US stocks entered a bear market, Treasury yields spiked to levels not seen in a decade and the dollar rallied as the fallout from a hot inflation reading continued to rattle global trading already shaken by worries the Federal Reserve will plunge the economy into a recession.
Another brutal bout of selling sent the S&P 500 to the lowest since January 2021 and down more than 20 per cent from its January peak. Highly valued tech shares bore the brunt of the rout, with the Nasdaq 100 slumping about 4.5 per cent. The Cboe Volatility Index jumped above 30 and the futures curve inverted in a rare instance of traders pricing in more uncertainty in the here-and-now than in three months. Speculative areas of the market inflated by years of government largesse buckled. Profitless software firms, newly public companies and blank-check entities sold off. Bitcoin plummeted below US$24,000 after a lending platform ceased operations.
Credit markets continued their historic repricing of rate trajectories. Treasury 10-year yields climbed to the highest since 2011, while two-year rates jumped to levels last seen before the 2008 financial crisis. The cost to protect investment-grade debt from default soared as a closely watched segment of the US bond curve inverted. Only the dollar provided a respite from the selloff, rallying to a two-year high.
“It’s going to get a little uglier,” said Victoria Greene, chief investment officer at G Squared Private Wealth. “It’s going to be very hard for stocks to rally when the Fed continues to put hawkish pressure. There’s no way they can slam on the brakes with inflation without slamming on the brakes economically speaking. It’s funny we still have recession deniers.”
Money markets now see the Fed terminal rate at four per cent for the first time, and are pricing for it to get there by the middle of next year. Traders are now betting on 175 basis points of tightening by September — implying two half-point and one 75-basis-point hike. If that comes to pass, it would be the first time since 1994 the Fed resorted to such an aggressive pace. Officials are muzzled before the decision in two days and Chair Jerome Powell’s conference, where the characterization of inflation and long-term forecasts for the fed funds target — the so-called dot plot — will be critical.
As the Fed attempts to boost its credibility on inflation, it could reach for a more drastic increase if it’s compelled to demonstrate a “Volcker moment,” said Steven Englander, global head of Group-of-10 currency research at Standard Chartered Bank. He was referring to Fed Chair Paul Volcker, who crushed inflation with a series of historic rate increases, starting in 1979. With that possibility, Englander predicts there’s a 10 per cent chance of a 100-basis-point increase Wednesday — with his baseline still a half-percentage point increase.
The dramatic moves in the world’s biggest bond market spell further trouble for battered US equities. Recent history shows that stocks tend to swoon when the 10-year Treasury yield hits three per cent, as seen in early May and in late 2018, according to DataTrek Research’s Nicholas Colas. It hovered near 3.4 per cent Monday.
Equities still aren’t fully reflecting the risks facing corporate earnings, according to strategists at Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and BlackRock Investment Institute. Weaker consumer demand and aggressive tightening by the Fed in an attempt to fight the hottest US inflation in four decades can do further damage to bottom lines and, in turn, share prices. For Evercore strategist Julian Emanuel, “what’s been missing the last several months is sort of what I would call a ‘cathartic flush out,’ where you get the VIX above 40, which is one of the things you need for at least a trading bottom.”
The last bulwark in stocks is in danger of shattering, if the mood of chief executive officers is any indication. A survey of sentiment among corporate stewards by the Conference Board showed that CEO confidence declined sharply in the second quarter of the year for the fourth straight time. Similar skepticism in the past has always coincided with a recession in profits, wrote Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.
- “The idea that there is some Goldilocks outcome in the cards or soft landing is a mockery,” wrote Danielle DiMartino Booth, chief strategist of Quill Intelligence. “While tightening into a recession is no easy task, the Federal Reserve must indicate a willingness to raise interest rates by more than a half-percentage point at upcoming meetings if inflation continues to surprise to the upside.”
- “Today, some people are just saying — ‘I don’t want my portfolio to go to zero, I want a couple of nickels out of it’,” said Paul Nolte, portfolio manager at Kingsview Investment Management. “There’s a lot of indiscriminate selling, there is a lot of fear about how far the Federal Reserve is ready to go to fight inflation.”
- “There has been no follow-through by the bulls,” wrote JC O’Hara, chief market technician at MKM Partners. “Until they have a data point to celebrate, investors will continue to shed risk assets. The largest risk now is that interest-rate expectations are still too low and earnings expectations are still too high.”
