Widespread immunity from the virus that has consumed our lives for the last two years means we can all look forward to “living differently” with COVID as the province relaxes health restrictions over the next few months.
But it won’t mean a return to pre-pandemic norms anytime soon, said the region’s top doctor during Friday’s COVID-19 community update.
Chief medical officer of health Dr. Hsiu-Li Wang said our high vaccine coverage and the emergence of therapeutic drugs make it possible to transition to “living differently with COVID” than we have over the last two years.
And although hospitalizations remain high across the region and the province, there are promising signs the COVID pandemic is starting to wane.
“I’m grateful for the vaccines and for what our residents have done to get us to this place,” Wang said.
Wastewater signals showing the presence of COVID in Waterloo region have plateaued and are decreasing along with the rate of infection and the number of hospitalizations.
But although “COVID trends are slowly decreasing,” Wang does not expect to see a rapid fall in the number of cases like in other waves, and warned there may be some increases in short term.
Tempering the good news in Friday’s update was a warning that the Omicron sub variant BA.2 has been detected in local wastewater signals.
Wastewater samples collected from treatment plants in Cambridge, Kitchener and Waterloo, and monitored by a research team at the University of Waterloo, revealed the sub variant’s appearance late last month.
Wang said based on what has been seen internationally and across the province, the sub variant’s appearance was not unexpected and underlines the importance of continuing to increase our community immunity through vaccination.
While BA.2 appears more transmissible than the BA.1 Omicron variant, she added, there is no data yet to suggest it is more severe.
Increasing vaccination rates and following public health precautions has been effective at blunting the impacts of Omicron, but “residents should remain cautious as the province loosens restrictions,” she said.
Ontario Science Table data shows the fifth wave has plateaued or is in decline, but there is an expectation that relaxed public health measures will result in a resurgence of the disease.
The degree of resurgence will depend on vaccinations, the spread of Omicron and changes in behaviour like contact patterns and masking practices, Wang said.
Hospital admissions remain at their highest level across the province, across all age groups, Wang warned.
Since PCR testing for the virus continues to be reserved for vulnerable groups, wastewater indicators and outbreak trends continue to serve as a proxy to monitor local spread.
Wastewater data up to Jan. 29 indicates the signal appears to be slowing across the region.
Although the Cambridge signal appears to show an increase in the latest graph, Wang explained that due to environmental factors and inherent variations in daily and short term readings, it should be interpreted with caution.
School absenteeism rates
Wang said monitoring in schools and daycares has not shown any concerning trends and the average daily absenteeism rate is under 13 per cent.
Five schools in the region reported absenteeism rates between 20 and 30 per cent this week.
Hospitals, however, are still caring for a very high number of people and the strain on the healthcare system is expected to remain high for the next few weeks, she said.
Friday’s COVID dashboard shows 98 people are hospitalized with COVID in the region and 22 in ICU.
Between Jan. 1 and 31, the region logged 42 deaths with ages ranging from people in their 50s to over 100 years old.
The median age for those who died was 88 and those 80 and older accounted for 71 per cent of January deaths.
Although 73 per cent of those deaths were among those who had received at least two doses, Wang said the numbers would have been much higher if we did not have overall high vaccination rates and efforts in place to reduce contacts.
The risk of severe outcomes remains highest among the unvaccinated.
Unvaccinated individuals who become infected with COVID are six times more likely to end up in hospital and 12 times more likely to end up in the ICU.
Thirteen people who died last month were in long term care or retirement home settings, 57 per cent listed COVID as the underlying cause while 43 per cent listed COVID as a contributing cause but not the primary cause.
Wang said the numbers represents the extraordinary spread of Omicron at the start of the fifth wave and the reason we had to be cautious and take the measures we did to slow the spread and ensure hospital capacity.
Vaccination rate
The director of the region’s vaccination roll out, Vickie Murray, said as of Friday’s update, 88.35 per cent of eligible residents over the age of five have received one dose of the vaccine, 83.62 per cent of eligible residents in the same age group are fully vaccinated, and 54.12 per cent of children aged 5-11 have had at least one dose.
The region has administered 279,488 third doses, or approximately 64 per cent of all eligible residents.
