LONDON (Reuters) – Britain’s economy struggled to grow in August, setting back its recovery from the coronavirus lockdown, and finance minister Rishi Sunak was due to announce more help to slow a rise in jobs losses as a second wave of COVID-19 infections hits.
Gross domestic product rose by 2.1% from July, official data showed, not even half the median forecast in a Reuters poll of economists and the slowest increase since the economy began to recover in May from a record slump.
Much of what growth there was in August was down to a one-off government restaurant subsidy programme.
Finance minister Rishi Sunak was due to announce later on Friday a plan to support jobs in businesses that may be ordered to close to slow a resurgence of COVID-19 infections. Economists said the data also raised the chance of more stimulus from the Bank of England.
“The sharp slowdown in growth indicates that the recovery may be running out of steam, with output still well below pre-crisis levels,” Suren Thiru, head of economics at the British Chambers of Commerce said.
“The increase in activity in August largely reflects a temporary boost from the economy reopening and government stimulus, including the Eat Out to Help Out Scheme, rather than proof of a sustained ‘V’-shaped recovery.”
More than half of the economy’s growth in August came from accommodation and food, where output surged by 71.4% thanks to the government’s one-month meals subsidies, more people taking holidays in Britain and the easing of lockdown restrictions.
JOBS PLAN
Kate Nicholls, head of the UK Hospitality trade body, said new COVID-19 restrictions introduced in September had weighed on the hospitality sector again.
“Today’s figures show our economy has grown for 4 consecutive months, but I know that many people are worried about the coming winter months,” Sunak said.
“Throughout this crisis, my single-focus has been jobs – protecting as many jobs as possible, and providing support for people to find other opportunities where this isn’t possible. This goal remains unchanged.”
Sunak’s new jobs plan would subsidise two thirds of the wages of workers in pubs, restaurants and other businesses forced to close to slow the spread of the coronavirus, the Times reported.
His wage subsidy plan for workers across the economy expires at the end of this month and will be replaced by less generous support for employers, raising fears of a jump in job losses.
Friday’s data showed the economy – which shrank by more than any other Group of Seven nation in the April-June period – remained 9.2% smaller than its pre-the pandemic level.
Graphic: UK GDP remained 9.2% below pre-pandemic size in Aug – ONS – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/polling/jznvnlydevl/Pasted%20image%201602227920047.png
The huge services sector grew by 2.4% from July, half the pace expected by economists. Growth in the smaller manufacturing and construction sectors also fell short of forecasts.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said on Thursday that risks to the economy were “very much on the downside” and the central bank was ready to use its policy firepower.
Dean Turner, an economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, said recent surveys had pointed to the economy slowing in September which could be made worse by local COVID-19 restrictions on activity.
“Sluggish progress is likely to encourage the Bank of England to increase its bond buying program at its November meeting,” he said.
Britain is also facing the risk that it fails to secure a trade deal with the European Union with negotiations still ongoing ahead of the Dec. 31 expiry of the country’s post-Brexit transition period.
(Reporting by William Schomberg and Andy Bruce; editing by Kate Holton)
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
