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Variants could spark resurgence even under current health measures: modelling – CTV News

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OTTAWA —
With COVID-19 variants of concern continuing to spread across Canada, new national modelling shows that even the current level of public health measures will not be enough to prevent a resurgence of the virus nationwide.

The dire warning comes as part of the Public Health Agency of Canada’s (PHAC) new pandemic projections.

Looking at only non-variant COVID-19 spread, if Canadians maintain their current number of contacts the epidemic will continue to come under control. Factoring in the more contagious variants, the trajectory changes considerably and cases will spike again under Canadians’ current level of precautions and restrictions.

The presentation made by Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam and Deputy Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Howard Njoo notes that, with variants of concern now detected in all provinces with “increasing prevalence and spread,” if Canada wants to keep flattening the pandemic curve, more stringent public health measures and individual precautions are needed.

Based on the current projections, the current pandemic controls may not be enough to fully control the variants. The long-range forecast predicts a “strong resurgence” in March and April in all provinces.

Accordingly, if people let their guards down and if public health measures are lifted the variants are forecasted to send infection rates spiking to levels far past what was seen in either the first or second waves.

This could result in up to 20,000 new daily cases by the spring. Currently the average daily case count is approximately 2,900 new cases a day across the country, which is an improvement from last month when some provinces were reporting nearly that many new infections in a day.

On Thursday, Tam joined Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on the weekly call with the premiers. She was asked Friday if she’s raised her concerns about easing restrictions with her provincial counterparts, as some provinces have already started scaling back on their lockdown measures.

In response, Tam said they are aware that in her view a robust plan to sequence variants and contact trace needs to be in place before restrictions are loosened, and “if you ease anything at all, it better be slow with a lot of surveillance testing.”

She offered the recent surge in cases in Newfoundland and Labrador as an example of how rapidly new outbreaks of these variants can spread.

modelling slide 12

 

During a press conference on Friday, Trudeau said that while what provinces and cities have been doing is working, the threat of the variants remains.

“We have to keep taking strong public health measures… Otherwise we could see a third wave that is even worse than the second or the first,” he said.

Noting that this is not news anyone wants to hear, Trudeau said provinces looking to ease measures must be ready to respond to new outbreaks with swift action and suggested updates to the national COVID Alert app may play a role.

The modelling is focused on three variants of concern: the B.1.1.7 variant first identified in U.K. the B.1.351 variant first identified in South Africa, and P.1 the variant first identified in Brazil.

As of Feb. 18, PHAC data indicates that there have been 664 confirmed B.1.1.7 variant cases, 39 B.1.351 variant cases, and one case of the P.1 variant. Tam said it’s possible that, at least in the case of the U.K.-originating variant that it becomes a “very common” strain of the virus over time.

Based on the current pandemic situation, daily case counts, deaths and hospitalizations are currently declining in most of Canada and fewer health regions are reporting high rates of infection across all age groups.

The short-term forecast predicts Canada will see up to 878,850 total cases by Feb. 28 and total deaths could reach up to 22,420 people by the end of the month.

IMPACT OF VACCINES?

The modelling does not explicitly factor in the increasing rates of vaccination in Canada. However, it shows that international experience with these variants have been that while vaccine programs expand, stringent adherence to proper mask-wearing, physical distancing and other precautions have helped control the spread.

“For the next months we’re not going to have a lot of people vaccinated, that’s a fact,” Tam said. “In order for the vaccine to have the best runway it can to take off, you need to make sure those cases are kept low.”

Referencing these new figures during question period in the House of Commons, Conservative health critic Michelle Rempel Garner asked whether the modelling shows the federal government’s “failure” on vaccinations, and whether it’s “made Canada vulnerable to variants, and is going to create more lockdowns?”

In response, the parliamentary secretary to the health minister Darren Fisher said the federal government remains proud with more than 1.5 million vaccines delivered across Canada to-date.

