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Varcoe: Global oil leaders warn of clash between rising oil demand and ‘wishful thinking’ on energy transition

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‘It will be a transition. There seems to be . . . wishful thinking that we’re going to flip the switch, and we’ll go from where we’re at today to where we will be tomorrow’

The global oil and gas sector is on board for the energy transition, but its leaders are also warning of “wishful thinking” about how easy it will be to make the shift.

On the opening day of the World Petroleum Congress in Calgary, leaders with some of the world’s largest oil and gas producers cautioned about the risk of underestimating how challenging it will be to transform existing global energy systems, as governments and the public demand tougher climate action.

Some at the energy summit also rejected projections from various corners, including the International Energy Agency (IEA), that the world will see oil demand reach its peak later this decade.

The daunting challenges of how to meet rising energy demand while also decarbonizing oil and gas production dominated much of the debate during the conference’s opening sessions.

“It is difficult to replace today’s energy system, in part because of the utility of today’s energy system. Oil and gas is widely available, easily transportable,” Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods told the crowd on Monday.

“It will be a transition. There seems to be . . . wishful thinking that we’re going to flip the switch, and we’ll go from where we’re at today to where we will be tomorrow.”

The congress, which is expected to attract more than 4,000 delegates from around the world, is called the Olympics of the oil and gas industry and attracts some of the most influential leaders in the sector to discuss the key energy issues of the day.

The world is consuming a record 102 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) this year and demand is projected to expand by another one million barrels per day next year, according to the IEA.

Public anger has grown over rising energy costs during the past 18 months, with oil topping $100 a barrel after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year.

Members of the OPEC+ group — including Saudi Arabia and Russia — have extended their own production cuts until the end of the year. On Monday, prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude hovered near US$91 a barrel.

Concerns about the effects of climate change are also at the fore of the debate, along with stricter government policy designed to reduce emissions.

More than 80 countries have adopted a net-zero target by 2050, including Canada, which is the fourth-largest oil producer in the world, behind the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Russia.

The chief executive of the world’s largest energy company, Amin Nasser of Saudi Aramco, told the audience the energy transition is like an epic voyage across an ocean — not a quick or easy path to reach global climate objectives.

“We know the destination and the whole world has already left port. But the fleet is scattered and drifting,” he said.

Many shortcomings around the energy transition have led to unrealistic scenarios and timelines, said Nasser.

As well, issues such as keeping energy affordable and secure, and addressing energy poverty across the world, can’t be overlooked.

The transition is a “complete transformation of a $100-trillion global economy today,” he noted.

But the industry is under fierce pressure to take more action on climate concerns.

Thousands came out to the 24th World Petroleum Congress in Calgary on Monday, September 18, 2023.
Thousands came out to the 24th World Petroleum Congress in Calgary on Monday, September 18, 2023. Photo by Darren Makowichuk /Postmedia

In Canada, the federal government has introduced a price on carbon and a new clean fuel standard. It is also set to release draft regulations later this year that will place a cap on emissions coming from the country’s oil and gas industry, putting it at loggerheads with the Alberta government.

“No one is saying we’re going to flip a switch and change the system tomorrow,” said Greenpeace Canada’s Keith Stewart. “The only thing that’s more expensive than getting off of fossil fuels is staying on fossil fuels.”

The CEOs also discussed their investments in developing technology, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) and new low-carbon fuels.

Woods noted the energy transition will require a lot of investment, policy certainty and a regulatory system that allows new projects to be built to meet growing energy demand.

Last week, the International Energy Agency’s executive director said that its new global outlook projects demand for oil, gas and coal will peak later this decade.

Thousands came out to the 24th World Petroleum Congress in Calgary on Monday, September 18, 2023.
Thousands came out to the 24th World Petroleum Congress in Calgary on Monday, September 18, 2023. Photo by Darren Makowichuk /Postmedia

During a panel discussion, Nasser noted that when he started at Aramco in 1982, the talk in the industry was about reaching peak oil supply. However, that ignored the fact that improving economics would provide incentives for companies to find new ways to discover and produce oil.

“Now, everybody is talking about peak demand. And the same people talking about peak demand, by the way, are forecasting in the second half of this year, a 103 to 104 million barrels a day (market) — and this is in the middle of an economic downturn,” he added.

“Demand will continue to grow because, also, we are making a lot of progress in terms of reducing emissions (from) conventional energy, and as you reduce these emissions the demand for this product will increase as you decarbonize.”

Speaking to reporters on Monday, Alberta Premier Danielle Smith expressed similar skepticism with projections that oil consumption will soon hit a plateau, calling the IEA increasingly “a political activist organization.”

“I liked what . . . the Saudi energy minister had to say this morning — you’ve got to live in the real world, not on computer models,” she said.

“We’ve got to respond to the world as it is.”

Chris Varcoe is a Calgary Herald columnist.

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Canada Goose to get into eyewear through deal with Marchon

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TORONTO – Canada Goose Holdings Inc. says it has signed a deal that will result in the creation of its first eyewear collection.

The deal announced on Thursday by the Toronto-based luxury apparel company comes in the form of an exclusive, long-term global licensing agreement with Marchon Eyewear Inc.

The terms and value of the agreement were not disclosed, but Marchon produces eyewear for brands including Lacoste, Nike, Calvin Klein, Ferragamo, Longchamp and Zeiss.

Marchon plans to roll out both sunglasses and optical wear under the Canada Goose name next spring, starting in North America.

Canada Goose says the eyewear will be sold through optical retailers, department stores, Canada Goose shops and its website.

Canada Goose CEO Dani Reiss told The Canadian Press in August that he envisioned his company eventually expanding into eyewear and luggage.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GOOS)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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TD CEO to retire next year, takes responsibility for money laundering failures

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TORONTO – TD Bank Group, which is mired in a money laundering scandal in the U.S., says chief executive Bharat Masrani will retire next year.

Masrani, who will retire officially on April 10, 2025, says the bank’s, “anti-money laundering challenges,” took place on his watch and he takes full responsibility.

The bank named Raymond Chun, TD’s group head, Canadian personal banking, as his successor.

As part of a transition plan, Chun will become chief operating officer on Nov. 1 before taking over the top job when Masrani steps down at the bank’s annual meeting next year.

TD also announced that Riaz Ahmed, group head, wholesale banking and president and CEO of TD Securities, will retire at the end of January 2025.

TD has taken billions in charges related to ongoing U.S. investigations into the failure of its anti-money laundering program.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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