to just fly along, it would probably take three months off the full schedule,” she said.

She said a main issue for modular manufacturers is that work gets stalled if they run into roadblocks with jurisdictions or BC Housing in the approval process.

“There’s no option for the manufacturer to start another project,” she said. “Having our products approved prior to the process would be amazing.”

She acknowledged the potential drawback of pre-approved designs creating a cookie-cutter look for some neighbourhoods.

“Unfortunately (what) happens in your jurisdiction, in your city, is it ends up looking a lot the same, but what are your priorities?”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 27, 2024.

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Real eState

Housing starts up in six largest cities but construction still not closing supply gap

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The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. says construction of new homes in Canada’s six largest cities rose four per cent year-over-year during the first half of 2024, but housing starts were still not enough to meet growing demand.

The agency says growth in housing starts was driven by significant gains in Calgary, Edmonton and Montreal.

A total of 68,639 units began construction, the second strongest figure since 1990, however the rate of housing starts per capita meant activity was around the historical average and not enough “to reduce the existing supply gap and improve affordability for Canadians.”

The report says new home construction trends varied significantly across the markets studied, as Toronto, Vancouver and Ottawa saw declines ranging from 10 to 20 per cent from the same period last year.

Apartment starts in the six regions increased slightly, driven by construction of new units for rent, as nearly half of the apartments started in the first half of 2024 were purpose-built rentals.

But condominium apartment starts fell in the first six months of the year in most cities, a trend which the agency predicts will continue amid soft demand as developers struggle to reach minimum pre-construction sales required.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 26, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Real eState

Mortgage rule changes will help spark demand, but supply is ‘core’ issue: economist

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TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.

The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.

However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.

Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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