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U.S. banks highlight office real estate as next big worry

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By Matt Tracy and Saeed Azhar

(Reuters) – Some of the largest U.S. banks singled out office commercial real estate on Friday as an area of growing concern, with property values falling and more borrowers defaulting on their loans amid rising interest rates and a slowing economy.

Faced with questions from analysts about their exposure to commercial real estate (CRE) and potential of losses, executives at Wells Fargo & Co, Citigroup Inc and JPMorgan Chase & Co said conditions were getting worse for the sector.

“Weakness continues to develop in commercial real estate office,” Wells Fargo Chief Executive Charlie Scharf said on a call with analysts. The bank set aside an additional $643 million in the first quarter for credit losses, mainly driven by expectations of higher CRE loan losses.

Stress in the commercial real estate sector could have broad implications for banks and the economy, as losses emanating there can tighten credit availability and exacerbate a downturn.

JPMorgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said he expected tighter lending conditions, most of it around “certain real estate things” and that “increases the odds of a recession.”

Banks represent 54% of the overall $5.7 trillion CRE market, with the small lenders holding 70% of CRE loans, according to Citigroup analysts. More than $1.4 trillion in U.S. CRE loans will mature by 2027, with some $270 billion coming due this year, according to real estate data provider Trepp.

Loans backed by offices make up the biggest share of the maturing debt load, followed by multifamily and retail properties. The question now facing many borrowers is whether they can refinance or restructure loans to avoid default, bankers and analysts said. Older properties with high vacancies face the greatest refinancing challenge, they said.

“Office properties are currently facing the greatest refinancing risks” as companies reassess their needs, said John Guarnera, an analyst at RBC BlueBay Asset Management.

MAJOR CITIES

Bankers and analysts said the greatest stress in the office sector is likely to be felt in major cities such as San Francisco, Los Angeles, New York and Seattle.

“The regions with the highest level of office stress are located in the Northeast and tech-heavy West Coast,” while southern cities have a lower share of risky loans, said Stephen Buschbom, research director at Trepp.

As the epicenter for the technology industry downturn, California’s CRE market has been hit hard. San Francisco and Los Angeles had an average office vacancy rate of 21.6% in the first quarter, according to data from Cushman & Wakefield. Loans for San Francisco offices now face the highest risk of default of all U.S. metro areas, according to Trepp.

A subsidiary of asset manager Brookfield Corp, for example, defaulted in February on $783 million in loans linked to two Los Angeles buildings, a filing showed. Citigroup and Wells Fargo were among the initial lenders.

Citigroup and Wells Fargo declined to comment for this article. Brookfield did not respond to a request for comment.

On an analyst call, Wells Fargo Chief Financial Officer Mike Santomassimo said the office market was showing “signs of weakness due to lower demand, higher financing costs and challenging capital market conditions.”

“While we haven’t seen this translate to meaningful loss content yet, we expect to see more stress over time,” he said.

PNC Financial Services Group Inc Chief Financial Officer Robert Reilly said its team was reviewing each asset in its office portfolio.

The lender was stress testing property performance to “set realistic expectations” and had “significantly discounted” income levels and property values “across the entire office book,” he said.

(Reporting by Matt Tracy and Saeed Azhar; Editing by Lananh Nguyen, Paritosh Bansal and Aurora Ellis)

 

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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