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What Canadians can expect from COVID-19 this fall and winter – CBC.ca

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With the beginning of fall and a more transmissible strain of the coronavirus than last year’s taking hold, Canadians may wonder about the outlook of the pandemic over the next few months.

Some epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists are expressing cautious optimism, hoping that greater immunity levels just may be able to contain the delta variant that causes COVID-19, and that many jurisdictions could see hospitalization rates coming down.

“I’m always optimistic, and here’s why,” said epidemiologist Raywat Deonandan, an associate professor at the University of Ottawa. “Pandemics have a beginning, middle and end. And where are we right now? Locally, I think we’re near the end.”

Others, however, like B.C. epidemiologist Caroline Colijn, suspect Canada is still heading into a “challenging fall” despite considerable progress, particularly with vaccinations.

“The delta variant is much more infectious than the COVID that we had around last fall and even last spring,” she said.

As well, provinces such as Alberta and Saskatchewan are currently in crisis mode, as a spike in COVID-19 hospitalizations among the unvaccinated has overloaded their health-care systems.

WATCH | Hospitals in Sask. and Alta. cope with spiking COVID cases:

Health-care systems in Alberta, Saskatchewan ‘broken’ by COVID surge, doctors say

2 days ago

Dr. Aisha Mirza, an ER physician in Edmonton, and Dr. Hassan Masri, an ICU and critical care physician in Saskatoon, share how the provinces’ hospitals and medical professionals are struggling amid a fourth wave of COVID-19. 16:41

“I have no idea how long the crisis will last,” said Craig Jenne, an infectious diseases expert at the University of Calgary.

“We may see the flattening of the curve in the coming days, but the real question is, when does that curve start to decline?” 

Colder weather means people spending more time indoors, and the potential for an increase of viral transmission. Meanwhile, another delta surge or a new variant could emerge that drastically changes the outlook, some experts say.

Here is a look at the factors at play.

Where we are now

By many measures, the country is in a much stronger position facing COVID-19 than it was this time last year.

Last fall, Canadians were still without vaccines, which wouldn’t be approved until December, when Health Canada gave the green light to Pfizer-BioNTech and, weeks later, Moderna. Approval for Astra-Zeneca would follow a couple months later.  

Now, according to the CBC’s vaccine tracker, Canada has reached 70 per cent of its total population and 80 per cent of its eligible population with two doses of a COVID-19 vaccine.

Look how far we have come,” Deonandan said. “We have extraordinary vaccines at supply levels that all of us here in the rich world can access…. We have a rapid test. We know so much about this disease. We have all the tools needed to control this.”

University of Ottawa epidemiologist Raywat Deonandan says he is optimistic about the outlook for the COVID-19 pandemic. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)

All the accumulated knowledge about the virus over the past year and a half makes it slightly less unpredictable, Jenne said.

“We know what works to slow it. We know who’s at risk of hospitalization. We know the impact of our public health measures.”

Yet, even though there are successful vaccines and successful vaccination programs, the infectiousness of the virus means they are not quite successful enough, Colijn said. 

“It’s so infectious that you really need almost everybody to be immunized,” she said.So where does that leave us for the outlook? What may happen is that most people who are not vaccinated will get COVID.”

Hospitalizations, waning immunity and the delta variant

Deonandan said he expects greater immunity levels will result in a drop in the hospitalization rate — the proportion of infected people who become hospitalized. 

Dr. Christopher Labos, a Montreal cardiologist with a degree in epidemiology, also offered hope that where vaccination rates are higher, and where most restrictions — mask wearing and vaccine passports — are in place, it’s going to be possible to contain the delta variant.

“And, at the very least, even if we do see cases, maybe we won’t see as many people ending up in hospital,” he said

Nurses suit up with personal protective equipment before tending to a patient in the emergency department at Scarborough General Hospital, in northeast Toronto, back on Apr. 8, 2021. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)

One of the big unknowns, however, is the potential waning of immunity over time. Though Deonandan said he expects the ability of vaccines to protect against initial infection will gradually weaken, he predicts their protection against hospitalization and death “will remain extraordinarily good.”

Based on when most Canadians received their shots, waning immunity could start to be an issue around late October, said Dr. Andrew Morris, an infectious diseases specialist at Toronto’s Sinai Health and University Health Network.

And the question, he said, is whether provinces will anticipate this and offer people booster shots to try to head off the potential problem.

“If all the governments in Canada say they’re going to wait to boost until we sort of see the vaccines aren’t working any longer, it could kind of be a little bit too late,” he said. 

However, some health officials suggest another possibility — that the delta variant may have peaked. That’s the analysis of the U.S.-based COVID-19 Scenario Modelling Hub, which consists of a team of professors from across the country who provide projections about the virus. 

Its modelling predicts a steady decline in COVID-19 cases in the U.S., with no significant winter surge, NPR reported. 

