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‘V-shaped" recovery from coronavirus market crash not expected by most investment firms, survey says – Proactive Investors USA & Canada

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Investment firms do not expect the US economy to mount a rapid ‘V-shaped’ recovery from the crash caused by the coronavirus pandemic, according to a new survey by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG).

The survey, which includes respondents representing firms with over US$4trn of assets under management, said 87% of those asked did not see a rapid bounce back to pre-crisis economic levels and growth rates, instead they expected any recovery to be either “U, W, or L” shaped.

Meanwhile, the data showed that 55% of respondents expected the “severe” economic impact of the crisis to have ended by the third quarter of 2020, however, 23% said it could last until the fourth quarter of the year.

Bearish for 2020 but bulls could return

Looking ahead, 60% of investors surveyed said they were ‘bearish’ in their outlook for the remainder of 2020, while 25% were neutral in their outlook.

However, BCG highlighted that respondents were “increasingly bullish” for 2021 and 2022, with 55% either bullish or extremely bullish for the next calendar year, rising to 63% for the year after.

Companies given “unexpected” flexibility to weather downturn

For companies themselves, BCG indicated that while investors had clear expectations, they also appeared to be offering “financially healthy companies unexpected flexibility to navigate the crisis”.

The survey showed that 79% of investors wanted firms to provide or revise guidance for the current fiscal year within the next three months, but only 56% thought it was important to deliver earnings per share (EPS) in line with revised guidance for the current year.

Instead, the survey showed 89% of respondents wanted company directors to prepare for the economic “bounce back”, building advantaged business capabilities to “drive future growth—even if it means guiding to lower EPS or delivering below consensus”.

BCG also highlighted that investors supported “some typically unconventional near-term moves that would previously have been ‘off-the-table’”, with 73% of survey responders saying firms should be “ intensely focused on preserving liquidity even if it is at the expense of investing to achieve advantage in the business”.

Meanwhile, 63% thought companies should not aggressively repurchase shares despite low valuations, and 53% were comfortable with firms not maintaining their dividend in the near-term.

Acquisitions on the agenda

While investors may not be in favour of share buybacks during a period of low valuation, the survey data showed that the downturn in company values could instead see additional pressure for acquisitions.

BCG said 58% of investors believed business should “ actively pursue acquisitions” to strengthen themselves over the period, while 59% predicted that there will be an increase in investor activism and firms should take steps to reduce the risk of such activity by “strengthening their businesses’ near- and medium-term fundamentals”.

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Investment

Tesla shares soar more than 14% as Trump win is seen boosting Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company

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NEW YORK (AP) — Shares of Tesla soared Wednesday as investors bet that the electric vehicle maker and its CEO Elon Musk will benefit from Donald Trump’s return to the White House.

Tesla stands to make significant gains under a Trump administration with the threat of diminished subsidies for alternative energy and electric vehicles doing the most harm to smaller competitors. Trump’s plans for extensive tariffs on Chinese imports make it less likely that Chinese EVs will be sold in bulk in the U.S. anytime soon.

“Tesla has the scale and scope that is unmatched,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, in a note to investors. “This dynamic could give Musk and Tesla a clear competitive advantage in a non-EV subsidy environment, coupled by likely higher China tariffs that would continue to push away cheaper Chinese EV players.”

Tesla shares jumped 14.8% Wednesday while shares of rival electric vehicle makers tumbled. Nio, based in Shanghai, fell 5.3%. Shares of electric truck maker Rivian dropped 8.3% and Lucid Group fell 5.3%.

Tesla dominates sales of electric vehicles in the U.S, with 48.9% in market share through the middle of 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Subsidies for clean energy are part of the Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law by President Joe Biden in 2022. It included tax credits for manufacturing, along with tax credits for consumers of electric vehicles.

Musk was one of Trump’s biggest donors, spending at least $119 million mobilizing Trump’s supporters to back the Republican nominee. He also pledged to give away $1 million a day to voters signing a petition for his political action committee.

In some ways, it has been a rocky year for Tesla, with sales and profit declining through the first half of the year. Profit did rise 17.3% in the third quarter.

The U.S. opened an investigation into the company’s “Full Self-Driving” system after reports of crashes in low-visibility conditions, including one that killed a pedestrian. The investigation covers roughly 2.4 million Teslas from the 2016 through 2024 model years.

And investors sent company shares tumbling last month after Tesla unveiled its long-awaited robotaxi at a Hollywood studio Thursday night, seeing not much progress at Tesla on autonomous vehicles while other companies have been making notable progress.

Tesla began selling the software, which is called “Full Self-Driving,” nine years ago. But there are doubts about its reliability.

The stock is now showing a 16.1% gain for the year after rising the past two days.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 100 points, U.S. stock markets mixed

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.

The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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