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UCP climbs, particularly in Calgary as NDP dips in latest measure of Alberta political standings

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United Conservatives erase a slim preference the Alberta New Democrats enjoyed in Calgary during last May’s provincial election.

The ruling UCP’s political fortunes have risen since October, while those of the NDP have fallen, suggests a new poll.

That’s especially true in Calgary, where the UCP has erased a slim preference the NDP enjoyed in last May’s provincial election.

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An online Leger survey of 1,012 people conducted Jan. 12 to 15 shows provincewide support for Premier Danielle Smith’s UCP government has increased by four points to 50 per cent since October, with few of those gains coming in rural areas.At the same time, the number of those saying they’d vote for the NDP has dropped by the same amount, to 43 per cent.

That shift has given the governing party a commanding lead in Calgary, topping the NDP by a 55 per cent to 41 per cent margin.

“From a political standpoint, the fact the UCP made some gains in Calgary will be good news to them given its electoral importance,” said Andrew Enns, a Leger executive vice-president.

In last May’s provincial election, the NDP won the Calgary vote by a one per cent difference, taking 14 of 26 seats.

The UCP’s rise in Calgary is as stunning as it is unexpected, said Mount Royal University political scientist Lori Williams.

“It’s very surprising, particularly with what’s happening with health care and affordability,” she said.

The poll results might emphasize the need for the NDP to choose a new leader from Calgary, to shore up standing in Alberta’s largest city, added Williams.

She said the province’s antagonism toward Ottawa might obscure those governing issues, said Williams.

“With a focus on a fight with Ottawa, maybe people will lose sight of those shortcomings, but I’d expect that more in the rural areas,” she said.

Leger political poll Alberta

The poll shows the UCP hasn’t made noticeable gains in rural areas — where they command 56 per cent of the vote to the NDP’s 34 per cent.

The Offcial Opposition, which holds only one rural seat, saw its support outside Calgary and Edmonton fall by five per cent.

The poll was completed a day before Rachel Notley announced she’ll step down as NDP leader after nearly a decade in that role, and almost nine years after winning a provincial election that interrupted more than 40 years of Conservative rule.

 

Notley’s departure could hurt NDP fortunes

The departure of Notley — who’s generally more highly regarded in Alberta than her party — could further erode support for the NDP, said Enns.

“The NDP has to be alive to the risk of that, the Notley persona is viewed better than the NDP brand,” said Enns.

“You’ve got a strong Opposition going through some significant change and that’s not easy.”

The NDP likely faces some tough sledding without Notley, even leading up to the next election, said Williams.

“Can the NDP hold its support as a pragmatic alternative without a visionary leader like Rachel Notley?” she said.

But while the next provincial election is more than three years away, for the UCP the poll could indicate the success of its fight Ottawa strategy and how relevant it might be going forward, he said.

That’s especially important as the government tries to navigate more difficult terrain in areas such as health care and its unpopular Alberta pension plan campaign, said Enns.

“It’ll confirm they’re not on the wrong track, generally speaking, in governing, and part of that is they’re keeping the prime minister in their sights,” he said.

“They’ve backed off on the hard sell of the pension plan and upped the ante on the feds.”

The UCP government has been relentless in criticizing and opposing federal moves, particularly regarding energy, environmental and firearms issues.

Smith’s recent trip to Dubai for the COP28 climate change summit probably sold well with many Albertans, said Enns.

The poll showed the NDP doing slightly better in Edmonton compared to October, with 55 per cent of voter support compared to 40 per cent for the Conservatives.

Provincewide, the poll edges closer to the margin of electoral victory enjoyed by the UCP, which was 8.6 per cent.

The poll’s margin of error is no greater than plus or minus 3.1 per cent, 19 times out of 20, for the total Alberta sample, says Leger.

 

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Gould calls Poilievre a ‘fraudster’ over his carbon price warning

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OTTAWA – Liberal House leader Karina Gould lambasted Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as a “fraudster” this morning after he said the federal carbon price is going to cause a “nuclear winter.”

Gould was speaking just before the House of Commons is set to reopen following the summer break.

