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Turkish economy to pick up some pace in 2020 after stumble: Reuters poll – The Journal Pioneer

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ISTANBUL (Reuters) – Analysts expect the Turkish economy to grow around 3% this year and next, according to a Reuters poll issued on Thursday, well shy of a government forecast as it recovers from a recession that left economic activity treading water last year.

The economy, which contracted year-on-year in three consecutive quarters to mid-2019, is likely to have logged a slight expansion of 0.2% for all of last year, going by the median estimate in the poll.

A previous poll in October predicted a contraction of 0.3% for 2019, after a bruising currency crisis in 2018.

Ankara has set an ambitious target of 5% growth for both 2020 and 2021 and has urged the central bank to lower its policy rate, which stands at 12% after aggressive easing since July, to help the recovery along.

The median estimate in the Reuters poll of 52 economists was for 2.8% gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2020, and 3% GDP growth in 2021, largely in line with the October poll.

The forecasts for this year ranged between economic expansions of 1.4% and 4.6%.

“The indicators do not point to a marked decline in the Turkish economy in the final quarter of 2019. We rather expect very weak but positive growth,” Germany’s DZ Bank said in a recent note.

“The economy … will continue on its course of recovery (in 2020), but with little momentum,” added the bank, which expects below-consensus growth for this year and next, due in part to political risk factors.

Turkish economic growth has averaged around 5% over the last two decades. But the 2018 crisis cut the Turkish lira’s value by nearly 30%, sent inflation soaring and severely crimped imports.

The poll predicted that inflation, which stood at 11.84% in December after hitting a 15-year high of more than 25% in October 2018, would ease further.

The median projection from 15 economists had annual inflation falling to 9.5% and 9% in 2020 and 2021 respectively.

Their consensus forecast was that the central bank would trim its policy rate to 11.5% by the end of the first quarter of 2020, and to 10.25% by year’s end.(For other stories from the Reuters global long-term economic outlook polls package: )

(Polling by Sarmista Sen and Indradip Ghosh; Writing by Ezgi Erkoyun; Editing by Jonathan Spicer and Kevin Liffey)

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India's Nobel laureate fears upsurge in child labour as pandemic shrivels economy – The Journal Pioneer

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By Sunil Kataria

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – For four decades Indian Nobel peace laureate Kailash Satyarthi rescued thousands of children from the scourge of slavery and trafficking but he fears all his efforts could reverse as the coronavirus pandemic forces children into labour.

“The biggest threat is that millions of children may fall back into slavery, trafficking, child labour, child marriage,” said Satyarthi who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2014 for his work to combat child labour and child trafficking in India.

As the pandemic pummels the Indian economy, pushing millions of people into poverty, families are under pressure to put their children to work to make ends meet.

While rates of child labour have declined over the last few years, about 10.1 million children are still in some form of servitude in India, according to the United Nations children’s agency UNICEF.

Across India child labourers can be found in a variety of industries such as brick kilns, carpet-weaving, garment-making, domestic service, agriculture, fisheries and mining.

Earlier this month, Satyarthi’s organisation backed by police rescued dozens of girls during a raid on a shrimp processing unit in western India.

“Once children fall into that trap they could be pulled into prostitution and could be trafficked easily … this is another danger which government have to address now,” he said, adding that he believed sexual abuse of children was also on the rise due to the pandemic.

“I cannot be satisfied even if one single child is enslaved … it means there is something wrong in our polity, in our economy, in our society, we have to ensure that not a single child is left out,” he told Reuters.

(Writing by Rupam Jain; Editing by Stephen Coates)

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India's Nobel laureate fears upsurge in child labour as pandemic shrivels economy – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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By Sunil Kataria

NEW DELHI (Reuters) – For four decades Indian Nobel peace laureate Kailash Satyarthi rescued thousands of children from the scourge of slavery and trafficking but he fears all his efforts could reverse as the coronavirus pandemic forces children into labour.

“The biggest threat is that millions of children may fall back into slavery, trafficking, child labour, child marriage,” said Satyarthi who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2014 for his work to combat child labour and child trafficking in India.

As the pandemic pummels the Indian economy, pushing millions of people into poverty, families are under pressure to put their children to work to make ends meet.

While rates of child labour have declined over the last few years, about 10.1 million children are still in some form of servitude in India, according to the United Nations children’s agency UNICEF.

