Despite calls for change, Liberals still hold four-point advantage over opposition Conservatives
March 17, 2021 – At a time when a 2021 election seems likely, and as CPC leader Erin O’Toole continues his so far unsuccessful attempt to break through with the electorate, Conservatives will gather this week for their party’s policy convention.
They will do so knowing half of Canadians express a desire for a change in government, yet show little want for an election before fall, and still give the incumbent Liberals a slight edge in vote intention.
According to the latest data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute, half of Canadians (49%) say it’s time to switch governing parties in Ottawa, led almost entirely by past Conservative voters (88% say this), and at least one-in-three past NDP (39%), Green (35%), and Bloc Quebecois (40%) voters, respectively. Notably, more than one-in-seven (17%) of those who supported the Liberals in 2019 say the same. About a third of the country (35%) disagree.
With COVID-19 vaccinations now underway, the notion of a spring election is overwhelmingly unpopular. As Canadians focus on an end to pandemic life, summer is also considered too soon by 63 per cent. A fall call is palatable to most, however, as two-thirds say an election between September and December would be appropriate.
Whenever an election is called, the priority for the Conservative Party will be figuring out how to endear their leader to a broader subsection of the population. Just 29 per cent of Canadians have a favourable view of Erin O’Toole, while positive perceptions of Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh hover in the mid 40’s.
More Key Findings:
Current vote intention finds the Liberal Party holding a four-point advantage over the CPC (35% to 31%), while the NDP is chosen by 19 per cent.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has an approval rating of 45 per cent, unchanged from February.
Erin O’Toole’s favourability with 2019 CPC voters is 64 per cent. Comparatively, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh holds a favourability of 85 per cent and Justin Trudeau has an approval rating of 81 per cent among their party’s 2019 voters.
Older Canadians are less inclined to head to the polls this year. Those 65 years of age and older are least likely to say that an election at any point in 2021 would be inappropriate compared to younger residents.
The Liberal Party has a 15-point vote intention advantage in the Greater Toronto Area and Metro Vancouver. In Greater Montreal, 47 per cent would vote for the Liberals and just 10 per cent for the CPC.
About ARI
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.
INDEX:
Part One: Should there be an election in 2021?
Pre-autumn election seen as inappropriate by most Canadians
Half say it’s time for a change in government, whenever an election is called
Part Two: Leadership
Trudeau approval
Will CPC convention provide a kick-start for O’Toole?
Part Three: Vote intention
Region and major urban areas
Age and gender
Part One: Should there be an election in 2021?
Talk of a 2021 federal election began early this year. After reports that the governing Liberals were targeting an election call for later the spring, a committee in the House of Commons, including Liberal members, urged the Prime Minister not to send Canadians to the polls until the COVID-19 pandemic has ended. Timelines for vaccination have been moved up for many jurisdictions as the rollout of cross-country inoculation has ramped up, with some now suggesting that June may be the target of such a call, if not the fall. The Liberals decision to delay a 2021 budget has some also questioning whether the release of a budget later in the year maybe an election-related strategy, though the government has claimed that pandemic-related challenges are the reason for the delay.
Pre-autumn election seen as inappropriate by most Canadians
For most Canadians, any election timeline that aims for the spring or summer would be inappropriate. Just one-quarter (23%) say that they would be comfortable with an election call before May, while slightly more than one-in-three (37%) say that a May to August date would be fine with them.
With the current timeline for vaccinations in place, each of these first two scenarios would entail some risk, as many Canadians would potentially be unvaccinated. Three provinces held relatively successful elections, B.C., Saskatchewan, and New Brunswick, under such circumstances. The more recent election in Newfoundland and Labrador has shown the potential for massive problems. After cases of COVID-19 rose in the province, the election was delayed and ultimately shifted to mail-in ballots only. The voting period has now been extended multiple times.
These opinions change considerably when Canadians are asked about an election in the fall. In this case, two-thirds (67%) feel that prospect would be appropriate:
Past Conservative voters are more anxious to get to the polls than others. Indeed, on each of the proposed timelines those who supported the CPC in 2019 are most likely to say each is appropriate. More than half (54%) would be accepting of an election during the late spring or summer, while three-quarters say a fall call is acceptable. New Democrats are closely behind in enthusiasm for an autumn vote at 70 per cent, while notably lukewarm in their support for all timelines are past Liberal voters:
Also important in these discussions are the opinions of those most at risk from the coronavirus – older Canadians. On all three of the proposed timelines, those over the age of 64 are more hesitant to say an election call would be acceptable. Three-in-five (61%) say that the fall would be fine, when initial timelines from the federal government have stated that all Canadians who want a vaccination will have had one:
Half say it’s time for a change in government, whenever an election is called
While the appetite for an election in the coming months is varied, half of the population (49%) now says that it is time for a change in government. This opinion is partially counteracted by one-in-three (35%) who disagree:
There are pronounced regional divisions on this issue, which speak to the relative satisfaction with the federal government. In Alberta (71%) and Saskatchewan (73%), seven-in-ten residents say it’s time for the Liberals to go. In Quebec, 47 per cent say a change in government is not needed.
