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U.S. Crude Oil Gains 65% in 2 Days, Going From Cold to Hot – Investing.com

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© Reuters.

By Barani Krishnan 

Investing.com – From an unloved market, U.S. crude has turned into something oil traders can’t seem to get enough of.

West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark for New York-traded crude futures, has gained 65% since Tuesday’s settlement, rising like a phoenix from the ashes of Black Monday when it fell 126% to sub-zero pricing amid demand busted by the Covid-19 pandemic. 

Minus the epic percentage moves, WTI was, of course, nowhere near its old self, trading almost $45 below a barrel below where it began the year.

“We need to take this rally with an ounce of caution … make it two ounces,” Igor Windisch of the IBW Oil Brief said as he pointed to a continued demand deficit for at least 20 million barrels of crude per day versus production. 

“Don’t fool yourself – because you can and probably will be caught by fundamentals,” Windisch wrote, adding that upcoming production cuts by OPEC were also priced into WTI. “No, the fundamentals have not changed in the past 48 hours. Actually, they have worsened — all parts of the equation, supply, demand and stocks.”

WTI’s front-month contract settled at $16.50 per barrel, up $2.72, or 20%, on the day.

, the London-traded global benchmark for crude, put in a more modest show, rising 96 cents, or about 5%, to settle at $20.37.  

June WTI’s outperformance appears driven by optimism among a majority of crude traders over the past two sessions that U.S. drillers will cut production quicker and deeper than previously thought in shale oil basins that deployed hydraulic fracturing, or fracking.

“We estimate that the total number of started frac operations will end up below 300 wells in April 2020; close to 200 in the Permian and less than 50 wells each in Bakken and Eagle Ford,” Oslo-based consultancy Rystad Energy said in a note. “This translates into a 60% decline in started frac operations between the peak level seen in January to February 2020 and April 2020, as the majority of public and private operators implement widespread frac holidays.”

Underscoring that sentiment, Oklahoma’s energy regulator on Wednesday allowed production cuts and even shut-ins by drillers in the state who found it just uneconomical to pump anymore though they still wanted to hold on to their leases. 

It was the first win by regional oil groups seeking relief from state regulators after Texas deferred a decision on Tuesday that it mandated production cuts by drillers in the largest U.S. crude producing state.

Yet, some like Windisch urged caution among those tempted to put in fresh long positions in June WTI.

“June could see storage tanks struggling to come off highs, in which case the days leading to expiry next month could see yet another squeeze,” Francesco Martoccia, senior associate in commodity research at Citi, wrote in a note to clients.

John Kilduff, founding partner at New York energy hedge fund Again Capital, concurred with that view. He said production cuts of 9.7 million barrels per day planned by global oil producers like the United States, Saudi Arabia and Russia fell woefully short of demand loss projected at up to 30 million barrels daily.

“In my opinion, the June WTI contract will repeat what May did,” Kilduff said. “It will grind lower and lower and lower into expiration and probably turn negative at some point in time.”

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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