adplus-dvertising
Connect with us

Real eState

Toronto real estate market is headed for a cliff – NOW Magazine

Published

 on

is toronto real estate overvalued



Condo supplies in Toronto will help drive home prices down further


Toronto real estate prices are headed for a cliff. The condo market will drag it further down according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC).

“Anticipated increases in the supply of condominium apartments will lead to softening prices next year,” says the CMHC in an email to NOW.

Toronto home prices hit an all time high in June. But the CMHC has been warning that those prices will begin plunging in the fall. Unemployment and low immigration due to the COVID-19 pandemic are two main factors.

According to the CMHC, the lack of demand for oil on a global scale is another factor. Restricted mobility during the pandemic is leading to falling oil prices. That will further exacerbate the impact on oil-producing provinces and Canada’s economy. Extended mortgage deferral deadlines, lower mortgage rates and government stimulus packages are all meant to soften the blow.

Increase in Toronto real estate supply

According to the Canadian Bankers Association (CBA), more than 760,000 Canadians have opted to defer their mortgages or skip payments. That’s about 16 per cent among those with mortgages in bank portfolios.

There will be an increase in Toronto real estate supply from homeowners who can no longer defer mortgages. That supply will couple with inventory from the condo market fuelled partly by short-term rental restrictions during the pandemic.

“More units could also sit on the market longer as more buyers wait on the sidelines,” the CMHC says. They attribute that decline in demand to job losses and general financial uncertainty.

“A significant number of condominium units under construction (54,000 units currently) will make its way to the resale pool and will further increase supply.”

Condo rental market

The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) is reporting how hard the condominium rental market got hit in the year’s second quarter. According to TREBB, GTA realtors reported 7320 apartment rentals in Q2, which is down 24.8 per cent from the same time last year. Meanwhile, the number of rental listings were up by 42 per cent from last year.

“There are two key take-aways from the Q2 2020 rental market statistics,” says TRREB president Lisa Patel in a statement. “First, COVID-19 clearly impacted the demand for rental condominium apartments, due to restrictions on showing units and job losses across many sectors of the economy. Second, we saw the continuation of the pattern experienced over the past year, with year-over-year growth in rental listings far outstripping growth in rental transactions.”

Average condo rental prices also dipped to $2,083 for a one-bedroom and  $2,713 for a two-bedroom.

“Increased choice led to more negotiating power for renters, resulting in year-over-year declines in average rents in the second quarter of 2020,” says TRREB’s chief market analyst, Jason Mercer, in a statement.

Condo sales

Home owners can no longer use Home Equity Line Of Credits as down payments on investment properties. WE Realty broker Odeen Eccleston tells NOW that the new CMHC rule will reduce the pool of potential buyers.

Re/Max Hallmark Realty broker Meray Mansour adds that declines in condo demand will be felt more outside of the central core. She says highly saturated areas like Yonge and Eglinton are also vulnerable. Mansour adds that COVID-19 is forcing people to spend a bulk of their time indoors while trying to keep social distance, so elevators and a lack of outdoor space has made condos less appealing.

However, the average condo sale prices still managed to rise by 5.1 per cent year-over-year to $619,707 in Q2, according to TREBB. That increase occurred while listings were down 21.6 per cent and sales dropped 50.8 per cent year-over-year.

TRREB has also reported that city council has approved a plan to create more housing opportunities in Toronto. TRREB is specifically pursuing options that fall between detached and semi-detached homes and condos.

Toronto real estate right now

Odeen Eccleston has observed an exodus from the city inspired by COVID-19. People who are working from home are now swapping out their expensive Toronto real estate for cottage country.

“They can get so much more for so much less in a lot of these cottage countries,” says Eccleston.

But for now, Eccleston and Mansour say the heat is still on in the Greater Toronto real estate market.

“In the 905, especially in the below $700K price range, its still on fire,” says Eccleston.

“I’ve even sold a few condos with multiple offers in the Beaches and surrounding areas,” Mansour adds. She notes that some condos remain appealing despite the trends. “In areas like the Beach and Leslieville, or places where condos are more low-rise loft or boutique style, the demand is still there. Especially condos with really large terraces.”

Both realtors are cautious of the impending downturn. However, they wonder if Toronto’s real estate market can whether it better than expected. For now, they’re telling sellers to be safe and act now before we reach that cliff.