Age is less of a source of division on this question. Close to half of Canadians across all age groups say that a change is needed, though older Canadians are more opposed to that notion (see detailed tables).
Notably, more than one-in-seven (17%) past Liberal voters indicate it’s time to switch out the party they supported in 2019, while at least one-in-three past NDP, Bloc Quebecois, and Green voters agree. Past CPC voters are near unanimous:
Part Two: Leadership
Trudeau approval
Opinions of the Prime Minister’s performance this month are largely the same as last. One-in-ten (9%) say they strongly approve, while 36 per cent moderately approve. One-in-three (35%) strongly disapprove of the work done by Trudeau:
As mentioned, at 45 per cent Trudeau’s approval is unchanged from last month, and down nine-points from last year at close to this time (April).
Much of the PM’s decline in the last few months has largely been driven by dissatisfaction over delays and uncertainty over the progress of COVID-19 vaccination. With jabs now being administered at a brisker pace (some provinces have moved up their timelines for the population to receive their first doses in recent weeks), it is as yet unknown whether Trudeau’s fortunes stand to improve.
Will CPC convention provide a kick-start for O’Toole?
Ahead of the Conservative Party’s Policy Convention, a three-day virtual event, the data show the CPC has more work to do convincing all but the converted to consider the Conservatives. Leader Erin O’Toole continues to lag behind other party leaders in public opinion. More than six months into the job, just 29 per cent of Canadians view him favourably, while half (51%) feel differently. For New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh, the story is more positive. Nearly half (46%) view him favourably. Singh recently committed that he would not vote to bring down the current government as long as the pandemic continues:
Thus far, O’Toole has only lost ground among the Canadian public, down seven points from his high mark, recorded shortly after his successful leadership campaign:
*Quebec only
O’Toole’s lack of public connection is perhaps most evident when looking at his net favourability. Subtracting those who view him unfavourably from those who view him favourably, he garners a -22. This ratio is by far the worst of the major federal party leaders:
The Conservative Party convention may provide an opportunity to feature Erin O’Toole in order to bring around 2019 CPC supporters and shore up the Conservative base. Just two-thirds (64%) of the party’s past voters view him favourably while one-quarter (24%) do not. Comparing these to other parties’ partisan supporters, one can see the deficit this portends:
The economy and government spending are by far the highest priorities for those aforementioned 2019 Conservative Party supporters. Half (49%) say that the deficit is the biggest federal issue currently, while the same number say this of the economy (48%) more broadly. Past Conservatives are notably far less concerned about the coronavirus and health care than past NDP and Liberal supporters:
Part Three: Vote intention
While the Conservative Party formalizes its new agenda and the Liberals build an upcoming budget, both parties appear well shy of a majority if an election were held in the near term. The Liberals lead in vote intention at 35 per cent, four points ahead of the opposition CPC at 31 per cent. The NDP finds itself in a familiar position, the preferred party of one-in-five Canadians (19%).
This represents little change in vote intention since the beginning of the year:
Region and major urban areas
All three parties generate significant but not overwhelming support in British Columbia. The CPC dominates eastward until reaching Ontario, where the Liberals garner a six-point advantage. The Liberals hold an important 10-point advantage over the Bloc Quebecois in Quebec and a significant advantage in Atlantic Canada.
*Because its small population precludes drawing discrete samples over multiple waves, data on Prince Edward Island are not released.
Checking in on the vote picture in Canada’s urban centres, the Liberals hold large leads in Metro Vancouver, the GTA and Montreal, while larger cities in Alberta and Saskatchewan lean heavily Conservative. Perhaps most interesting is Winnipeg, where all three major parties garner at least 29 per cent of the intended vote:
Age and gender
Importantly for the CPC, the party is first choice for all male age groups. Meanwhile, young women prefer both the NDP and Liberals over the Conservatives, while women over the age of 34 offer high levels of support to the incumbents:
For detailed results by age, gender, region, education, and other demographics, click here.
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from February 26 – March 3, 2021 among a representative randomized sample of 5,004 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 1.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI. Detailed tables are found at the end of this release.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.
Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.
A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”
Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.
“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.
In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”
“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”
Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.
Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.
Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.
“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.
“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.
“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”
Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.
“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”
NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”
“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.
Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.
She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.
Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.
Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.
The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.
Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.
“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.
“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”
The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.
In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.
“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”
In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.
“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”
Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.
Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.
“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”
In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.
In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.
“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”
Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.
“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”
The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.
“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.
“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
