Politics

Trudeau goes into 2024 in dire need of a better story to tell

Published

10 months ago

January 2, 2024

The memo sent to staff in the Prime Minister’s Office to announce the hiring of Max Valiquette as the government’s new executive director of communications said the former marketing executive would be focused on, among other things, “aligning the entire team under a clear narrative.”

In politics, a clear narrative isn’t everything, but it’s a lot. And at least one of the reasons for the Liberal government’s struggles in 2023 might be that Justin Trudeau’s side lacked a compelling narrative — a tidy story to tell about itself and the country — or didn’t do enough to be heard.

There are very real problems abroad in the land that might explain why popular sentiment toward Trudeau and the Liberals has eroded over the past year, and why opinion polls this fall gave the Conservative Party the biggest advantage it has enjoyed since Trudeau became leader of the Liberal Party more than a decade ago.

Though the pandemic — arguably the hardest three years for Canadians since the Second World War — officially came to an end in May, it has not given way to a golden new dawn.

Inflation has cooled considerably from its high point in 2022, but it is still higher than most Canadians are used to and the impact of that peak still lingers. Interest rates have risen as a consequence of the Bank of Canada’s attempts to quell inflation. With construction failing to keep pace with demand, the cost of housing has surged. And the opioid epidemic persists.

Canadians have reasons to feel worried or frustrated — although the extent of that downturn in the national mood might still be surprising.

In 2014, a year before Trudeau came to office, Pollara found that 45 per cent of Canadians were optimistic about the future of the middle class. Two years ago, in the midst of the pandemic, that figure was at 53 per cent.

A woman uses her phone to take a photo of herself with Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau during the Vancouver Pride Parade in Vancouver, B.C. on August 3, 2014. (Darryl Dyck/The Canadian Press)

But when Pollara (whose chief strategy officer is Dan Arnold, Trudeau’s former pollster) asked the question again this November, just 31 per cent said they were optimistic.

Beyond inflation, interest rates and the real estate market, there might be other reasons to worry about the future. The threat of climate change is now alarmingly apparent — 2023 should be remembered for the record-smashing wildfires and the smoke that shrouded the sun and poisoned the air.

The United States, our loud neighbour, remains riven by political turmoil — dysfunction that threatens the basic tenets of that country’s democracy.

But whatever the exact reasons for that waning optimism, those numbers pose a daunting political challenge for a prime minister who made a focus on the middle class a central part of the agenda he brought to office in 2015. When voters are dealing with real problems, it can also be a lot harder to tell them an optimistic story — especially if you’ve already been in office for eight years

The political power of a good narrative

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is a skilled storyteller. He looks upon the public’s frustrations and offers a simple narrative: everything is bad, it’s all Justin Trudeau’s fault and under a Conservative government things will cost less.

If voters are mad about grocery bills or merely tired of Justin Trudeau, that message might be enough on its own to secure victory. After testing the Conservative Party’s television ads with focus groups, one pollster concluded that Poilievre’s party, like the Liberal Party in 2015, is becoming the “party of hope.”

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre is pictured in Vancouver at a housing announcement. — Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre takes part in a press event in Vancouver. B.C. on Sept. 14, 2023. (Ethan Cairns/Canadian Press)

When there are very real issues at play, it might seem trite to think about narrative. The idea of a narrative fits more comfortably with fiction than non-fiction. It can be concocted or contrived, manipulated or manipulative. It is not necessarily anchored in the truth.

And journalists and pundits probably pay too much attention to things like narrative, messaging and all the other concepts that can be filed under the broad heading of “communications.”

But the best narratives are anchored in something true. And amid the cacophony and happenstance of life, stories are necessary and powerful.

The Liberals came to office in 2015 with a series of messages — real change, better is always possible, sunny ways — that added up to a winning narrative. Trudeau, they said, was ready to lead a different kind of government that would do more to support and expand the middle class.

But it’s a lot easier to craft and maintain a narrative when you’re sitting on the opposition side of the House of Commons. Once in government, you are subject to the whims of domestic and global affairs — and the demand that you back up your story with action.

The pressure of events

Much of the spring of 2023 in Ottawa was consumed by allegations about foreign interference by agents of the Chinese government, along with the botched appointment of David Johnston as a special rapporteur tasked with looking into those reports (an inquiry will finally begin in January). Then came the controversy over the transfer of notorious serial killer Paul Bernardo to a medium-security prison.

On the day the House reconvened in September, Trudeau stood after question period and announced that the Canadian government was pursuing credible allegations of a potential link between agents of the Indian government and the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar.

Eight days later, Anthony Rota resigned as Speaker after inviting a Ukrainian war veteran to Parliament and publicly honouring him — following an extraordinary wartime address by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy — without checking to see on which side the elderly man fought. Two weeks after that, Hamas carried out its massacre of 1,200 Israeli citizens, touching off a war that has consumed the attention of governments and citizens around the world.