@JustSayRad


Let’s block ads! (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Real eState

Banks Believe They Are Well-Prepared for Commercial Real Estate Fallout – The Wall Street Journal

Published

 on


[unable to retrieve full-text content]

Banks Believe They Are Well-Prepared for Commercial Real Estate Fallout  The Wall Street Journal

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Real eState

Home buyer savings plans boost demand, not affordability – Financial Post

Published

 on


Robert McLister: Tax shelters don’t make housing more affordable, but those with the cash would be foolish not to use them

Article content

With housing unaffordability near its worst-ever level, our trusty leaders are on a quest to right their housing wrongs and get more young people into homes.

Part of Ottawa’s big strategy to “help” is promoting tax-sheltered savings accounts and pumping up their contribution limits. That, of course, stimulates real estate demand amidst Canada’s population and housing supply crises. But save that thought.

Advertisement 2

Article content

Article content

First-time buyers now have three government piggy banks to stockpile cash for a down payment:

1. The 32-year-old RRSP Home Buyers’ Plan — which lets you deduct contributions from your income to defer taxes and then borrow from the account interest-free for your down payment (as long as you wait 90-plus days to withdraw any contributions);

2. The 15-year-old Tax-free Savings Account (TFSA) — which lets you save after-tax dollars, grow your money tax-free and withdraw it without the taxman taking a bite;

3. The one-year-old First Home Savings Account (FHSA) — which is a combination of an RRSP and TFSA. It lets you deduct contributions from income, compound it tax-free and never pay tax on withdrawals used to buy a home. You can even save the deduction for a year when you need it more — when you’re earning more money.

Assuming you have the funds and contribution room, these tax shelters can combine to help you amass a supersized down payment.

“Looking at the FHSA alone, with the max annual contribution room of $8,000 for 2023 and 2024, a potential first-time home buyer could have as much as $16,000 deposited in the account today for a down payment,” says Eric Larocque, chief mortgage operations officer at Questrade’s Community Trust Company.

Article content

Advertisement 3

Article content

“If you also add in the cumulative contribution room of $95,000 for the TFSA, it amounts to $111,000 in potential funds available — and that’s before incorporating investment gains from either account.”

And it doesn’t stop there. RRSP, TFSA and FHSA savings limits keep increasing. If first-timers have enough contribution room, down payment savers in 2024 can sock away even more in these tax-sheltered troves.

“Factoring in the recent changes to the Home Buyers’ Plan, which now permits RRSP withdrawals of up to $60,000 — up from $35,000 — we land at a potential total of $171,000 in deposited funds that can be tapped for a first-time home buyer’s down payment,” Larocque adds.

That’s quite a wad — easily enough to cover the 20 per cent ($139,706) down payment required to avoid mandatory (and pricey) default insurance on the average home. Canada’s average abode is now worth $698,530 by the way, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

Here’s the rub: Canada’s living costs are sky-high, and real disposable income has trended downward. So, how’s an average first-time buyer household, raking in less than six figures, supposed to amass such a stash?

Advertisement 4

Article content

Based on national averages, saving 10 per cent of one’s pre-tax income per year (who does that?) would take a young FTB couple over 15 years to sock away $140,000. History shows what would happen to home values if you waited 15 years — they’d jet off without you.

If you have no other resources and your bet is that historical appreciation rates continue — despite slower population growth, more building and potentially higher long-term rates — you’re better off saving less and buying sooner with a five per cent down insured mortgage.

So, does Big Brother really expect your typical first-time buyer to max out all these savings plans? Nope. But hey, throwing a buffet of options at you sure paints a pretty picture of government effort, doesn’t it?

Ottawa’s dirty little secret is that these nifty programs crank up demand, turning renters into buyers. So don’t bet on them making the home-owning dream any cheaper, for first-timers or anyone else.

Take advantage of them anyway.

The government sets limits on these tax shelters with well-off home buyers in mind. One lucky bunch who can make use of all three down payment savings plans is the first-timer with prosperous parents.

Advertisement 5

Article content

Such buyers can make a withdrawal from their parental ATM (a living inheritance, some call it), deposit that cash in all three savings vehicles above and reap: hefty income tax savings or deferrals (thanks to the FHSA and RRSP deductions); tax-free/tax-deferred growth on the investments; and tax-free withdrawals if the money is used to buy a qualifying home (albeit, you’ll have to pay the RRSP HBP back over 15 years, starting five years after your withdrawal).

Recommended from Editorial

  1. Unfortunately, not even the world’s most powerful banker, Jerome Powell, knows if Wednesday’s worrisome inflation data is a bump or a new trend.

