VICTORIA — The New Democrats have been forced to defend their Clean B.C. climate plan because of the discovery that the government’s own modelling says it will hurt the economy.
The province’s economic output would take a $28.1 billion hit according to the model, which was keyed to the Clean B.C. Roadmap for 2030, released earlier this year.
Leading the NDP effort to discredit the report is George Heyman, the cabinet minister for the environment and climate change.
Heyman dismissed the report as misleading, unhelpful and just plain wrong. When the Opposition cited the findings during question period, Heyman accused the other side of practising denialism on climate change.
He also suggested that if the province were to abandon the emission reduction target for 2030, it would consign B.C. to a future of record-breaking floods and wildfires.
The environment minister fired off a letter to the B.C. Business Council disputing the findings on a point-by-point basis.
The council responded this week with a six-page letter from chief economist Ken Peacock, co-author of the earlier analysis, and policy vice-president David Williams.
They began by dismissing the insinuation that the business council was fronting an exercise in climate change denial.
Rather, they were alarmed by the target of a 40 per cent reduction by 2030.
“The time frame is too short to allow for asset turnover, transition technologies, and enough electrification,” they wrote.
“As the government’s modelling shows, the main mechanism to achieve quick reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030 is to substantially downsize the B.C. economy, especially its export and industrial base.”
Note the emphasis on “the government’s modelling.”
Heyman, in his letter, suggested the council “had asserted” that Clean B.C. would have a $28.1 billion affect on the economy.
The council asserted nothing of the kind, wrote Peacock and Williams. “We are reporting that result from the government’s own economic modelling.”
Granted it was only a model. The impact could be lower. Or — ahem — higher.
The modelled impact “is large enough — roughly the equivalent of the province’s annual health care budget — that we are concerned.”
“We cannot afford to miss the economic opportunities in clean energy and clean technology, none of which was factored into the statistics that the business council offered British Columbians,” he argued during question period.
The business council duo pointed the environment minister back to the published contents of his own economic modelling report.
“Nowhere does the report suggest that uncertainty about the future energy economy should be taken to mean there are large, unambiguously positive economic gains for B.C. that are missing from the modelling and can be assumed to negate its findings,” they wrote.
“We find it hard to believe there is at least $28.1 billion of GDP in 2030 to be gained from ‘economic opportunities’ that are missing from the model and sufficient to overcome the GDP losses that are predicted by the model.”
Heyman invited the critics to consider the alternative: “You do not factor the considerable costs to the province and to industry in remediating climate change induced damages at multiple levels.”
That is because: “B.C.’s emissions are 0.19 per cent of global GHG emissions. This is not to say that we should not manage our emissions, but rather recognizing the reality that 99.81 per cent of global GHG emissions currently occur outside B.C.”
The government’s own model recognizes the limitations of what can be accomplished realistically here in B.C.: “Nowhere in the report do the modelers suggest CleanBC will independently alter the pace of change in the global climate — leading to cost savings for the provincial budget and industry that are missing from the modelling.
“We do not believe it is credible to suggest that implementing CleanBC would allow B.C. to avoid budgeting for the costs of extreme weather events or of making infrastructure more resilient.”
Instead they say the province “must budget to improve infrastructure resiliency and repair damage from extreme weather events, regardless of CleanBC. Indeed, it would be reckless not to do so.”
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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