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U.S. economy to slow in first-quarter but reach pre-COVID-19 levels in a year: Reuters poll – The Journal Pioneer

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4 years ago

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By Shrutee Sarkar

BENGALURU (Reuters) – U.S. economic growth will lose momentum this quarter and next but expand faster than previously thought after that, according to a Reuters poll of economists, a firm majority of whom now expect the economy to reach pre-COVID-19 levels within a year.

While the near-term economic outlook has dimmed again as the U.S. remains the country worst-hit by the pandemic and on uncertainty about a fresh fiscal package, Wall Street stocks have reached record highs on positive vaccine news.

The growth outlook for the current and next quarters was lowered in the Nov. 30-Dec. 8 poll. A few respondents predicted a double-dip, expecting the economy to contract again next quarter.

“We expect the rising threat of COVID-19 to dampen growth through the first months of 2021, followed by further fiscal support from the prospective new administration in reaction to the rise in hospitalizations,” noted Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist at Morgan Stanley.

“Downside risks are dominated by COVID-19, and particularly if broader-than-expected shutdowns over the winter and a delayed vaccine come in the absence of further fiscal stimulus. In this scenario, a more drawn-out recovery would lead to longer stints of unemployment and greater permanent job loss.”

But in response to an additional question, nearly two-thirds of economists, or 43 of 69, said U.S. GDP would reach pre-COVID-19 levels within a year. Twenty-one said within two years and five said two or more years.

That is a turnaround from the August poll findings, where none of the economists said “less than a year”, with nearly 60% predicting the economy would take two or more years to reach pre-pandemic levels.

The wider poll showed GDP for Q3 is expected to remain unrevised at a record 33.1% when the final data is issued later this month, after contracting at an annualized 31.4% pace in Q2, its sharpest decline in at least 73 years. It was expected to grow 4.0% this quarter, compared to 3.7% predicted previously.

For the first quarter the consensus was lowered to 2.5% growth from 3.0% last month, with nearly 11% of respondents predicting the economy would contract in Q1.

It was expected to expand 3.8%, 3.9% and 3.4% in the following quarters of 2021, compared to 3.5%, 3.5% and 3.2% predicted, respectively, last month.

The world’s largest economy was forecast to contract 3.6% this year then grow 3.9% next year and 3.1% in 2022.

Three-quarters of economists, or 44 of 58, who responded to a separate question said the outlook for the strength of the U.S. economic recovery had either stayed about the same or improved from last month.

“Near term (1-3 months) has worsened on the back of rising COVID-19 cases, which could lead to more containment measures being introduced at the expense of economic activity,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.

“However, political risks have subsided and vaccine roll-out news offer clear positives on the medium (3-6 months) term outlook.”

Still, only 21% of 43 economists in response to a separate question expected the Federal Reserve to announce more stimulus at its December meeting.

Thirteen economists said the Fed would change its policy next in 2021, six said in 2022 and 15 said 2023.

“If economic data deteriorate and there is no fiscal policy response in sight we may see the Federal Open Market Committee use its asset purchase program to provide additional monetary stimulus,” said Philip Marey, senior U.S. strategist at Rabobank.

“The FOMC could decide to indicate a longer horizon for asset purchases through forward guidance. However, if the Committee thinks the situation is more urgent, it could step up the pace of asset purchases or shift the composition to longer maturities.”

(For other stories from the Reuters global long-term economic outlook polls package:)

(Reporting by Shrutee Sarkar; Polling by Manjul Paul and Nagamani Lingappa; Editing by Jonathan Cable and Chizu Nomiyama)

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Christian McCaffrey is placed on injured reserve for the 49ers and will miss at least 4 more games

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September 14, 2024

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SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) — The San Francisco 49ers placed All-Pro running back Christian McCaffrey on injured reserve because of his lingering calf and Achilles tendon injuries.

The move made Saturday means McCaffrey will miss at least four more games after already sitting out the season opener. He is eligible to return for a Thursday night game in Seattle on Oct. 10.

McCaffrey got hurt early in training camp and missed four weeks of practice before returning to the field on a limited basis last week. He was a late scratch for the opener on Monday night against the Jets and now is sidelined again after experiencing pain following practice on Thursday.

McCaffrey led the NFL last season with 2,023 yards from scrimmage and was tied for the league lead with 21 touchdowns, winning AP Offensive Player of the Year.

The Niners made up for McCaffrey’s absence thanks to a strong performance from backup Jordan Mason, who had 28 carries for 147 yards and a touchdown in San Francisco’s 32-19 victory over the New York Jets. Mason is set to start again Sunday at Minnesota.

After missing 23 games because of injuries in his final two full seasons with Carolina, McCaffrey had been healthy the past two seasons.

He missed only one game combined in 2022-23 — a meaningless Week 18 game last season for San Francisco when he had a sore calf. His 798 combined touches from scrimmage in the regular season and playoffs were the third most for any player in a two-year span in the past 10 years.

Now San Francisco will likely rely heavily on Mason, a former undrafted free agent out of Georgia Tech who had 83 carries his first two seasons. He had at least 10 touches just twice before the season opener, when his 28 carries were the most by a 49ers player in a regular-season game since Frank Gore had 31 against Seattle on Oct. 30, 2011.

The Niners also have fourth-round rookie Isaac Guerendo and Patrick Taylor Jr. on the active roster. Guerendo played three offensive snaps with no touches in the opener. Taylor had 65 carries for Green Bay from 2021-23.

San Francisco also elevated safety Tracy Walker III from the practice squad for Sunday’s game against Minnesota.

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Canada’s Newman, Arop secure third-place finishes at Diamond League track event

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September 14, 2024

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BRUSSELS – Canada walked away with some hardware at the Diamond League track and field competition Saturday.

Alysha Newman finished third in women’s pole vault, while Marco Arop did the same in the men’s 800-metre race.

Newman won a bronze medal in her event at the recent Paris Olympics. Arop grabbed silver at the same distance in France last month.

Australia’s Nina Kennedy, who captured gold at the Summer Games, again finished atop the podium. Sandi Morris of the United States was second.

Newman set a national record when she secured Canada’s first-ever pole vault medal with a bronze at the Olympics with a height of 4.85 metres. The 30-year-old from London, Ont., cleared 4.80 metres in her second attempt Saturday, but was unable conquer 4.88 metres on three attempts.

Arop, a 25-year-old from Edmonton, finished the men’s 800 metres with a time of one minute 43.25 seconds. Olympic gold medallist Emmanuel Wanyonyi of Kenya was first with a time of 1:42.70.

Djamel Sedjati, edged out by Arop for silver in Paris last month, was second 1:42.87

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 14, 2024.

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Bologna prepares for Champions League debut with draw at Como while Juventus held

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September 14, 2024

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MILAN (AP) — Bologna’s preparations for its Champions League debut are not going well though it managed to spoil Como’s first Serie A home match in 21 years on Saturday.

Bologna came from two goals down to salvage a 2-2 draw to gather three points from its opening four matches.

Bologna hosts Shakhtar Donetsk on Wednesday. Its only other appearance in Europe’s top competition was in 1964 in the preliminary round of the old European Cup.

AC Milan is also winless as it prepares for a Tuesday Champions League match against Liverpool. The Rossoneri hosted promoted Venezia later. Juventus drew at Empoli 0-0.

Como made a great start in the fifth minute when Patrick Cutrone attempted to roll the ball across the six-yard box but it took a huge deflection off Bologna defender Nicolò Casale for an own goal.

Bologna thought it was gifted a way back into the match on the stroke of halftime when referee Marco Piccinini signalled for a penalty following an Alberto Moreno handball, but he revoked his decision and instead gave a free kick because the handball was just outside the area.

Bologna improved after the break but found itself further behind when Cutrone raced onto a through ball and cut inside past a defender and fired into the far bottom corner.

Tommaso Pobega hit the post for Bologna, which finally pulled one back in the 76th through substitute Santiago Castro.

Another substitute helped the visitors snatch a point when Samuel Iling-Junior curled a fine strike into the top left corner in stoppage time.

Unbeaten sides

Juventus, and more surprisingly Empoli, are among six unbeaten sides.

Empoli held Monza and Bologna to draws either side of a shock 2-1 win at Roma. Juventus’ perfect start to the season was ruined by Roma in a goalless draw before the international break.

On Saturday, there were few clearcut chances in Empoli although home goalkeeper Devis Vásquez made spectacular saves to fingertip out a Federico Gatti header and deny Dusan Vlahovic in a one on one with the Juventus forward.

Empoli had a good opportunity in the 73rd minute following an Alberto Grassi one-two with Pietro Pellegri but the finish was straight at Mattia Perin.

The host could have won it right at the death but Gatti flew in with a great sliding block to keep out Emanuel Gyasi’s close-range effort.

Juventus hosts PSV Eindhoven in the Champions League on Tuesday.

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