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U.S. gains 678,000 jobs in February and unemployment drops to 3.8% despite labor shortage – MarketWatch

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The numbers: The U.S. added 678,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate fell again even as businesses grappled with the worst labor shortage in decades, signaling the economy is picking up after a slow start to the year.

The unemployment rate dropped to 3.8% from 4%, the government said Friday.

The increase in hiring last month — the biggest in seven months — exceeded forecasts. Economists polled by The Wall Street had estimated 440,000 new jobs.

The government’s employment report won’t sway the Federal Reserve as the central bank prepares for a series of interest-rate increases to try to tame the worst bout of U.S. inflation in 40 years.

The jobs report has also been less reliable over the past year owing to the waxing and waning of the pandemic. The estimates have been subject to large revisions months later that have presented a very different view of how many people are being hired.

One thing is clear, though. The labor market is very tight and it’s going away to stay that way for a while. Workers are taking advantage of the situation to leave their employers in droves for better-paying jobs.

Hourly wages only rose 1 cent to $31.58 in February, but worker pay is climbing at the fastest rate since the early 1980s.

Read: Soaring U.S. worker pay stalled in February, but probably not for long

“The ‘Great Resignation’ is real,” a technology executive told ISM. “Severe labor shortages are expected well into 2022.”

U.S. stocks fell in Friday trades and were little swayed by the jobs report. The war in Ukraine is the main focus of investors now.

Big picture: The economy is getting a tailwind from the steep decline in cases of the omicron variant of the coronavirus.

People who got sick from the highly contagious variant have returned to work. Governments have dropped business restrictions and companies have stepped up hiring efforts to try to cater to high demand for their goods and services.

Yet soaring inflation and ongoing shortages of labor and supplies are likely to constrain the economy in the first half of 2022 before easing, analysts predict. Americans are unlikely to buy as many houses, cars and other big-ticket items if prices keep rising and interest rates go up though.

The war in Ukraine also threatens to worsen inflation and deliver another shock to an already fragile global economy.

Key details: About a quarter of the new jobs created in February were in leisure and hospitality, the industries most affected when coronavirus cases were high.

Restaurants added 124,000 new jobs last month and hotels hired 28,000 people.

Hiring also rose strongly at white-collar professional jobs (95,000), health care (64,000), construction (60,000) and transportation and warehousing (48,000).

No industry reported a decline in employment.

The size of the labor force increased by 301,000 in February. The percentage of people in the labor force rose a tick to 62.3%, though it’s still well below the peak before the pandemic.

The economy would have about 3 million more workers if the so-called participation rate in the labor market was the same now as it was before the pandemic.

Hiring in January and December were somewhat stronger than previously reported. Job gains in the two months were raised by a combined 92,000. 

Steady hiring is pushing the unemployment rate back to precrisis levels, when it had fallen to a half-century low of 3.5%.

The tight labor market is a blessing for many workers. They’ve switched jobs for better pay or gotten higher wages from their current employers.

Over the past year the average paycheck has increased by 5.1% — one of the fastest increase since the early 1980s.

“Employers continue to struggle to bring in new workers and keep existing ones,” said Thomas Barkin, president of the Richmond Federal Reserve.

Rising pay still isn’t keeping up with inflation, however. The cost of living jumped 7.5% in the 12 months ended in January.

Higher wages could even add to inflationary pressures unless accompanied by increases in worker productivity.

In a worst-case scenario, a dreaded wage-price spiral could take place and keep inflation at worrisomely high levels.

Looking ahead: “If we see more numbers like this moving forward, we can be optimistic about this year. Employment is growing at a strong rate and joblessness is getting closer and closer to pre-pandemic levels,” said Indeed Hiring Lab Research Director Nick Bunker. “Still, in these uncertain times, we cannot take anything for granted.”

“What this tells me is that the U.S. economy is open for business. Omicron is in the past, and businesses expect demand to remain strong going forward,” said John Leer, chief economist at Morning Consult.

Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-0.53%

and S&P 500
SPX,
-0.79%

were sank in Friday trades. Stocks have been under pressure the past week since the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

___

Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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