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Toronto home sales are in a nosedive and experts are very worried

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Soaring lending rates continue to paralyze Toronto’s real estate market, and while this has meant potentially lower prices for would-be buyers, hardly anyone is purchasing anything given the astonishing amount they would have to dole out in mortgage interest.

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While the average cost for a home in Canada at large is still on the rise despite this, the GTA remains unaffordable as heck at around $1,118,374  for the typical place — but stakeholders are still concerned about the lack of activity.

The latest report from the Building Industry and Land Development Association (BILD) notes that the market for new homes specifically in the GTA “slowed down considerably” last month in response to recent (and future) rate hikes, with 18 per cent fewer new residences swapping hands than in July of last year.

This marks a whopping 50 per cent drop from the 10-year average sales volume.

New condo sales — for which the average price has just dropped for the first time in a decade — were down 39 per cent from this time last year, hitting the lowest number of condominium apartments ever sold in the month of July in 23 years.

The number of people purchasing single-family homes, meanwhile, was substantially up (281 per cent year-over-year), as, presumably, wealthy people who can afford a detached house or townhouse in the city in the first place likely care less about a few extra per cent in interest, or don’t have a mortgage to worry about at all.

This figure, at 362 total for the month, was still 51 per cent below the decade average for the region’s usually red-hot market, perhaps due to additional factors like the foreign buyer ban meant to increase access to real estate for people who actually live here.

Amid all of this, BILD says that prices fell somewhat (9 per cent for new condos year-over-year and 13.5 per cent for new homes), and slightly more housing stock remained on the market unsold than in the month prior.

This should be considered good news by experts who continue to bemoan the lack of supply to address our current housing crisis — that is, should be, if it weren’t due to most people not being able to afford anything at all.

“It is time the federal government recognized its role in helping provinces, municipalities and the industry meet housing demand pressures for which its own policies and federal institutions are in part responsible,” BILD’s CEO says in the release sharing these latest stats.

“[There are] measures within the government’s scope that can help with affordability and new housing supply… We call on the federal government to act with the urgency the situation demands.”

Yes, to developers looking to make the most money possible from people buying their product, of course the current landscape feels urgent. For most of us, it’s just a continuation of the never-ending, worsening story of a lack of affordability in our home city, even if we’re renting.

Lead photo by
Property GA Inc., Brokerage via Strata.ca

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China Evergrande Suspends Trading as New Trouble Roils Property Market – The New York Times

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Toronto Restaurant Real Estate Putting A Squeeze On Owners – Storeys

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Why China’s Real Estate Crisis Is Different

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(Bloomberg) —

The troubles facing highly indebted property developers in China have dominated conversations about the Asian nation’s economy and markets this year. Yet according to Rayliant Global Advisors’ Jason Hsu, there’s an important distinction between this housing crisis and previous ones elsewhere: The developers are the ones who are over-leveraged—not households. And that difference is guiding policymakers’ response.Hsu, chief investment officer of Rayliant and a co-founder of Research Affiliates, joined the What Goes Up podcast to discuss China and other emerging markets. “Chinese households are not levered when it comes to real estate,” he says. “They’re not levered because they can buy their first home with money down—and they pay quite a bit money down—and they generally have to sort of have enough income to cover the payment. That bankruptcy you’re seeing in the developer sector is very engineered. On the household side, there’s not a balance-sheet crisis, because they’re not buying real estate on leverage. So they really don’t think there’s a meaningful problem there.”

 

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