    How U.S. inflation could threaten Canadian mortgage rates

  2. Canada announced Thursday it will loosen the rules on mortgages to allow first-time buyers to take out 30-year loans when they purchase newly-built homes.

    What 30-year amortizations mean for mortgage consumers

  3. Houses in Langley, B.C.

    Skepticism on interest rate cuts has mortgage market on edge

The more opportunities it gives people to save for a down payment, the more Ottawa worsens the imbalance between purchase demand and supply. And that, of course, boosts real estate values skyward — which is dandy for existing owners but contradictory to the government’s affordability messaging.

But hey, these tax treats are ripe for the picking. Home shoppers with the means — especially those with deep-pocketed parents — might as well take advantage of all three accounts.

Robert McLister is a mortgage strategist, interest rate analyst and editor of MortgageLogic.news. You can follow him on X at @RobMcLister.

Article content

Comments

Join the Conversation

This Week in Flyers

Adblock test (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Real eState

$93 Billion Real Estate Giant Is Betting The Market Is About To Hit Rock Bottom – Yahoo Finance

Published

 on


$93 Billion Real Estate Giant Is Betting The Market Is About To Hit Rock Bottom

$93 Billion Real Estate Giant Is Betting The Market Is About To Hit Rock Bottom

Successful real estate investors have long followed the adage: When there is blood in the street, buy property.

Historically, this approach has yielded dividends, and it explains the mindset behind a new venture from Hines, a real estate giant with over $93 billion in assets under management. Hines recently announced a new platform called Hines Private Wealth Solutions that seeks to capitalize on the recent troubles in the real estate industry.

The management at Hines has been carefully watching the real estate industry for decades, and they believe that today’s market presents the perfect opportunity for investors to buy distressed assets and sell them at a profit in the future. When you consider that nearly $4 trillion in commercial real estate loans are set to mature between now and 2027, it’s easy to see the logic behind Hines Private Wealth Solutions.

300x250x1

The developers behind many of those projects took out loans assuming they would be able to refinance at pre-COVID interest rates. Considering that current interest rates are about double what they were before COVID-19, that assumption looks more like a losing bet every day. It also means there will be a lot of foreclosures that a well-positioned fund can snap up for pennies on the dollar.

Don’t Miss:

That’s where Hines Private Wealth Solutions seeks to step into the picture. It’s already contracted with investing heavyweight Paul Ferraro, former head of Carlyle Private Wealth Group, and raised $10 billion in funds for the new project. It will offer its clients a range of investment options, including:

In addition to these offerings, Hines will also give personal guidance to its investors on how to best manage their real estate assets. It is targeting investors who want to turn away from the traditional 60/40 investment model by channeling more money into real estate and away from other alternative investments. Hines is banking on the idea that high interest rates and high inflation will be around for a while.

Trending

When that happens, it becomes more important for investors to hold inflation-resistant assets. That’s a big part of why Hines is betting that real estate is near the bottom after years of declining profits resulting from high interest rates and major losses in the commercial sector. Hines’s conclusion that now is the time to buy real estate is based on long-term company research showing that real estate typically declines after a 15- to 17-year-long growth period.

Its research shows that the decline normally lasts around two years, which is about the same length of time the real estate market has been suffering from high prices and high interest rates. Theoretically, that makes this the perfect time to make aggressive moves in the real estate market, and the Hines Private Wealth Fund was conceived to allow investors to take advantage of current market conditions.

Despite the deep troubles facing today’s real estate industry, it’s not hard to see the logic in Hines’s approach.

“This is a great vintage, it’s a great moment. This real estate correction began really over two years ago, right when the Fed started raising interest rates,” Hines global Chief Investment Officer David Steinbach told Fortune magazine. “So, we’re two years into a cycle, which means we’re near the end.”

If Hines is correct, real estate investors will have a lot of good bargains with high upside to choose from in the next 12 to 24 months. The good news is that even if you’re not wealthy enough to buy into the Hines Private Wealth Solution, there may still be plenty of opportunity for you to adopt their investment philosophy and start scouting for an undervalued, distressed asset to scoop up. Keep your eyes open and be ready.

Read Next:

“ACTIVE INVESTORS’ SECRET WEAPON” Supercharge Your Stock Market Game with the #1 “news & everything else” trading tool: Benzinga Pro – Click here to start Your 14-Day Trial Now!

Get the latest stock analysis from Benzinga?

This article $93 Billion Real Estate Giant Is Betting The Market Is About To Hit Rock Bottom originally appeared on Benzinga.com

© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.

Adblock test (Why?)

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending