Connect with us

Economy

Trump's lead over Biden on the economy has vanished – CNN

Published

 on


In a CNN poll released Tuesday, Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden were tied among registered voters at 49% apiece on the question of who would handle the economy better. Among likely voters, Biden gets 50%, compared with 48% for Trump, a statistical dead heat.
It’s not an anomaly either. The two candidates were essentially tied on the issue in the last CNN poll taken August 28 – September 1.
The findings represent a sharp drop in support for Trump in what had previously been his greatest strength. In May, 54% of registered voters said Trump would handle the economy better, compared with 42% for Biden.
The fact that Trump’s lead over Biden on the economy has vanished underscores the fragile state of the recovery from the coronavirus recession.
“People are still worried about evictions, foreclosures and small businesses going under,” said Greg Valliere, chief US policy strategist at AGF Investments. “For an awful lot of people, there is still anxiety that the economy has not come all the way back and may not for some time.”

Unemployment remains elevated

At 7.9%, the unemployment rate is the highest it has ever been ahead of a presidential election since the government started tracking the monthly rate in 1948. Although the United States rapidly recovered more than half the jobs lost during the pandemic, the recovery is losing momentum.
The number of unemployed people who permanently lost their old jobs hit a seven year-high of 3.8 million in September. What many had hoped were furloughs or temporary job losses are becoming permanent.
Parts of the US economy are enjoying a fast recovery. In particular, the housing market is booming as Millennials and city dwellers venture into the suburbs and thanks to record-low mortgage rates.
Yet large swaths of the economy are still hurting — and may continue to until a vaccine is widely available. Leisure activities like eating at restaurants, staying at hotels and flying remain below pre-pandemic levels. Cineworld, the second largest cinema group in the world, warned it will suspend operations at all of its theaters in the United States and United Kingdom.
CNN Business’ Economic Recovery Dashboard shows the US economy is only 80% as strong as it was before the pandemic. In other words, it’s got a long road back.
Against that backdrop, Trump’s poll numbers on the economy have stumbled.
The CNN poll found that 48% of voters approve of the way Trump is handling the economy, while 48% disapprove. In the previous CNN poll, Trump had 50% approval on this issue, compared with 45% disapproval.

Goldman Sachs: Blue wave could boost the economy

The fact that Biden has closed the gap against Trump on the economy suggests the president’s warnings of economic doom if he loses are not working.
Trump warned in an all-caps tweet Monday that Democrats would “shut our economy and jobs down” if they win in November. Yet some on Wall Street are telling their clients the opposite.
Goldman Sachs has concluded that a Democratic sweep would mean a faster economic recovery because it would “sharply raise the probability” of a fiscal stimulus package of at least $2 trillion. The bank also pointed to Biden’s longer-term spending plans on infrastructure, climate, health care and education.
Likewise, Moody’s Analytics found that Biden’s economic proposals, if enacted, would create 7.4 million more jobs than Trump’s would.
“Their plans couldn’t be more different,” Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, wrote in a CNN Business perspectives piece. “Based on our analysis, Biden has it right, and Trump has it wrong.”

Bragging about the stock market

Trump has repeatedly pointed to the booming stock market as proof of his economic success. The S&P 500 has surged by a staggering 53% since the lows on March 23. The Nasdaq, home to pandemic winners like Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL), is up 65% since late March.
But some argue Trump’s obsession with the stock market is backfiring because many Americans can’t feel the boom on Wall Street.
Rich households have far more skin in the stock market, meaning that when stocks go up, the gains disproportionately go to the wealthiest families. As of the first quarter of 2020, the wealthiest 10% of US households owned 87% of all stocks and mutual funds, according to the Federal Reserve. Black households owned just 1.6% of stocks and mutual funds, according to the Fed.
“Bragging about the stock market could actually make some people resentful,” said AGF’s Valliere. “There’s an elite class that has done quite well in the markets, but that prosperity is not spread to voters at large.”
The prediction markets suggest there is growing confidence that Biden will defeat Trump. A bettor can pay 65 cents on PredictIt to win $1 if Biden wins the White House. It only costs 40 cents to bet that Trump will win. The 25-cent gap between Biden and Trump has more than doubled since late September.
Of course, it’s important to note that the election is still four weeks away — an eternity in the rapidly moving Trump era.
Valliere pointed out that the notorious Access Hollywood tape that many thought doomed Trump’s candidacy in 2016 wasn’t released until October 7. And Trump still managed to recover and pull off an upset that few in Washington or Wall Street saw coming.
Still, Valliere said the latest developments and polling have only given him confidence in the outcome.
“I may have to revise my prediction from just a week ago that Biden would win narrowly,” Valliere said. “Biden could win comfortably.”

Let’s block ads! (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Hilton CEO: 'We need additional stimulus to the economy, period' – Yahoo Canada Finance

Published

 on


CBC

Vancouver crime rate steady in 2020 compared to 2019, according to new stats from VPD

Vancouver’s crime levels for 2020 are similar to 2019, according to a new report from the Vancouver Police Department. Comparing the same time period, from January to September, there were 4,396 reported crimes in 2020 versus 4,397 incidents in 2019.The VPD says certain types of crime have increased — for example, serious assaults have increased by 14 per cent over the previous year — and others, like robberies, have decreased by six per cent. Crime rose in these categories compared to 2019 according to the VPD report:   * The number of homicides are higher this year: 14 in 2020 versus nine in 2019. * Serious assaults, which includes assault with a weapon, assault causing bodily harm and aggravated assault, are up by 14 per cent. * Intimate partner violence is 4.6 per cent higher than 2019. * Anti-Asian hate crime incidents increased by 138 per cent. * Break-and-enters to businesses increased by 18 per cent. * Arson incidents increased by 39 per cent. * Assaults against police officers have gone up 47 per cent.Crime fell in these categories compared to 2019:   * Robberies are down six per cent. * Property crime decreased by 20 per cent. * Theft from vehicles has decreased by 37 per cent. * Theft, like shoplifting, decreased by 26.6 per cent. * Sexual offences reported to police have decreased by 5 per cent.Const. Tania Visintin with the Vancouver Police says some of the numbers can be explained by the pandemic shutdown including a decrease in shoplifting and the increase in business break-and-enters because many businesses were closed earlier this year. There was also data collected in specific neighbourhoods. The report found that in the three-block radius around Strathcona Park, calls to police for street disorder increased by 51 per cent. They increased by nine per cent in Chinatown and Yaletown.”There have been a group of very vocal Yaletown residents that have spoken to the city, especially about what’s been going on … so we hear these concerns. And as the police, we can definitely try to target these suspects,” Visintin said. She noted that police were able to arrest four people in connection with a series of mail thefts, break-and-enters and frauds in the downtown core this week.”We have these stats now and now we can continue with more projects and more reallocating of resources,” she said.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

Agriculture, manufacturing help soften blow to P.E.I.'s economy – CBC.ca

Published

 on



The impact of COVID-19 on P.E.I.’s economy isn’t projected to be as bad as first expected, says the province’s director of economics and statistics.

Nigel Burns told a standing committee the GDP is expected to take a 3.9-per-cent hit this year, which is better than the five-per-cent-drop in previous projections.

He said up until July, the tourism industry was hit the hardest. But other industries, such as manufacturing and agriculture, haven’t been hit as hard, resulting in less of an impact on the Island’s overall economy.

Statistics Canada’s farm cash receipts report showed sales of $203.6 million for the first half of the year, the best first half since 2009. Crop sales drove most of the increase, with livestock sales up only marginally over 2019.

Burns said it’s “still not a great situation” for the overall economy.

Nigel Burns, P.E.I.’s director of economics and statistics, said while the economy is better than expected, it’s ‘still not a great situation.’ (Travis Kingdon/CBC)

“Everyone is predicting a contraction, but things are starting to tighten up and be less of an impact for the year,” he said.

“Since we don’t have such a big contraction, we won’t have as strong a rebound in the following year, but that’s OK, we have less destruction in the first place to heal in the second year.” 

Burns told the committee much still depends on how the COVID-19 situation progresses on P.E.I. and with its trading partners around the world.

More from CBC P.E.I.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

ADRIAN WHITE: Underground economy is thriving – Cape Breton Post

Published

 on


There is no doubt that COVID-19 has changed the way businesses function in Cape Breton. The pandemic has forced many entrepreneurs to reshape operating strategies for financial survival.  

Think of the new safety protocols for restaurants to protect staff and customers from virus transmission. Think sporting events playing out before near-empty stadiums and instead focused heavily on revenues generated from media broadcast of the event.  

There are just too many changes to business practices to list here in this column including the growth of digitization in our economy but I wanted to single out a few examples to illustrate some telling impacts. 

One major impact comes from folks not feeling safe to travel outside the province or eat out in restaurants due to the pandemic. Instead, they are using some of those cash savings to fund home improvement projects right here in the Cape Breton economy. That is a good thing for our community and our workers and it supports the “Shop Local-Buy Local” mantra being promoted by the local business community. 

Demand in the home improvement sector has soared and is so strong that it has led to a shortage of building materials, a rapid rise in material costs and a shortage of skilled labour to take on those home improvement projects.  

Many new contractors have entered the home improvement business in 2020 and many anxious homeowners are in hot pursuit of their services. Sometimes these contractors show up when expected to do a job and sometimes not. This has been a long-standing problem with small contractors in Cape Breton.  

Some contractors present an official written quote including HST for the project leaving a paper trail to follow while other contractors are quite prepared to take cash from the customer thereby avoiding HST. Cash leaves little trail for CRA to follow when it comes to reporting taxable income. 

This practice leads me to shed some light on the underground economy and its impact on our well-being as a province. Statistics Canada defines the underground economy as “consisting of market-based activities, whether legal or illegal, that escape measurement because of their hidden, illegal or informal nature.”  

I use the construction industry as an easy-to-understand example but you can imagine other opportunities for tax avoidance including buying illegal cigarettes, street sold cannabis, cash tips, paying cash for services, Airbnb cash rentals, or offshore bank accounts not being reported to CRA. 

In Nova Scotia, according to Statistics Canada, the underground economy was estimated to be $1.28 billion in 2018. That is near 3 per cent of provincial GDP. This is revenue that escapes government taxation. Nova Scotia’s underground economy as a share of GDP is higher than the national average which is troubling. Taxes on $1.28 billion would go a long way to offset the forecasted 2020 Nova Scotia budget deficit of $853 million due to the pandemic. 

Some of the underground economy is driven by the fact Nova Scotia has the second-highest personal income tax rates in the country. It remains one of three remaining provinces in the country that still practices “bracket creep” on your personal income tax deduction by not adjusting it to CPI on your annual income tax return.  

The higher the taxes the more incentive it provides for individuals and companies to embrace tax avoidance. Alberta has one of the lowest personal income tax rates in Canada and no provincial sales tax. It abandoned “bracket creep” on its residents decades ago. It also has one of the lowest underground economy as a share of GDP rates in the country running at 1.8 percent of provincial GDP.  

British Columbia has the highest ratio at 3.7 percent of GDP. In Canada, the underground economy was valued at a whopping $61 billion in 2018 amounting to 2.7 per cent of national GDP.  

I can only imagine with the increased demand for home improvement projects in Canada due to the pandemic that underground economic activity will likely increase 50 per cent rising close to $90 billion for 2020. 

In Nova Scotia, residential construction accounts for over 25 percent of the estimated underground economy GDP.  The next six largest contributors to the underground economy amount to about 50 per cent of Nova Scotia’s underground economy. They are retail trade, accommodation/food services, finance/insurance/real estate, manufacturing, professional/technical services and health care/social assistance.   

If we want to grow the Nova Scotia economy and thereby increase tax revenues to pay for the services we all expect, we are going to have to rethink the tax burden on individuals and businesses to bring balance and fairness to the tax environment. It is one of the reasons we struggle to recruit doctors to Cape Breton. Above-average taxes in Nova Scotia hinder economic expansion. High taxes will continue to drive the underground economy and tax avoidance until we address them. 

Adrian White is CEO of NNF Inc, Business Consultants. He resides Sydney & Baddeck and can be contacted at awhite889@gmail.com.

RELATED:

Let’s block ads! (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending