Back in 2016, Donald Trump campaigned on a platform that included a much harsher stance toward trade with China, and the US-China Trade War was a big deal while he was in office. But the Biden administration has quietly continued the Trump tariff regime and even enacted more stringent restrictions targeting China’s use of technology, including on semiconductors. Now that Trump looks set to get the Republican presidential nomination again, he’s suggesting even higher tariffs — of 60% or more — on Chinese goods. What effect would that actually have on the US economy and global trade? Would it lead to higher prices for Americans when the country is still struggling with inflation? Or would it result in a slowing of the economy that actually mutes prices? Would US domestic manufacturing ramp up to fill the gap? Or would we simply import more from other countries? In this episode, we speak with Tom Orlik, chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, and Mackenzie Hawkins, US industrial policy reporter for Bloomberg News, who have published an in-depth analysis of the impact of these potential tariffs. This transcript has been lightly edited for clarity.
Key insights from the pod:
What do tariffs do economically? — 5:22
Tariffs been under Trump and Biden? — 7:13
How China tariffs became consensus in DC — 9:07
Manufacturing protectionism ex-China — 13:04
Why Trump’s tariffs didn’t spark inflation — 15:59
What 60% tariffs would mean for the US economy — 17:28
Knock-on effects from more tariffs — 18:50
The clean energy transition and tariffs — 22:28
The perceived threat from China EVs — 24:55
Russian-China economic cooperation — 27:41
How ‘leaky’ would more China tariffs be? — 31:58
China’s perception of Biden vs. Trump — 34:40