Later, at the House of Commons Health Committee, MPs began hearing from senior PHAC officials about the current outbreaks, occurrences, and modelling for COVID-19 variant spread in Canada as it relates to projected vaccination rollout timelines, including the capacity to surveil, assumptions on vaccine effectiveness, and the procurement of booster shots.

During his testimony, Roman Szumski, the senior vice-president of the vaccine acquisition branch at PACH, said that Canada’s current vaccine contracts don’t talk about the need for potential boosters to deal with variants, so in order to access those, new contracts would be required.

“We are engaged directly with the suppliers and keeping current with their tracking of vaccine performance and plans for boosters or updates to their vaccines. They currently do not have boosters that are available,” he said.

In her remarks to the committee, Chair of the National Advisory Committee on Immunization (NACI), Dr. Caroline Quach-Thanh, said the variants are on NACI’s radar and many questions remain to be answered, though initial data around vaccine efficacy indicates the mRNA vaccines—which both Moderna and Pfizer shots are— show effectiveness against the U.K. strain, where as the others may pose more of a challenge.

“NACI is monitoring the data and will issue a statement if a booster or new dose is needed, including consideration of any new vaccine candidates that are authorized by Health Canada,” she said.

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Bad traffic, changed plans: Toronto braces for uncertainty of its Taylor Swift Era

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TORONTO – Will Taylor Swift bring chaos or do we all need to calm down?

It’s a question many Torontonians are asking this week as the city braces for the arrival of Swifties, the massive fan base of one of the world’s biggest pop stars.

Hundreds of thousands are expected to descend on the downtown core for the singer’s six concerts which kick off Thursday at the Rogers Centre and run until Nov. 23.

And while their arrival will be a boon to tourism dollars — the city estimates more than $282 million in economic impact — some worry it could worsen Toronto’s gridlock by clogging streets that already come to a standstill during rush hour.

Swift’s shows are set to collide with sports events at the nearby Scotiabank Arena, including a Raptors game on Friday and a Leafs game on Saturday.

Some residents and local businesses have already adjusted their plans to avoid the area and its planned road closures.

Aahil Dayani says he and some friends intended to throw a birthday bash for one of their pals until they realized it would overlap with the concerts.

“Something as simple as getting together and having dinner is now thrown out the window,” he said.

Dayani says the group rescheduled the gathering for after Swift leaves town. In the meantime, he plans to hunker down at his Toronto residence.

“Her coming into town has kind of changed up my social life,” he added.

“We’re pretty much just not doing anything.”

Max Sinclair, chief executive and founder of A.I. technology firm Ecomtent, suggested his employees avoid the company’s downtown offices on concert days, saying he doesn’t see the point in forcing people to endure potential traffic jams.

“It’s going to be less productive for us, and it’s going to be just a pain for everyone, so it’s easier to avoid it,” Sinclair said.

“We’re a hybrid company, so we can be flexible. It just makes sense.”

Swift’s concerts are the latest pop culture moment to draw attention to Toronto’s notoriously disastrous daily commute.

In June, One Direction singer Niall Horan uploaded a social media video of himself walking through traffic to reach the venue for his concert.

“Traffic’s too bad in Toronto, so we’re walking to the venue,” he wrote in the post.

Toronto Transit Commission spokesperson Stuart Green says the public agency has been working for more than a year on plans to ease the pressure of so many Swifties in one confined area.

“We are preparing for something that would be akin to maybe the Beatles coming in the ‘60s,” he said.

Dozens of buses and streetcars have been added to transit routes around the stadium, and the TTC has consulted the city on potential emergency scenarios.

Green will be part of a command centre operated by the City of Toronto and staffed by Toronto police leaders, emergency services and others who have handled massive gatherings including the Raptors’ NBA championship parade in 2019.

“There may be some who will say we’re over-preparing, and that’s fair,” Green said.

“But we know based on what’s happened in other places, better to be over-prepared than under-prepared.”

Metrolinx, the agency for Ontario’s GO Transit system, has also added extra trips and extended hours in some regions to accommodate fans looking to travel home.