Justin Lessler, a professor in the department of epidemiology at the University of North Carolina who helps run the hub, told NPR that while there is wide-ranging uncertainty in the models, deaths could drop to 100 a day by March. That, he said, is dependant upon children getting vaccinated and that a more contagious variant doesn’t emerge.

Dr. Andrew Morris, an infectious diseases specialist at Toronto’s Sinai Health and University Health Network, wonders whether provinces will offer people COVID vaccine booster shots in anticipation of potential waning immunity that could start developing later this fall. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)

Deonandan said it’s certainly possible that some parts of the world, such as the U.K. and some U.S. states, have seen the peak of the delta wave.

“I anticipate that the northern hemisphere should see a decline in the delta wave by the end of this year,” he said.

But both Deonandan and the COVID-19 Scenario Modelling Hub also offered a somewhat grim prediction — that a decline in infection rates would be due in part to the fast-spreading delta variant just running out of people to infect.

With so many delta infections among people who are unvaccinated, those who survive might have sufficient immunity, which “starts us on that herd immunity conversation again,” Deonandan said.

“A combination of sufficient coverage plus unbelievably high vaccination uptake, which we are experiencing in Canada, might mean by January we will see no more waves,” he said.

New variants?

Having said that, variants will likely continue to emerge, but whether any will become a dominant strain remains to be seen, Labos said. Much will depend on how vaccination efforts ramp up around the world.

“New variants emerge because the virus keeps spreading,” he said. “It keeps copying itself. It keeps mutating. And so the more chances you give it to copy itself, the more chances you give it to have a mutation that can turn it into a different strain that’s more aggressive.”

Deonandan said he is a “tad concerned” that a new variant could emerge that changes factors such as the transmissibility of the virus, the profile of symptoms, and the ability to detect the virus.

WATCH | U.S. moving ahead on COVID vaccine boosters for some people:

U.S. CDC recommends 3rd COVID-19 vaccine doses for millions of Americans

5 days ago

An advisory panel at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has recommended a third dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine for Americans aged 65 and older, as well as for some adults with underlying medical conditions that put them at risk of severe disease. 4:29

But he also pointed out that the COVID-19 vaccines have proven effective against all the coronovirus variants that have emerged so far.

“Therefore, there’s no reason to expect any new variants not to be at least a little bit preventable by our vaccines, and probably preventable by a high amount,” he said. “So I’m not overly concerned about it.”

Morris views things a bit differently.

“I know that there are some experts who feel that the likelihood of a more virulent strain that’s vaccine resistant is extremely unlikely to happen. But, you know, I’m willing to wait and see.”

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What’s the greatest holiday gift: lips, hair, skin? Give the gift of great skin this holiday season

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Give the gift of great skin this holiday season

Skinstitut Holiday Gift Kits take the stress out of gifting

Toronto, October 31, 2024 – Beauty gifts are at the top of holiday wish lists this year, and Laser Clinics Canada, a leader in advanced beauty treatments and skincare, is taking the pressure out of seasonal shopping. Today, Laser Clincs Canada announces the arrival of its 2024 Holiday Gift Kits, courtesy of Skinstitut, the exclusive skincare line of Laser Clinics Group.

In time for the busy shopping season, the limited-edition Holiday Gifts Kits are available in Laser Clinics locations in the GTA and Ottawa. Clinics are conveniently located in popular shopping centers, including Hillcrest Mall, Square One, CF Sherway Gardens, Scarborough Town Centre, Rideau Centre, Union Station and CF Markville. These limited-edition Kits are available on a first come, first served basis.

“These kits combine our best-selling products, bundled to address the most relevant skin concerns we’re seeing among our clients,” says Christina Ho, Senior Brand & LAM Manager at Laser Clinics Canada. “With several price points available, the kits offer excellent value and suit a variety of gift-giving needs, from those new to cosmeceuticals to those looking to level up their skincare routine. What’s more, these kits are priced with a savings of up to 33 per cent so gift givers can save during the holiday season.

There are two kits to select from, each designed to address key skin concerns and each with a unique theme — Brightening Basics and Hydration Heroes.

Brightening Basics is a mix of everyday essentials for glowing skin for all skin types. The bundle comes in a sleek pink, reusable case and includes three full-sized products: 200ml gentle cleanser, 50ml Moisture Defence (normal skin) and 30ml1% Hyaluronic Complex Serum. The Brightening Basics kit is available at $129, a saving of 33 per cent.

Hydration Heroes is a mix of hydration essentials and active heroes that cater to a wide variety of clients. A perfect stocking stuffer, this bundle includes four deluxe products: Moisture 15 15 ml Defence for normal skin, 10 ml 1% Hyaluronic Complex Serum, 10 ml Retinol Serum and 50 ml Expert Squalane Cleansing Oil. The kit retails at $59.