“What I heard yesterday from Mr. Poilievre was so over the top, so irresponsible, so immature, and something that only a fraudster would do,” she said from Parliament Hill.

On Sunday Poilievre said increasing the carbon price will cause a “nuclear winter,” painting a dystopian picture of people starving and freezing because they can’t afford food or heat due the carbon price.

He said the Liberals’ obsession with carbon pricing is “an existential threat to our economy and our way of life.”

The carbon price currently adds about 17.6 cents to every litre of gasoline, but that cost is offset by carbon rebates mailed to Canadians every three months. The Parliamentary Budget Office provided analysis that showed eight in 10 households receive more from the rebates than they pay in carbon pricing, though the office also warned that long-term economic effects could harm jobs and wage growth.

Gould accused Poilievre of ignoring the rebates, and refusing to tell Canadians how he would make life more affordable while battling climate change. The Liberals have also accused the Conservatives of dismissing the expertise of more than 200 economists who wrote a letter earlier this year describing the carbon price as the least expensive, most efficient way to lower emissions.

Poilievre is pushing for the other opposition parties to vote the government down and trigger what he calls a “carbon tax election.”

The recent decision by the NDP to break its political pact with the government makes an early election more likely, but there does not seem to be an interest from either the Bloc Québécois or the NDP to have it happen immediately.

Poilievre intends to bring a non-confidence motion against the government as early as this week but would likely need both the Bloc and NDP to support it.

Gould said she has no “crystal ball” over when or how often Poilievre might try to bring down the government

“I know that the end of the supply and confidence agreement makes things a bit different, but really all it does is returns us to a normal minority parliament,” she said. “And that means that we will work case-by-case, legislation-by-legislation with whichever party wants to work with us. I have already been in touch with all of the House leaders in the opposition parties and my job now is to make Parliament work for Canadians.”

She also insisted the government has listened to the concerns raised by Canadians, and received the message when the Liberals lost a Toronto byelection in June in seat the party had held since 1997.

“We certainly got the message from Toronto-St. Paul’s and have spent the summer reflecting on what that means and are coming back to Parliament, I think, very clearly focused on ensuring that Canadians are at the centre of everything that we do moving forward,” she said.

The Liberals are bracing, however, for the possibility of another blow Monday night, in a tight race to hold a Montreal seat in a byelection there. Voters in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun are casting ballots today to replace former justice minister David Lametti, who was removed from cabinet in 2023 and resigned as an MP in January.

The Conservatives and NDP are also in a tight race in Elmwood-Transcona, a Winnipeg seat that has mostly been held by the NDP over the last several decades.

There are several key bills making their way through the legislative process, including the online harms act and the NDP-endorsed pharmacare bill, which is currently in the Senate.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Voters head to the polls for byelections in Montreal and Winnipeg

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OTTAWA – Canadians in two federal ridings are choosing their next member of Parliament today, and political parties are closely watching the results.

Winnipeg’s Elmwood —Transcona seat has been vacant since the NDP’s Daniel Blaikie left federal politics.

The New Democrats are hoping to hold onto the riding and polls suggest the Conservatives are in the running.

The Montreal seat of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun opened up when former justice minister David Lametti left politics.

Polls suggest the race is tight between the Liberal candidate and the Bloc Québécois, but the NDP is also hopeful it can win.

The Conservatives took over a Liberal stronghold seat in another byelection in Toronto earlier this summer, a loss that sent shock waves through the governing party and intensified calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down as leader.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Next phase of federal foreign interference inquiry to begin today in Ottawa

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OTTAWA – The latest phase of a federal inquiry into foreign interference is set to kick off today with remarks from commissioner Marie-Josée Hogue.

Several weeks of public hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign interference.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and key government officials took part in hearings earlier this year as the inquiry explored allegations that Beijing tried to meddle in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections.

Hogue’s interim report, released in early May, said Beijing’s actions did not affect the overall results of the two general elections.

The report said while outcomes in a small number of ridings may have been affected by interference, this cannot be said with certainty.

Trudeau, members of his inner circle and senior security officials are slated to return to the inquiry in coming weeks.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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