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Waterloo region real estate market returning to ‘balanced state’ due to rising interest rates, expert says

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After drastic influxes in the market during the worst of the pandemic, the real estate market in Waterloo region is “going back into a more balanced state” mainly due to rising interest rates, says a local expert.

“I would regard it as balanced,” said Paul Anglin, a real estate professor at the University of Guelph. “It’s not favoring the sellers as was true a year ago.”

Interest rates on home loans have climbed this year due to six separate hikes from the Bank of Canada in an effort to combat rising inflation. It was as low as 0.25 per cent back in January, but it now sits at 3.75 per cent.

Although rising rates are the “dominant” factor in the recalibration of the market, Anglin also attributes this to the lack of clarity about where interest rates are going, and discussions of a possible recession.

What a balanced market looks like

Anglin said a widely used measure of a balanced market is the monthly ratio of sales to listings at the beginning of the month.

Paul Anglin, a real estate professor at the University of Guelph, believes that sellers don’t have the power that they used to. (Submitted by Paul Anglin )

“And the current number is not too far from normal,” he said.

Last month in Waterloo Region, there were 489 properties sold between single family homes, townhomes, condos and semi-detached properties, compared to 928 properties that were up for sale. A year ago it was virtually the other way around.

“The number that I often pay attention to is how many days does it take to sell a house and that has increased compared to a year ago,” he said.

Last month, a home sat on the market for an average of 22 days, more than double from a year ago. The last time we’ve seen this number was close to the start of the pandemic in May 2020.

“The days on market is not so rushed as in the past,” Anglin said. “With an average of about three weeks, there is enough time for buyers to compare alternatives without being so long as to make a seller too worried that they will not sell to any buyer.”

The sales price on average for a single family home in October of this year was about $860,500, which is down by about 27 per cent from the height of the market back in February.

Condos have seen a drop too but not as significant —  last month the sales average was about $488,200, down 14.5 per cent from February.

Despite this, the sales price on average in October for single family properties and condos is much higher than pre-pandemic levels —  they’re up about 145 per cent respectively from October 2019.

New home price declines more than the national average

In September, the prices of new homes fell by 0.1 per cent nationwide — it was the first drop since before the pandemic. However, Cambridge, Kitchener and Waterloo saw a more dramatic decrease of 0.6 per cent.

Megan Bell, president of the Waterloo Region Association of Realtors, attributes this to people moving to the region from the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) looking for an affordable option, and where they would qualify for a loan.

So many people came and that demand pushed the home prices up so they’re nearly the same as Toronto.

“I think we’re seeing some people either moving back because our prices were kind of on par with the GTA — or just a little bit under — the affordability really wasn’t there, so they might have to continue driving down [Highway 401] to continue to qualify,” Bell said.

Megan Bell, the president of the Waterloo Region Association of Realtors, thinks we’re heading toward a balanced market too, but thinks that sellers still hold the power. (Submitted by Megan Bell)

Another thing that contributed to the figure, according to Bell, is that people moved to the region during the pandemic since they were able to work from home. Prices were bumped up due to the influx and demand, but some have since left because they have to go back to the office in-person.

These things along with inflation and climbing interest rates bring the market to where it is today, Bell said.

She believes that “we’re heading toward a more balanced market” too, but thinks that it sways in favour of the sellers.

Statistics Canada, which released the 0.6 per cent figure, said in a statement that “builders cited bad market conditions as the reason for price decreases.”

Advice for buyers and sellers

in the meantime, Anglin offers advice to both buyers and sellers:

“For now, buyers and sellers have to make their best decision given the available information,” he said. “So, my advice for buyers is the same that it has been for a while: Buy a house that you would be happy living in, even if the price were to fall.”

“For sellers, there is always the possibility of regret but, again, if you like where you live now, then enjoy living there. In both cases, you need to accept the risk, since life offers few guarantees.”

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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