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Economy

U.S. housing market to remain a bright spot in a weak economy

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By Hari Kishan and Richa Rebello

BENGALURU (Reuters) – U.S. house prices will continue to surge well into next year and beyond, outpacing inflation and the overall economy, a Reuters poll of property analysts found, making it a bright spot against an otherwise gloomy economic backdrop.

In a stark reversal, the U.S. housing market – at the epicenter of the global financial crisis more than a decade ago – was expected to extend a helping hand to an economy severely battered by the coronavirus pandemic.

Buoyed by record-low interest rates and strong pent-up demand from a segment of the workforce largely unaffected by pandemic-induced job cuts, house prices will continue to rise over the next two years, the Sept. 15-29 poll of over 40 analysts showed.

U.S. house prices were predicted to rise 4.0% this year and by an average 3.5% in 2021 and 2022. That suggests the trend since 2013 of house price rises outpacing consumer inflation would continue for the next three years at least, according to current inflation expectations.

Underscoring the view that the latest data showing a surge in house prices was not just a blip, over 60% of analysts, or 24 of 39 who responded to an additional question, said that trend would continue to hold for at least another year. The remaining 15 said less than a year.

“Three factors support relatively high home prices – undersupply after a decade of underbuilding, single-family housing attractiveness in a socially distancing world, and most importantly low interest rates,” said Nathaniel Karp, chief U.S. economist at BBVA.

“However, economic uncertainty remains elevated and the recovery after the pandemic could take time, which are the risks to the current valuations.”

U.S. house prices outlook: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/polling/xlbvgjmgepq/Reuters%20Poll-U.S.%20house%20prices%20outlook.PNG

Already tight inventory levels have been squeezed to record lows after construction activity came to a grinding halt because of the coronavirus pandemic, and with no policy relief expected, home buyers may outbid each other and crank up prices.

Existing home sales reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6 million units in August, the highest since the tail end of the previous housing boom in 2006, and were expected to average around 5.5 million units in the coming year.

“A surge in demand has put further strain on an already tight inventory. The latest supply of existing homes dropped below three months (of inventory) for the first time since records began in 1982, and that implies sales will ease back toward the end of the year,” said Matthew Pointon, property economist at Capital Economics.

When asked to rate the affordability on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 as extremely cheap and 10 as very expensive, the poll gave a median of 7, up from 6 in the previous poll when predictions were for house prices to rise at a slower pace than currently expected.

“U.S. home prices are not yet at a level that is concerning,” said Matthew Gardner, chief economist at Windermere Real Estate. “That said, we need significant growth in the number of new homes built to meet current demand. If more units are not provided, we could see unsustainable upward price pressure in the resale market.”

(Reporting by Hari Kishan; Additional reporting and polling by Richa Rebello and Tushar Goenka; Editing by Ross Finley and Andrea Ricci)

Source:- Reuters poll – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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Economy

Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

September merchandise trade deficit narrows to $1.3 billion: Statistics Canada

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the country’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $1.3 billion in September as imports fell more than exports.

The result compared with a revised deficit of $1.5 billion for August. The initial estimate for August released last month had shown a deficit of $1.1 billion.

Statistics Canada says the results for September came as total exports edged down 0.1 per cent to $63.9 billion.

Exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products fell 5.4 per cent as exports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and their alloys, decreased 15.4 per cent. Exports of energy products dropped 2.6 per cent as lower prices weighed on crude oil exports.

Meanwhile, imports for September fell 0.4 per cent to $65.1 billion as imports of metal and non-metallic mineral products dropped 12.7 per cent.

In volume terms, total exports rose 1.4 per cent in September while total imports were essentially unchanged in September.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

How will the U.S. election impact the Canadian economy? – BNN Bloomberg

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How will the U.S. election impact the Canadian economy?  BNN Bloomberg

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