The At Issue panel breaks down the biggest political stories of the year, from affordability to allegations of foreign interference — all while wars fuelled global instability and division.

At the end of October, Trudeau attempted to mollify restive Liberal MPs with an awkward change to the federal carbon tax. And then Greg Fergus, Rota’s successor as Speaker, got into trouble for wearing his official robe in a video that was shown at an Ontario Liberal Party convention.

Liberals could fairly argue that many of the concerns grinding away at the government’s popularity and the public’s patience — inflation, interest rates, the cost of housing — are also somewhat beyond their control, or are at least not entirely their fault. But such explanations can only take a government so far.

And even if this was a particularly chaotic fall, it stands to reason that unforeseen things will continue to happen in 2024.

Do the Liberals have a story? Is it being heard?

The Liberals still come to the end of 2023 with several accomplishments they can point to from the last 12 months, including the continued rollout of new federal programs to provide affordable child care and dental care, and federal investments to build manufacturing centres for batteries and zero-emission vehicles.

He had a late start, but Housing Minister Sean Fraser spent the fall announcing new funding to build more homes and rewrite municipal zoning rules. And while the government advanced a series of new climate measures — clean electricity regulations, an emissions cap for the oil and gas sector, a sales mandate for zero-emissions vehicles — it appears that Canada is now on pace to meet its greenhouse gas emissions target for 2030.

Aided in part by Poilievre’s own words and actions, the Liberals also have started to write a narrative about the Conservative leader — that he’s a right-wing radical who would cut the sorts of government programs Canadians value. And if the Liberals are faced with a significant desire for change in the next election, making an argument against the alternative offered by Poilievre will be key to their hopes of retaining power.

The Liberals have managed to promote themselves over the past 12 months with announcements, Instagram videos and the like. And the prime minister has toyed with certain narrative frames and ideas — including the “promise of Canada,” an idea that Poilievre has also put front and centre at times.

But if the Liberals are trying to tell a story — if they have a story to tell — it’s not obvious that it’s being heard. If they have an argument, it might not yet be one it can boil down to a sentence. And so, the Liberal narrative is one story to watch in 2024.

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Politics

Trump is consistently inconsistent on abortion and reproductive rights

Published

4 hours ago

October 17, 2024

Anne Joseph

CHICAGO (AP) — Donald Trump has had a tough time finding a consistent message to questions about abortion and reproductive rights.

The former president has constantly shifted his stances or offered vague, contradictory and at times nonsensical answers to questions on an issue that has become a major vulnerability for Republicans in this year’s election. Trump has been trying to win over voters, especially women, skeptical about his views, especially after he nominated three Supreme Court justices who helped overturn the nationwide right to abortion two years ago.

The latest example came this week when the Republican presidential nominee said some abortion laws are “too tough” and would be “redone.”

“It’s going to be redone,” he said during a Fox News town hall that aired Wednesday. “They’re going to, you’re going to, you end up with a vote of the people. They’re too tough, too tough. And those are going to be redone because already there’s a movement in those states.”

Trump did not specify if he meant he would take some kind of action if he wins in November, and he did not say which states or laws he was talking about. He did not elaborate on what he meant by “redone.”

He also seemed to be contradicting his own stand when referencing the strict abortion bans passed in Republican-controlled states since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Trump recently said he would vote against a constitutional amendment on the Florida ballot that is aimed at overturning the state’s six-week abortion ban. That decision came after he had criticized the law as too harsh.

Trump has shifted between boasting about nominating the justices who helped strike down federal protections for abortion and trying to appear more neutral. It’s been an attempt to thread the divide between his base of anti-abortion supporters and the majority of Americans who support abortion rights.

About 6 in 10 Americans think their state should generally allow a person to obtain a legal abortion if they don’t want to be pregnant for any reason, according to a July poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Voters in seven states, including some conservative ones, have either protected abortion rights or defeated attempts to restrict them in statewide votes over the past two years.

Trump also has been repeating the narrative that he returned the question of abortion rights to states, even though voters do not have a direct say on that or any other issue in about half the states. This is particularly true for those living in the South, where Republican-controlled legislatures, many of which have been gerrymandered to give the GOP disproportionate power, have enacted some of the strictest abortion bans since Roe v. Wade was overturned.

Currently, 13 states have banned abortion at all stages of pregnancy, while four more ban it after six weeks — before many women know they’re pregnant.

Meanwhile, anti-abortion groups and their Republican allies in state governments are using an array of strategies to counter proposed ballot initiatives in at least eight states this year.

Here’s a breakdown of Trump’s fluctuating stances on reproductive rights.

Flip-flopping on Florida

On Tuesday, Trump claimed some abortion laws are “too tough” and would be “redone.”

But in August, Trump said he would vote against a state ballot measure that is attempting to repeal the six-week abortion ban passed by the Republican-controlled Legislature and signed by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.

That came a day after he seemed to indicate he would vote in favor of the measure. Trump previously called Florida’s six-week ban a “terrible mistake” and too extreme. In an April Time magazine interview, Trump repeated that he “thought six weeks is too severe.”

Trump on vetoing a national ban

Trump’s latest flip-flopping has involved his views on a national abortion ban.

During the Oct. 1 vice presidential debate, Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social that he would veto a national abortion ban: “Everyone knows I would not support a federal abortion ban, under any circumstances, and would, in fact, veto it.”

This came just weeks after Trump repeatedly declined to say during the presidential debate with Democrat Kamala Harris whether he would veto a national abortion ban if he were elected.

Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, said in an interview with NBC News before the presidential debate that Trump would veto a ban. In response to debate moderators prompting him about Vance’s statement, Trump said: “I didn’t discuss it with JD, in all fairness. And I don’t mind if he has a certain view, but I don’t think he was speaking for me.”

‘Pro-choice’ to 15-week ban

Trump’s shifting abortion policy stances began when the former reality TV star and developer started flirting with running for office.

He once called himself “very pro-choice.” But before becoming president, Trump said he “would indeed support a ban,” according to his book “The America We Deserve,” which was published in 2000.

In his first year as president, he said he was “pro-life with exceptions” but also said “there has to be some form of punishment” for women seeking abortions — a position he quickly reversed.

At the 2018 annual March for Life, Trump voiced support for a federal ban on abortion on or after 20 weeks of pregnancy.

More recently, Trump suggested in March that he might support a national ban on abortions around 15 weeks before announcing that he instead would leave the matter to the states.

Views on abortion pills, prosecuting women

In the Time interview, Trump said it should be left up to the states to decide whether to prosecute women for abortions or to monitor women’s pregnancies.

“The states are going to make that decision,” Trump said. “The states are going to have to be comfortable or uncomfortable, not me.”

Democrats have seized on the comments he made in 2016, saying “there has to be some form of punishment” for women who have abortions.

Trump also declined to comment on access to the abortion pill mifepristone, claiming that he has “pretty strong views” on the matter. He said he would make a statement on the issue, but it never came.

Trump responded similarly when asked about his views on the Comstock Act, a 19th century law that has been revived by anti-abortion groups seeking to block the mailing of mifepristone.

IVF and contraception

In May, Trump said during an interview with a Pittsburgh television station that he was open to supporting regulations on contraception and that his campaign would release a policy on the issue “very shortly.” He later said his comments were misinterpreted.

In the KDKA interview, Trump was asked, “Do you support any restrictions on a person’s right to contraception?”

“We’re looking at that and I’m going to have a policy on that very shortly,” Trump responded.

Trump has not since released a policy statement on contraception.

Trump also has offered contradictory statements on in vitro fertilization.

During the Fox News town hall, which was taped Tuesday, Trump declared that he is “the father of IVF,” despite acknowledging during his answer that he needed an explanation of IVF in February after the Alabama Supreme Court ruled that frozen embryos can be considered children under state law.

Trump said he instructed Sen. Katie Britt, R-Ala., to “explain IVF very quickly” to him in the aftermath of the ruling.

As concerns over access to fertility treatments rose, Trump pledged to promote IVF by requiring health insurance companies or the federal government to pay for it. Such a move would be at odds with the actions of much of his own party.

Even as the Republican Party has tried to create a national narrative that it is receptive to IVF, these messaging efforts have been undercut by GOP state lawmakers, Republican-dominated courts and anti-abortion leaders within the party’s ranks, as well as opposition to legislative attempts to protect IVF access.

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The Associated Press receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

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Politics

Saskatchewan Party’s Scott Moe, NDP’s Carla Beck react to debate |

Published

5 hours ago

October 17, 2024

Anne Joseph

Saskatchewan‘s two main political party leaders faced off in the only televised debate in the lead up to the provincial election on Oct. 28. Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe and NDP Leader Carla Beck say voters got a chance to see their platforms. (Oct. 17, 2024)

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Politics

Saskatchewan political leaders back on campaign trail after election debate

Published

5 hours ago

October 17, 2024

Anne Joseph

REGINA – Saskatchewan‘s main political leaders are back on the campaign trail today after hammering each other in a televised debate.

Saskatchewan Party Leader Scott Moe is set to make an announcement in Moose Jaw.

Saskatchewan NDP Leader Carla Beck is to make stops in Regina, Saskatoon and Prince Albert.

During Wednesday night’s debate, Beck emphasized her plan to make life more affordable and said people deserve better than an out-of-touch Saskatchewan Party government.

Moe said his party wants to lower taxes and put money back into people’s pockets.

Election day is Oct. 28.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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