A day before Swift’s first performance, the city began clearing out tents belonging to homeless people near the venue. The city said two people were offered space in a shelter.

“As the area around Rogers Centre is expected to receive a high volume of foot traffic in the coming days, this area has been prioritized for outreach work to ensure the safety of individuals in encampments, other residents, businesses and visitors — as is standard for large-scale events,” city spokesperson Russell Baker said in a statement.

Homeless advocate Diana Chan McNally questioned whether money and optics were behind the measure.

“People (in the area) are already in close proximity to concerts, sports games, and other events that generate massive amounts of traffic — that’s nothing new,” she said in a statement.

“If people were offered and willingly accepted a shelter space, free of coercion, I support that fully — that’s how it should happen.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.



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‘It’s literally incredible’: Swifties line up for merch ahead of Toronto concerts

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TORONTO – Hundreds of Taylor Swift fans lined up outside the gates of Toronto’s Rogers Centre Wednesday, with hopes of snagging some of the pop star’s merchandise on the eve of the first of her six sold-out shows in the city.

Swift is slated to perform at the venue from Thursday to Saturday, and the following week from Nov. 21 to Nov. 23, with concert merchandise available for sale on some non-show days.

Swifties were all smiles as they left the merch shop, their arms full of sweaters and posters bearing pictures of the star and her Eras Tour logo.

Among them was Zoe Haronitis, 22, who said she waited in line for about two hours to get $300 worth of merchandise, including some apparel for her friends.

Haronitis endured the autumn cold and the hefty price tag even though she hasn’t secured a concert ticket. She said she’s hunting down a resale ticket and plans to spend up to $600.

“I haven’t really budgeted anything,” Haronitis said. “I don’t care how much money I spent. That was kind of my mindset.”

The megastar’s merchandise costs up to $115 for a sweater, and $30 for tote bags and other accessories.

Rachel Renwick, 28, also waited a couple of hours in line for merchandise, but only spent about $70 after learning that a coveted blue sweater and a crewneck had been snatched up by other eager fans before she got to the shop. She had been prepared to spend much more, she said.

“The two prized items sold out. I think a lot more damage would have been done,” Renwick said, adding she’s still determined to buy a sweater at a later date.

Renwick estimated she’s spent about $500 in total on “all-things Eras Tour,” including her concert outfit and merchandise.

The long queue for Swift merch is just a snapshot of what the city will see in the coming days. It’s estimated that up to 500,000 visitors from outside Toronto will be in town during the concert period.

Tens of thousands more are also expected to attend Taylgate’24, an unofficial Swiftie fan event scheduled to be held at the nearby Metro Toronto Convention Centre.

Meanwhile, Destination Toronto has said it anticipates the economic impact of the Eras Tour could grow to $282 million as the money continues to circulate.

But for fans like Haronitis, the experience in Toronto comes down to the Swiftie community. Knowing that Swift is going to be in the city for six shows and seeing hundreds gather just for merchandise is “awesome,” she said.

Even though Haronitis hasn’t officially bought her ticket yet, she said she’s excited to see the megastar.

“It’s literally incredible.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Via Rail seeks judicial review on CN’s speed restrictions

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OTTAWA – Via Rail is asking for a judicial review on the reasons why Canadian National Railway Co. has imposed speed restrictions on its new passenger trains.

The Crown corporation says it is seeking the review from the Federal Court after many attempts at dialogue with the company did not yield valid reasoning for the change.

It says the restrictions imposed last month are causing daily delays on Via Rail’s Québec City-Windsor corridor, affecting thousands of passengers and damaging Via Rail’s reputation with travellers.

CN says in a statement that it imposed the restrictions at rail crossings given the industry’s experience and known risks associated with similar trains.

The company says Via has asked the courts to weigh in even though Via has agreed to buy the equipment needed to permanently fix the issues.

Via said in October that no incidents at level crossings have been reported in the two years since it put 16 Siemens Venture trains into operation.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:CN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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