Across India child labourers can be found in a variety of industries such as brick kilns, carpet-weaving, garment-making, domestic service, agriculture, fisheries and mining.

Earlier this month, Satyarthi’s organisation backed by police rescued dozens of girls during a raid on a shrimp processing unit in western India.

“Once children fall into that trap they could be pulled into prostitution and could be trafficked easily … this is another danger which government have to address now,” he said, adding that he believed sexual abuse of children was also on the rise due to the pandemic.

“I cannot be satisfied even if one single child is enslaved … it means there is something wrong in our polity, in our economy, in our society, we have to ensure that not a single child is left out,” he told Reuters.

(Writing by Rupam Jain; Editing by Stephen Coates)

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How our economy recovers: what Canadians need in a throne speech – The Globe and Mail

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Mark Wiseman is chair of the Alberta Investment Management Corporation.

The economic crisis wrought by COVID-19 has been devastating, and the effects will linger long after a vaccine. In the early days of the pandemic our government quite rightly threw everything, including the kitchen sink, at the problem, to protect Canadians physically and economically. The government and the Bank of Canada worked quickly and deployed every fiscal and monetary tool available.

Now, a little more than six months into the crisis, we have racked up hundreds of billions of dollars of debt and monetary policy is quickly reaching its limits. Paying this debt back, especially with the medium-term threat of inflation, will be crippling for a generation of Canadians. To avoid this eventuality, we must embark today on a long-term growth and recovery plan.

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There is no doubt that government must continue to spend aggressively. This path is not one that we chose; the pandemic has thrust it upon us. But now that we are here, it is crucial that dollars are spent efficiently and in ways that will stimulate long-term growth. A sustainable economic recovery needs to see Canada’s long-term GDP growth rate rise to approximately 3 per cent (from a prepandemic 2 per cent) to make certain that we can pay off the billions in necessary expenditures.

To begin, Ottawa should ensure spending on near-term relief programs are highly effective and efficient. Every dollar the government spends needs to be repaid, so it should be extra vigilant with every penny spent. Ottawa needs to quickly revisit existing programs to eliminate unintended consequences and disincentives – ensuring that Canadians get safely back to work as soon as possible.

In regards to the longer term, the private sector will lead the economic recovery. The government’s growth plan ought to be one where it invests aggressively in both physical and human capital to catalyze the private sector and create jobs. Government, labour and business must work together to achieve Canada’s economic growth goals.

Ottawa’s investment in physical and human capital should therefore focus on six priorities:

1. The first is long-term infrastructure that catalyzes economic growth, such as investments in transit, transport, pipelines, ports and communications infrastructure. These are projects that will create jobs today and pay dividends for decades to come.

2. Getting our natural resources, including energy, to market efficiently and safely is imperative. We must invest today to get our products to where the demand is globally. Time is of the essence and our natural resources sectors are imperilled. Wherever possible, Ottawa needs to partner with Indigenous communities to achieve this.

3. We must build resiliency into vital components of our supply chain – COVID-19 taught us the importance of this. We cannot allow ourselves to be at risk again. Both government and the private sector must invest more in our supply chains, especially in critical areas such as agriculture and medical needs.

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4. The government should support start-ups and innovative small- and medium-sized enterprises through tax incentives, specifically encouraging equity investment and ownership in a small number of key areas where we have demonstrated capabilities, including information technology and agribusiness

5. We need more people – a lot more. We need skilled and unskilled labour from all over the world. The government ought to double down on our immigration advantage, especially for getting talent that traditionally has gone to the United States. In the near term, we must increase our immigration target to 500,000 a year and provide guaranteed permanent residency to any foreigner who completes a postsecondary degree or diploma in Canada. Almost all our economic growth since the Second World War is attributable to population growth. Given current birth rates, accelerated growth requires accelerated immigration.

6. As it has done with health care transfers, Ottawa should work aggressively with provincial governments to create a national child-care/early childhood education program that will be in place within 24 months. This program is conceived as an economic initiative, not a social program. It is required in order to a) achieve higher work force participation by making it easier for caregivers, most often women, to work, b) make it easier for Canadians to have children if they choose to do so, and c) focus on the next generation, since it has been proven that early learning is one of the most important components of human success.

Finally, all the above growth initiatives can and should be done through a green lens, even though a green recovery in and of itself is not a recovery plan. Achieving this growth objective will not be easy. But the government can develop a clear and cogent plan and work with partners in business and labour to execute.

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