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Canada's unemployment rate rises to 5.7% in October as economy sees modest job gain – The Globe and Mail

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A construction worker walking on King St. West in Toronto on Mar. 14.Fred Lum/the Globe and Mail

The Canadian economy added jobs at a slower pace in October and the unemployment rate ticked up, the latest sign of how higher interest rates are weighing on economic activity.

The labour market added 17,500 jobs last month, after increases of nearly 64,000 positions in September and 40,000 in August, Statistics Canada said Friday in a report. Analysts on Bay Street were expecting a gain of 25,000 in October.

Despite the increase, the unemployment rate rose to 5.7 per cent from 5.5 per cent, the highest level since January, 2022. The labour force is expanding quickly, because of an immigration boom, but employers are not creating enough jobs to keep the jobless rate from rising.

Meanwhile, average hourly wages rose 4.8 per cent on an annual basis in October – down from a 5-per-cent pace in September. This is an encouraging sign for the Bank of Canada, which has repeatedly flagged elevated wage growth as a risk to the inflation outlook.

The economic data have softened in recent months: Gross domestic product has stagnated, job vacancies are falling and consumers are pulling back on purchases as businesses and households contend with the highest borrowing rates in more than two decades.

After Friday’s report, analysts said the Bank of Canada was unlikely to raise its benchmark interest rate any further from its current 5 per cent.

“While the headline job gain was uneventful, make no mistake that the underlying picture for Canada’s labour market is softening. Exhibit A on that front is the grinding rise in the unemployment rate,” Bank of Montreal chief economist Doug Porter wrote to clients.

He added: “This will keep the Bank of Canada pinned more fully to the sidelines, although we still believe that rate relief remains a distant prospect.”

The labour report showed mixed results by region and industry. Alberta added 37,700 positions in October, the most of any province. At the other end, employment fell by 22,100 in Quebec and 14,300 in Ontario. Because of the weakness in Quebec, Saskatchewan now has the lowest unemployment in the country at 4.4 per cent.

Employment rose by 23,000 in construction, the most by industry. Manufacturing shed 18,800 roles, while another 21,700 positions were lost in wholesale and retail trade.

After hitting a record low of 4.9 per cent last year, the unemployment rate has been moving higher. Statscan noted there were 1.2 million unemployed persons in October, an increase of 171,000 since April. The agency noted that among those unemployed in September, 60 per cent remained unemployed in October, a greater proportion than a year ago.

This is “an indication that job seekers are facing more difficulties finding employment than a year ago,” the report said.

In October, one in three Canadians aged 15 and older was living in a household that found it difficult or very difficult to meet its financial needs for necessary expenses over the previous four weeks, Statscan said on Friday. This proportion was down slightly from a year ago (35.5 per cent), but was much higher than three years ago (20.4 per cent).

The annual inflation rate has ebbed to 3.8 per cent from a peak of 8.1 per cent last year. Still, the Bank of Canada doesn’t expect inflation to return to its 2-per-cent target until mid-2025. Moreover, price increases remain elevated for necessities such as food and shelter.

From a labour perspective, the coming months could be challenging for job seekers.

“We suspect that given the weak trend in economic activity currently and its implications for labour demand, job growth will continue to lag that of the overall population for the remainder of this year and into 2024,” said Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets, in a report.

Mr. Grantham said the unemployment rate could rise further and peak somewhere between 6 per cent and 6.5 per cent. “That should help to ease wage and overall inflationary pressures, allowing for interest rate cuts to start” in the second quarter of 2024, he said.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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