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Economy

Welcome to the peak everything market and economy – CNN

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New York (CNN Business)Stocks are near record highs. Housing prices are soaring. Inflation is running wild.

The Covid-19 pandemic has helped create a financial environment beset by unusual (and perhaps unsustainable) spikes in asset prices.
The rapid shutdown of the economy in the spring of 2020 led to a brief but painful recession. But the resulting reopening has caused a massive boom that has some wondering if America is now in the midst of a new Roaring Twenties … just like 100 years ago.
Still, there are indications that the economy and market may soon be reaching peak levels — for just about everything.
“What will the return to the new normal look like? We may soon be past the peak,” said Yung-Yu Ma, chief investment strategist with BMO Wealth Management.

Earnings momentum should begin to fade

Investors and consumers should prepare for the possibility that the economy may finally start to settle down in the latter half of 2021 and into 2022, especially if the Delta variant becomes an even bigger problem.
Stocks may have a tougher time advancing as valuations grow more expensive and earnings growth inevitably cools.
Price-to-earnings ratios for stocks are well above their five- and 10-year averages, according to estimates compiled by FactSet.
Meanwhile, analysts think earnings for the S&P 500 surged nearly 90% in the second quarter from a year ago. But that will probably be the top growth rate for the foreseeable future.
Earnings growth is expected to fall to 28% in the third quarter and 21% in the fourth quarter. In 2022, profits are only anticipated to climb 9.5%. Once investors realize that this could be the peak of corporate earnings growth, company valuations (and stock market levels) could pull back.
“I do think the markets — all of the markets — have priced in really good outlooks. So there could be more risk to the downside since so much good news has been priced in,” said Tim Schmidt, chief investment officer with Prudential.
Schmidt added that he doesn’t see any bubbles per se, but that the market may be a little ahead of itself.

Housing prices may finally pull back a bit

New home sales dipped in July, a possible sign that buyers are unwilling to lose one bidding war after another in a market where housing supply is still tight.
Renters may be opting to stay put until prices finally cool off a bit. If sales continue to dip, it stands to reason that prices inevitably will fall as well.
Economists don’t expect that will lead to another big housing market crash like the late 2000’s.
But any noticeable slide in housing prices should have a negative impact on the broader economy. That’s because housing makes up about 15% to 18% of the nation’s overall gross domestic product, according to the National Association of Home Builders.
A potential top for the broader economy isn’t all bad news though. Inflation could be less of a problem in the next few months.
Eric Winograd, senior economist with investment firm AB, noted in a recent report that “with the pace of gasoline price increases moderating, we are likely at or near the peak in headline CPI.”
The prices of other goods and services that have experienced gigantic increases due to temporary factors such as supply constraints and a massive, rapid uptick in demand, may cool off too.
“While inflation is high, it likely is at or near its peak,” said Scott Ruesterholz, a portfolio manager at Insight Investment, in a report.
“We will be looking to see if volatile categories that have driven much of the recent surge in prices, like rental cars, hotel rates, and used cars, shows signs of moderation,” he added.

Inflation could cool, but it won’t go away for good

But what happens next in the labor market is the big wild card for inflation. Wages have been rising. And when workers are making more money, that has the most potential to drive longer-term prices higher.
BMO’s Ma said wage pressures should continue to go higher because of permanent changes to the dynamics of the labor market as a result of Covid-19.
Employee shortages in key services industries have forced retailers and restaurants to boost wages to attract more workers.
“We don’t want to be anchored to pre-pandemic norms. It’s a new environment and in a lot of ways things will be very different. Inflation could be persistent for some time to come,” he said.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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