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US equities end turbulent week with a modest gain – BNN

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US stocks rallied Friday as sentiment improved after traders parsed comments from Federal Reserve officials who reiterated that the central bank needs to do more to curb the hottest inflation in 40 years. 

While the S&P 500 rose on Friday, it still closed the week at its lowest since December 2020 as investors grappled with a flurry of data that intensified recession fears. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 surged. Friday also brought the quarterly event known as triple witching. The US$3.5 trillion options expiry has arrived with limited downside volatility so far. Treasury yields rose across the curve, with 10-year yields hovering around 3.2 per cent. The dollar snapped two days of losses. 

Markets rounded off a week buffeted by interest-rate increases, including the Federal Reserve’s biggest move since 1994, a shock Swiss National Bank hike and the latest boost in UK borrowing costs. The rate hikes are draining liquidity, sparking losses in a range of assets. Traders are still assessing the path of rate hikes the Federal Reserve could take and the impact that would have on the economy.

“Coming off a painful week on Wall Street, investors are becoming optimistic that the Fed remains committed to bringing down inflation and that markets could be close to pricing in where the overnight rate will be at its peak next year,” said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at Oanda.​ 

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said, on Friday, that the central bank is “acutely focused” on returning inflation to 2 per cent and that another 75 basis-point hike or 50 basis-point move was likely at the July meeting. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George said she opposed the Fed’s Wednesday decision because the move, combined with the shrinking of the central bank’s balance sheet, creates uncertainty about the outlook. 

“I think that we need to work on the basis that the macroeconomic and investment environment will remain potentially very fragile,” said Christian Nolting, Deutsche Bank’s private bank global chief investment officer. “Recovery will not be simple and, even on the most optimistic assumptions — for example, on Chinese economic reopening — issues such as supply-chain disruption will take time to fix.”

US factory production data for May pointed at cooler demand as output unexpectedly declined. Meanwhile, industrial production for May rose, but below the estimate.

Global stocks are facing one of their worst weeks since pandemic-induced turmoil of 2020 and some investors aren’t sure that assets have sunk far enough to price in the tightening cycle. 

“Near-term recession has become a foregone conclusion for many investors; the only questions now are its duration and the severity of its impact on earnings,” Wells Fargo’s Chris Harvey wrote in a note.

Compared with the last two bear markets that were also associated with runaway inflation, the current one, at six months, has a long way to go, Harvey said. The 1980-1982 downturn lasted just over 20 months, as did the one between 1973 and 1974.

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Bitcoin flirted with key US$20,000 level, after snapping its longest streak of losses in Bloomberg data going back to 2010 earlier on Friday. In a sign of deepening turmoil in the crypto community, Babel Finance became the second major digital-asset lender this week to freeze withdrawals, telling clients it is facing “unusual liquidity pressures” as it contends with recent market declines. Oil fell as traders weighed the prospect of slower economic growth against tight supplies.

“The market continues to vacillate on the narrative of the year, between monetary normalization due to inflation and monetary policy error: a source of sustained volatility for equity valuations,” said Florian Ielpo, head of macro at Lombard Odier Asset Management.

US stocks attracted US$14.8 billion in the week to June 15, their sixth consecutive week of additions, according to Bank of America Corp., citing EPFR Global data. In total, US$16.6 billion flowed into equities globally in the period, while bonds had the largest redemptions since April 2020 and just over US$50 billion exited cash, the data showed. In a separate report, BofA raised European stocks to neutral from negative, saying the impact of economic news is now priced in. 

Some of the main moves in markets:

Stocks

  • The S&P 500 rose 0.2 per cent as of 4 p.m. New York time
  • The Nasdaq 100 rose 1.2 per cent
  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2 per cent
  • The MSCI World index fell 2.4 per cent

Currencies

  • The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.8 per cent
  • The euro fell 0.5 per cent to US$1.0494
  • The British pound fell 1.1 per cent to US$1.2213
  • The Japanese yen fell 2.1 per cent to 134.98 per dollar

Bonds

  • The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced three basis points to 3.23 per cent
  • Germany’s 10-year yield declined five basis points to 1.66 per cent
  • Britain’s 10-year yield declined two basis points to 2.50 per cent

Commodities

  • West Texas Intermediate crude fell 6.3 per cent to US$110.22 a barrel
  • Gold futures fell 0.5 per cent to US$1,839.90 an ounce

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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