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US economy to grow faster than forecast, says Federal Reserve – BBC News

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A worker carries a ladder into a home under construction at the planned community at River Islands in Lathrop, California Thursday, Mar. 4, 2021.

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The US central bank expects much stronger growth this year than previously forecast, as vaccination rates rise and government relief funds start flowing into the economy.

The Federal Reserve forecast average growth of 6.5% this year – up from 4.2% it predicted in December.

The outlook for recovery in the jobs markets has also brightened, the Fed said.

Despite the upgrade, officials did not move to raise interest rates.

And most members expect to keep borrowing costs near zero until after 2023, according to the projections released by the Fed after its regular meeting.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the bank wanted to see proof of a more complete recovery before altering its policies, which are focused on stimulating economic activity.

Inflation

Millions of people remain out of work and the parts of the economy most affected by the pandemic – such as leisure and hospitality – remain weak, he said. The damage has disproportionately affected minority and low-wage workers, who are often the last to benefit from an economic rebound, he added.

“The recovery has progressed more quickly than generally expected,” he said at a press conference after the meeting. “While we welcome these positive developments, no one should be complacent.”

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

Reuters

The improved outlook – a compilation of independent forecasts by the bank’s board members – includes projections that inflation could heat up later this year, reaching 2.4%, above the bank’s historic 2% target. But Mr Powell said such a move was likely to be “transient”.

Share prices on Wall Street jumped after the announcement.

“With the Fed keen not to tighten policy until it sees inflation on track to moderately exceed its 2% goal on a sustained basis, and also emphasising that any increase in inflation should be transitory, we expect the Fed will follow through on its commitment not to raise rates for a while yet,” said Michael Pearce, senior US economist at Capital Economics.

“The key risk is that the rise in inflation that most forecasters anticipate this year proves more enduring than Fed officials currently expect.”

The economic recovery anticipated in the US is more robust than that in Europe.

But Mr Powell said he was not worried that weak growth abroad would hurt the US, the main focus of the bank. “When the US economy is strong, that strength tends to support global activity as well,” he said.

“I’d love to see Europe growing faster, I’d love to see vaccination rollout going more smoothly but I don’t worry too much about us in the near term,” he said. “I think we’re in a good place. It’s all ahead of us but the data should get stronger fairly quickly and remain strong for some time.”

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Economy

Energy stocks help lift S&P/TSX composite, U.S. stock markets also up

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.

The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Economy

Canada’s inflation rate hits 2% target, reaches lowest level in more than three years

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OTTAWA – Canada’s inflation rate fell to two per cent last month, finally hitting the Bank of Canada’s target after a tumultuous battle with skyrocketing price growth.

The annual inflation rate fell from 2.5 per cent in July to reach the lowest level since February 2021.

Statistics Canada’s consumer price index report on Tuesday attributed the slowdown in part to lower gasoline prices.

Clothing and footwear prices also decreased on a month-over-month basis, marking the first decline in the month of August since 1971 as retailers offered larger discounts to entice shoppers amid slowing demand.

The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures of inflation, which strip out volatility in prices, also edged down in August.

The marked slowdown in price growth last month was steeper than the 2.1 per cent annual increase forecasters were expecting ahead of Tuesday’s release and will likely spark speculation of a larger interest rate cut next month from the Bank of Canada.

“Inflation remains unthreatening and the Bank of Canada should now focus on trying to stimulate the economy and halting the upward climb in the unemployment rate,” wrote CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham.

Benjamin Reitzes, managing director of Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO, said Tuesday’s figures “tilt the scales” slightly in favour of more aggressive cuts, though he noted the Bank of Canada will have one more inflation reading before its October rate announcement.

“If we get another big downside surprise, calls for a 50 basis-point cut will only grow louder,” wrote Reitzes in a client note.

The central bank began rapidly hiking interest rates in March 2022 in response to runaway inflation, which peaked at a whopping 8.1 per cent that summer.

The central bank increased its key lending rate to five per cent and held it at that level until June 2024, when it delivered its first rate cut in four years.

A combination of recovered global supply chains and high interest rates have helped cool price growth in Canada and around the world.

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem recently signalled that the central bank is ready to increase the size of its interest rate cuts, if inflation or the economy slow by more than expected.

Its key lending rate currently stands at 4.25 per cent.

CIBC is forecasting the central bank will cut its key rate by two percentage points between now and the middle of next year.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected on Wednesday to deliver its first interest rate cut in four years.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

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Economy

Federal money and sales taxes help pump up New Brunswick budget surplus

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.

Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.

The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.

Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.

Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.

Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.

Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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