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US economy grows at fastest pace in nearly two years – BBC.com

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The US economy grew faster than expected in the third quarter of the year, helped by a tight jobs market and consumer spending.

The economy expanded at an annual rate of 4.9% in the July to September period, according to the government’s first estimate.

It marked the biggest rise seen since the last three months of 2021.

Consumers spent a lot despite the Federal Reserve trying to clamp down on spending with higher interest rates.

Analysts expected that the economy would grow by 4.5% in the third quarter of this year.

But a strong jobs market meant that consumers were able to ask for bigger pay packets and keep spending on concerts, movies or holidays over the summer.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of economic activity in the US, was the main driver behind the rise.

The latest figure is a big spike from the 2.1% growth seen in the three months to July.

In a statement, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis said the increase reflects “accelerations in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and federal government spending” among other factors.

US economic growth

It raises a question over previous predictions that the world’s biggest economy could possibly enter a recession.

The latest data comes ahead of a key meeting for the US Federal Reserve, where it will decide whether or not to raise interest rates again next week.

Some economists had raised concerns of an economic downturn being sparked by the central bank increasing rates to a 22-year-high in a bid to bring the rate at which prices are rising back down closer to 2%.

Raising interest rates is one of the key tools central banks use to try to tackle inflation. By making borrowing more expensive, the theory is consumers will spend less and lead to slower price rises.

So far, the world’s biggest economy has managed to defy the worst predictions.

But Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic said she expects that consumers are spending the “last portion of pandemic-related savings,” and that she expects growth will slow in the last three months of 2023.

Ms Bostjancic told the Agence France Presse news agency that the Federal Reserve may see the need for a further rate rise as it battles “sticky” inflation.

In a separate update on Thursday, the US Labor Department said that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits remains low.

However, in the final quarter of the year, growth might be hampered by strikes by the United Auto Workers, as well as the fact that student loan repayments by millions of Americans will have resumed, putting more pressure on their budgets.

The European Central Bank (EBC) alsoleft interest rates unchanged on Thursday as higher borrowing costs work their way through.

The ECB started increasing rates in July 2022, in response to rapidly rising prices.

After 10 successive rate rises, eurozone inflation, which peaked at 10.6 % in October 2022, has been falling steadily. It reached 4.3% in September.Although that means prices are still rising, the ECB has said the cost of borrowing is now high enough, and the effects of previous rises will continue to filter through.In a statement, the ECB’s governing council said inflation was still expected to stay “too high for too long”, but insisted rates were at levels that, if maintained for a sufficiently long duration, would make a “substantial contribution” to meeting its target of 2%.

Analysts said that although there were still some risks around the global economy from uncertainty in the Middle East and Ukraine, the focus was now moving towards the potential for rate cuts – with the Euro area economy currently stagnating.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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