The damage in the highly speculative crypto market took on staggering contours as the value of all assets sank below US$1 trillion, down by two-thirds from the heady levels reached in November. Bitcoin and its cousins have largely tracked risk assets, but the latest leg down — as much as 17 per cent for the world’s largest digital token — came with concern that the freezing of withdrawals at the Celsius lending platform might indicate systemic risk in the crypto world that could accelerate the meltdown.
“You can’t have these massive drawdowns without some real damage being done and real money being lost,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities.
What to watch this week:
- US PPI, Tuesday.
- China key economic activity data, liquidity operations, medium-term lending facility, Wednesday.
- FOMC rate decision, Chair Jerome Powell briefing, US business inventories, empire manufacturing, retail sales, Wednesday.
- ECB President Christine Lagarde due to speak, Wednesday.
- Bank of England rate decision, Thursday.
- US housing starts, initial jobless claims, Thursday.
- Bank of Japan policy decision, Friday.
- Eurozone CPI, Friday.
- US Conference Board leading index, industrial production, Friday
Some of the main moves in markets:
- The S&P 500 fell 3.9 per cent as of 4 p.m. New York time
- The Nasdaq 100 fell 4.6 per cent
- The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.8 per cent
- The MSCI World index fell 3.7 per cent
- The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 1.1 per cent
- The euro fell one per cent to US$1.0412
- The British pound fell 1.5 per cent to US$1.2126
- The Japanese yen was little changed at 134.37 per dollar
- The yield on 10-year Treasuries advanced 22 basis points to 3.37 per cent
- Germany’s 10-year yield advanced 12 basis points to 1.63 per cent
- Britain’s 10-year yield advanced eight basis points to 2.53 per cent
- West Texas Intermediate crude rose 0.2 per cent to US$120.92 a barrel
- Gold futures fell 2.7 per cent to US$1,824.30 an ounce
Stock market news live updates: Stock turn lower following last week's rebound – Yahoo Canada
U.S. stocks closed a choppy session lower Monday, weighed down by losses in technology shares, after the major indexes failed to sustain momentum from last week’s rally.
The S&P 500 fell 0.3%, and Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 60 points, or 0.2% after each benchmark wavered between the red and the green throughout the trading day. The Nasdaq Composite declined 0.9%.
The moves follow a sharp rebound Friday that saw the S&P 500 surge 3% during the session and over 6% for the week, its second-best week this year and its first weekly rise since late May. Still, the benchmark index is on pace for its worst opening six months since 1970.
During the previous session, the Dow rose more than 800 points, or 2.7%, while the Nasdaq increased by more than 3.3%, leading to weekly gains for the indexes of more than 5% and 7%, respectively.
Some Wall Street strategists are hopeful that markets may have found a bottom.
“As bad as [this year] has been for investors, the good news is previous years that were down at least 15% at the midway point to the year saw the final six months higher every single time, with an average return of nearly 24%,” LPL Financial chief market strategist Ryan Detrick said in a note last week.
J.P. Morgan strategist Marko Kolanovic also predicted that U.S. equities may climb as much as 7% this week as investors rebalance portfolios amid the end of the month, second quarter, and first half of the year.
While sentiment on Wall Street appears optimistic, investors are in for a bevy of key economic reports and earnings that may sway markets this week and put hopes of a comeback to the test.
Quarterly results from Nike (NKE) and Micron (MU) will be closely watched for signs of rising inventories and slowing orders like Target and some other retailers have warned about recently, which may renew worries of an economic slowdown among Corporate America.
Traders also face a fairly loaded economic calendar this week, with the latest read on core PCE inflation – the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of consumer prices, the Conference Board’s consumer sentiment survey, and manufacturing and housing reports due out through Friday.
On the move
Robinhood Markets (HOOD)‘s stock surged 14% to close at $9.12 per share following a report from Bloomberg that cryptocurrency exchange FTX is considering a deal to acquire digital trading platform. Earlier in the day, Robinhood was in the spotlight after Goldman Sachs upgraded the brokerage to Neutral, about two months after the bank downgraded shares to Sell.
Coinbase (COIN) shares plunged nearly 10.8% to $55.96 after analysts at Goldman Sachs on Monday downgraded the cryptocurrency exchange to Sell from Neutral and slashed their price target on the stock to $45 from $70. Goldman also noted that while Coinbase recently announced it would cut 18% of staff, these layoffs will not be enough to bring the company’s costs in line with lowered sales.
AMC Entertainment (AMC) rallied to cap trading up 13.6% despite a turbulent session for the broader markets. The stock rose amid increased mentions across forums such as Reddit’s WallStreetBets and Stocktwits. AMC was also added to the Russell 1000 Index after an annual rebalancing.
