(Bloomberg) — Britain faces “a decade in the doldrums” with poor growth and worsening regional inequalities unless the government steps up the level of public investment, the National Institute of Social and Economic Research said.
The economic think tank on Wednesday warned against cutting taxes before the election, arguing that it’s far more important for the country’s long-term prospects to lift productivity by investing more.
The findings accompanied projections indicating sputtering economic growth will slow next year. Members of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s Conservative Party want tax cuts to lure back support ahead of an election widely expected next year but economists warn that Britain must fix longer-term problems.
“The lack of public investment is a large part of the UK’s slow growth story,” said Stephen Millard, deputy director for macroeconomic modeling. “That’s what they should be doing. We don’t want to see a pre-election tax giveaway.”
NIESR added that England’s regions would fall further behind without direct investment. “Regional inequality that has been entrenched since the 1970s is likely to persist with little trickle down from richer to poorer parts of the country,” said Jagjit Chadha, NIESR’s director.
A separate report from the Recruitment & Employment Confederation and KPMG showed demand for staff declining at the slowest pace in four months. It also showed lingering upward pressure on pay, a concern for the Bank of England, which is trying to head off a wage-price spiral.
In a sign that the UK’s tight labor market is easing, the increase in salaries was only in line with the long run average and the pace of growth the slowest in 31 months.
“The jobs market is facing a cyclical challenge,” said Claire Warnes, a partner at KPMG UK. “There are people out there who want to work, and there’s a decent availability of candidates, but they often do not have the right skills for the roles on offer. This means higher starting salaries are still being offered.”
NIESR’s latest quarterly forecasts come just weeks ahead of the autumn fiscal statement from Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt. The research group expects growth of just 0.6% and that to slide to 0.5% in 2025.
Slow growth, it said, is partly due to higher interest rates, which the Bank of England has raised from 0.1% to 5.25% since December 2021. NIESR expects inflation to drop to 5.1% in October, from 6.7%, then to 3.9% at the end of 2024 and hit the 2% target in 2025. Official inflation data for October is due next week.
“Monetary policy has done its job – we don’t expect any more increases in rates,” Millard said. NIESR predicts rates to drop to 3.5% by 2027, a much sharper drop than what financial markets have priced in.
NIESR said the government’s main challenge is to fix the UK’s investment shortfall by raising public investment from 2% to 3% of gross domestic product a year. It estimates that Hunt may have as much as £90 billion ($111 billion) of headroom at the autumn statement to invest.
The figure is far higher than the £13 billion estimated by the Resolution Foundation think tank and the record low £6.5 billion the chancellor had in March. NIESR said the difference reflected its higher estimate of nominal GDP, which is affected by inflation projections.
It expects house prices to fall 6.5% peak to trough by the middle of 2025, though that drop would be less severe than previously forecast. That will push another 50,000 households into negative equity, taking the total to 166,000 – about 1.5% of all mortgage borrowers.
Household incomes for workers on between £16,000 and £32,000 a year will not recover to pre-pandemic levels until 2026 but the increase in the national living wage to over £11 an hour will reduce destitution and improve the incentives for those on the lowest incomes to return to the labor force, NIESR said.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
Losing a loved one is never easy, and the legal steps that follow can add even more stress to an already difficult time.
For years, families in Vancouver (and Canada in general) have struggled with a complex probate process—filled with paperwork and legal challenges.
Thankfully, recent changes to Canada’s probate laws aim to make this process simpler and easier to navigate.
Let’s unearth how these updates can simplify the process for you and your family.
What is probate?
Probate might sound complicated, but it’s simply the legal process of settling someone’s estate after death.
Here’s how it works.
Validating the will. The court checks if the will is legal and valid.
Appointing an executor. If named in the will, the executor manages the estate. If not, the court appoints someone.
Settling debts and taxes. The executor (and you) pays debts and taxes before anything can be given.
Distributing the estate. Once everything is settled, the executor distributes the remaining assets according to the will or legal rules.
Probate ensures everything is done by the book, giving you peace of mind during a difficult time.
Recent Changes in Canadian Probate Laws
Several updates to probate law in the country are making the process smoother for you and your family.
Here’s a closer look at the fundamental changes that are making a real difference.
1) Virtual witnessing of wills
Now permanent in many provinces, including British Columbia, wills can be signed and witnessed remotely through video calls.
Such a change makes estate planning more accessible, especially for those in remote areas or with limited mobility.
2) Simplified process for small estates
Smaller estates, like those under 25,000 CAD in BC, now have a faster, simplified probate process.
Fewer forms and legal steps mean less hassle for families handling modest estates.
3) Substantial compliance for wills
Courts can now approve wills with minor errors if they reflect the person’s true intentions.
This update prevents unnecessary legal challenges and ensures the deceased’s wishes are respected.
These changes help make probate less stressful and more efficient for you and other families across Canada.
The Probate Process and You: The Role of a Probate Lawyer
(Image: Freepik.com)
Working with a probate lawyer in Vancouver can significantly simplify the probate process, especially given the city’s complex legal landscape.
Here’s how they can help.
Navigating the legal process
Probate lawyers ensure all legal steps are followed, preventing costly mistakes and ensuring the estate is managed properly.
Handling paperwork and deadlines
They manage all the paperwork and court deadlines, taking the burden off of you during this difficult time.
Resolving disputes
If conflicts arise, probate lawyers resolve them, avoiding legal battles.
Providing you peace of mind
With a probate lawyer’s expertise, you can trust that the estate is being handled efficiently and according to the law.
With a skilled probate lawyer, you can ensure the entire process is smooth and stress-free.
Why These Changes Matter
The updates to probate law make a big difference for Canadian families. Here’s why.
Less stress for you. Simplified processes mean you can focus on grieving, not paperwork.
Faster estate settlements. Estates are settled more quickly, so beneficiaries don’t face long delays.
Fewer disputes. Courts can now honor will with minor errors, reducing family conflicts.
Accessible for everyone. Virtual witnessing and easier rules for small estates make probate more accessible for everyone, no matter where you live.
With these changes, probate becomes smoother and more manageable for you and your family.
How to Prepare for the Probate Process
Even with the recent changes, being prepared makes probate smoother. Here are a few steps to help you prepare.
Create a will. Ensure a valid will is in place to avoid complications.
Choose an executor. Pick someone responsible for managing the estate and discuss their role with them.
Organize documents. Keep key financial and legal documents in one place for easy access.
Talk to your family. Have open conversations with your family to prevent future misunderstandings.
Get legal advice. Consult with a probate lawyer to ensure everything is legally sound and up-to-date.
These simple steps make the probate process easier for everyone involved.
Wrapping Up: Making Probate Easier in Vancouver
Recent updates in probate law are simplifying the process for families, from virtual witnessing to easier estate rules. These reforms are designed to ease the burden, helping you focus on what matters—grieving and respecting your dead loved ones’ final wishes.
Despite these changes, it’s best to consult a probate lawyer to ensure you can manage everything properly. Remember, they’re here to help you during this difficult time.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.
The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.
