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Toronto real estate is sitting on a high-risk bubble: report – NOW Toronto

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A Swiss investment bank ranks Toronto as third most at-risk for a bubble of all major cities in the world


Toronto real estate prices are so inflated that a Swiss investment bank is warning the city is sitting on a high-risk bubble.

Toronto ranks as the third most over-priced major city in the world, according to the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index.

Fair value would score -0.5 to 0.5 on UBS’s bubble index. Over-valued scores between 0.5 and 1.5. The city, where the average house price is $1,012,506, has a 1.96 rating. That is nearly four times as high as New York, which UBS calls over-valued at 0.56.

Among the most at-risk cities in the world, Toronto falls just behind Munich and Frankfurt. They score 2.35 and 2.26, respectively. And Toronto is at a greater risk for a “sharp correction” than Hong Kong (1.79) and Paris (1.68).

The only other Canadian city on the UBS index is Vancouver. Like Toronto, the west coast city was designated an at-risk bubble in 2018 with a 1.92 score. But Vancouver prices are milder now. In 2020, Vancouver is overvalued at 1.37, according to UBS. It’s still has a higher score than fellow “over-valued” cities like London, Tokyo, Los Angeles and San Francisco.

Dubai, Singapore, Milan and Madrid are among the cities the UBS index deems fair-valued.

Toronto real estate decline?

The report from UBS is the most recent warning that Toronto real estate prices could see a sharp decline.

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s spring outlook suggested that the average Toronto house price could bottom out at $739,000 in 2021. A recent report from Moody’s made a more conservative prediction that Toronto home prices could fall nine per cent next year.

These predictions repeatedly warn that the COVID-19 impact on employment and immigration will make home prices a little more humble.

The Canadian government and banks are delaying the COVID-19 impact with low mortgage rates, deferrals and financial assistance via CERB and other programs. But the UBS report argues that a decline in the rental market and the rapid inflation of pricing from the previous dozen years are reasons to expect a correction. The rising Canadian dollar will also disincentivize foreign investment.

But the hot Toronto real estate market repeatedly shrug off such sky is falling concerns.

Average house prices in Toronto broke ceilings in June, July and then August. We do not yet have data for September.

@justsayrad


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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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