Alexandra Semenova is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter @alexandraandnyc
Man uses Apple Airtags to find stolen Range Rover | CTV News – CTV News Toronto
An Ontario man whose car was stolen from his driveway in midtown Toronto twice in three months is revealing how he tracked and located his second vehicle.
“It’s pretty scary, but you can’t live your life in fear,” Lorne, whose surname CTV News Toronto has omitted due to safety concerns, said on Monday.
On April 1, his family moved to the Avenue Road and Lawrence Avenue area.
The following day, employees from an electronics company arrived at his house to install televisions. He placed the keys of his Range Rover Autobiography into a faraday box, which is designed to prevent criminals from copying a key fob and gaining access to a vehicle.
However, within minutes of the employees leaving his house, his car was stolen in broad daylight.
“The thieves were able to disable the tracker in my car, put there by the manufacturer,” Lorne said.
Meanwhile, his wallet, along with his kids phones, which were in the car, were thrown out of the vehicle before it was stolen, which Lorne said he believes was a preventive measure to avoid him from tracking the location of his car.
His Range Rover was never recovered.
Thirty days later, he got a new car of the same model, but this time, he placed three Apple AirTag tracking devices inside – one in the glovebox, another in his spare tire in the trunk and a third under his back seat.
While Lorne said he typically parks in his garage, last Wednesday night, he didn’t.
At 8:30 a.m. the next morning, he said his kids ran into his bedroom screaming, ”Daddy, daddy, your car is gone.”
Right away, he logged into his Find My app and located all three of his AirTags near Manville and Comsock roads in Scarborough, listed as a metal recycling plant.
After dropping his kids at school, he headed to that location and called the police. With no success reaching an officer, he drove to the 41 Division police station.
Toronto police spokesperson David Hopkinson confirmed to CTV News Toronto that a report of this nature was received by police on Thursday.
“I pressed my panic button and you heard it going off,” Lorne said. “The next day I was told they recovered nine cars.”
Due to an ongoing investigation, police could not comment further on the incident.
This time, however, Lorne said police recovered his vehicle and he anticipates it should be back in his possession soon.
While he said his AirTags worked in this case, he anticipates car thefts will only get increasingly sophisticated.
“It’s not foolproof,” he said.
Company buying Trump's social media app faces subpoenas – Yahoo Canada Finance
NEW YORK (AP) — The company planning to buy Donald Trump’s new social media business has disclosed a federal grand jury investigation that it says could impede or even prevent its acquisition of the Truth Social app.
Shares of Digital World Acquisition Corp. dropped almost 10% Monday as the company revealed that it has received subpoenas from a grand jury in New York.
The Justice Department subpoenas follow an ongoing probe by the Securities and Exchange Commission into whether Digital World broke rules by having substantial talks about buying Trump’s company starting early last year before Digital World sold stock to the public for the first time in September, just weeks before its announcement that it would be buying Trump’s company.
Trump’s social media venture launched in February as he seeks a new digital stage to rally his supporters and fight Big Tech limits on speech, a year after he was banned from Twitter, Facebook and YouTube.
The Trump Media & Technology Group — which operates the Truth Social app and was in the process of being acquired by Digital World — said in a statement that it will cooperate with “oversight that supports the SEC’s important mission of protecting retail investors.”
The new probe could make it more difficult for Trump to finance his social media company. The company last year got promises from dozens of investors to pump $1 billion into the company, but it can’t get the cash until the Digital World acquisition is completed.
Stock in Digital World rocketed to more than $100 in October after its deal to buy Trump’s company was announced. The stock closed at $25.16 Monday.
Digital World is a special-purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, part of an investing phenomenon that exploded in popularity over the past two years.
Such “blank-check” companies are empty corporate entities with no operations, only offering investors the promise they will buy a business in the future. As such they are allowed to sell stock to the public quickly without the usual regulatory disclosures and delays, but only if they haven’t already lined up possible acquisition targets.
Digital World said in a regulatory filing Monday that each member of its board of directors has been subpoenaed by the grand jury in the Southern District of New York. Both the grand jury and the SEC are also seeking a number of documents tied to the company and others including a sponsor, ARC Global Investments, and Miami-based venture capital firm Rocket One Capital.
Some of the sought documents involve “due diligence” regarding Trump Media and other potential acquisition targets, as well as communications with Digital World’s underwriter and financial adviser in its initial public offering, according to the SEC disclosure.
Digital World also Monday announced the resignation of one of its board members, Bruce Garelick, a chief strategy officer at Rocket One.
The Associated Press
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