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‘We are not decoupling’: G-7 leaders agree on approach to ‘de-risk’ from China

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Chinese President Xi Jinping and hands with then U.S Vice President Joe Biden inside the Great Hall of the People on December 4, 2013 in Beijing, China.
Lintao Zhang | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Leaders of the Group of Seven agreed there’s a need to de-risk, not decouple from China, and acknowledged challenges posed by the mainland’s practices which “distort the global economy.”

“We are not decoupling or turning inwards,” the G-7 said in a joint statement released over the weekend as leaders met in Hiroshima, Japan. “At the same time, we recognize that economic resilience requires de-risking and diversifying.”

Leaders added, “We will seek to address the challenges posed by China’s non-market policies and practices, which distort the global economy. We will counter malign practices, such as illegitimate technology transfer or data disclosure.”

Reiterating the stance, President Joe Biden said at a press conference on Sunday: “We’re not looking to decouple from China, we’re looking to de-risk and diversify our relationship with China.

He explained that means taking steps to diversify supply chains, “so we’re not dependent on any one country for necessary product. It means resisting economic coercion together and countering harmful practices that hurt our workers. It means protecting a narrow set of advanced technologies critical for our national security.”

Speaking after the G-7 finance ministers and central bank governors’ meeting earlier this month, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said China’s behavior is “a matter that should be of concern to all of us.”

“There have been examples of China using economic coercion on countries that take actions that China’s not happy with from a geopolitical perspective,” she said, citing China’s trade disputes with Australia and Lithuania as examples.

In their statement the G-7 leaders said, “We will foster resilience to economic coercion. We also recognize the necessity of protecting certain advanced technologies that could be used to threaten our national security without unduly limiting trade and investment.”

The world’s leading democracies said the group will “reduce excessive dependencies in our critical supply chains” while emphasizing the need to cooperate with China, citing its role in the international community and the size of its economy.

“We stand prepared to build constructive and stable relations with China, recognizing the importance of engaging candidly with and expressing our concerns directly to China. We act in our national interest,” the statement said.

President Joe Biden’s administration previously briefed industry groups such as the Chamber of Commerce on measures seeking to curb American investments into China, according to media reports.

Such rules would mean stricter guidelines for U.S. companies that will be required to inform the government of new investments in Chinese technology companies, according to Politico. Deals in critical sectors such as microchips will also be banned, according to the publication.

U.K. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak also told journalists that London was open to following the U.S. lead over curbs on Chinese investment, the Financial Times reported.

Decoupling risks ahead?

Ahead of the weekend’s G-7 summit, Goldman Sachs economists Hui Shan and Andrew Tilton said they expected steps to be taken by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, or CFIUS — a U.S. government agency that reviews deals involving foreign investment in the U.S. to see if the transaction infringe on the country’s national security.

In a note previewing the set of measures earlier this month, they said there may be “more focus on refining the existing tariff, export control, and investment regimes once basic frameworks are in place.”

“We expect them to be fairly narrowly-focused on advanced semiconductors and related technologies, paralleling last autumn’s export controls, and do not anticipate significant restrictions on secondary market portfolio investments.”

‘Far-reaching’ damages

The impact of a widening rift between the U.S. and China may lead to further damage, economists at Allianz said in a note las Wednesday.

“The economic implications of a further decoupling between the West and China could be far-reaching,” they wrote, adding the damage to the Chinese economy could be “far from negligible.”

“China could retaliate by curtailing the supply of critical raw materials in which it has a dominant position, which could severely disrupt global supply chains,” they said.

“But this is unlikely as it already applies some forms of outbound investment restrictions and is still looking towards economic pragmatism.”

The Taiwan factor

Further escalations could potentially lie ahead for U.S.-China relations after Washington concluded negotiations with Taiwan on a number of trade items on Friday, marking a potential deal on the first part of the bilateral “21st Century Trade” initiative.

The first agreement under the initiative includes: customs administration and trade facilitation, good regulatory practices, services domestic regulation, anticorruption, and small and medium-sized enterprises, the office of the United States Trade Representative said in a release.

U.S. trade representative Katherine Tai said of the agreement, “This accomplishment represents an important step forward in strengthening the U.S.-Taiwan economic relationship.”

China has repeatedly warned against deepening bilateral engagement between the U.S. and Taiwan.

Goldman Sachs argued that with the Taiwan factor, the focus of U.S.-China tensions may shift from trade to military.

“The more immediate focus has been on building Taiwan’s military capabilities to deter a conflict,” U.S. political economists Alec Phillips and Tim Krupa wrote earlier this month, adding that they see “good odds” that the U.S. Congress passes additional support to currently existing schemes.

 

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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