In addition to the 2024 Holiday Gifts Kits, gift givers can easily add a Laser Clinic Canada gift card to the mix. Offering flexibility, recipients can choose from a wide range of treatments offered by Laser Clinics Canada, or they can expand their collection of exclusive Skinstitut products.

 

Brightening Basics 2024 Holiday Gift Kit by Skinstitut, available exclusively at Laser Clincs Canada clinics and online at skinstitut.ca.

Hydration Heroes 2024 Holiday Gift Kit by Skinstitut – available exclusively at Laser Clincs Canada clinics and online at skinstitut.ca.

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Here is how to prepare your online accounts for when you die

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LONDON (AP) — Most people have accumulated a pile of data — selfies, emails, videos and more — on their social media and digital accounts over their lifetimes. What happens to it when we die?

It’s wise to draft a will spelling out who inherits your physical assets after you’re gone, but don’t forget to take care of your digital estate too. Friends and family might treasure files and posts you’ve left behind, but they could get lost in digital purgatory after you pass away unless you take some simple steps.

Here’s how you can prepare your digital life for your survivors:

Apple

The iPhone maker lets you nominate a “ legacy contact ” who can access your Apple account’s data after you die. The company says it’s a secure way to give trusted people access to photos, files and messages. To set it up you’ll need an Apple device with a fairly recent operating system — iPhones and iPads need iOS or iPadOS 15.2 and MacBooks needs macOS Monterey 12.1.

For iPhones, go to settings, tap Sign-in & Security and then Legacy Contact. You can name one or more people, and they don’t need an Apple ID or device.

You’ll have to share an access key with your contact. It can be a digital version sent electronically, or you can print a copy or save it as a screenshot or PDF.

Take note that there are some types of files you won’t be able to pass on — including digital rights-protected music, movies and passwords stored in Apple’s password manager. Legacy contacts can only access a deceased user’s account for three years before Apple deletes the account.

Google

Google takes a different approach with its Inactive Account Manager, which allows you to share your data with someone if it notices that you’ve stopped using your account.

When setting it up, you need to decide how long Google should wait — from three to 18 months — before considering your account inactive. Once that time is up, Google can notify up to 10 people.

You can write a message informing them you’ve stopped using the account, and, optionally, include a link to download your data. You can choose what types of data they can access — including emails, photos, calendar entries and YouTube videos.

There’s also an option to automatically delete your account after three months of inactivity, so your contacts will have to download any data before that deadline.

Facebook and Instagram

Some social media platforms can preserve accounts for people who have died so that friends and family can honor their memories.

When users of Facebook or Instagram die, parent company Meta says it can memorialize the account if it gets a “valid request” from a friend or family member. Requests can be submitted through an online form.

The social media company strongly recommends Facebook users add a legacy contact to look after their memorial accounts. Legacy contacts can do things like respond to new friend requests and update pinned posts, but they can’t read private messages or remove or alter previous posts. You can only choose one person, who also has to have a Facebook account.

You can also ask Facebook or Instagram to delete a deceased user’s account if you’re a close family member or an executor. You’ll need to send in documents like a death certificate.

TikTok

The video-sharing platform says that if a user has died, people can submit a request to memorialize the account through the settings menu. Go to the Report a Problem section, then Account and profile, then Manage account, where you can report a deceased user.

Once an account has been memorialized, it will be labeled “Remembering.” No one will be able to log into the account, which prevents anyone from editing the profile or using the account to post new content or send messages.

X

It’s not possible to nominate a legacy contact on Elon Musk’s social media site. But family members or an authorized person can submit a request to deactivate a deceased user’s account.

Passwords

Besides the major online services, you’ll probably have dozens if not hundreds of other digital accounts that your survivors might need to access. You could just write all your login credentials down in a notebook and put it somewhere safe. But making a physical copy presents its own vulnerabilities. What if you lose track of it? What if someone finds it?

Instead, consider a password manager that has an emergency access feature. Password managers are digital vaults that you can use to store all your credentials. Some, like Keeper,Bitwarden and NordPass, allow users to nominate one or more trusted contacts who can access their keys in case of an emergency such as a death.

But there are a few catches: Those contacts also need to use the same password manager and you might have to pay for the service.

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Is there a tech challenge you need help figuring out? Write to us at onetechtip@ap.org with your questions.

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Pediatric group says doctors should regularly screen kids for reading difficulties

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The Canadian Paediatric Society says doctors should regularly screen children for reading difficulties and dyslexia, calling low literacy a “serious public health concern” that can increase the risk of other problems including anxiety, low self-esteem and behavioural issues, with lifelong consequences.

New guidance issued Wednesday says family doctors, nurses, pediatricians and other medical professionals who care for school-aged kids are in a unique position to help struggling readers access educational and specialty supports, noting that identifying problems early couldhelp kids sooner — when it’s more effective — as well as reveal other possible learning or developmental issues.

The 10 recommendations include regular screening for kids aged four to seven, especially if they belong to groups at higher risk of low literacy, including newcomers to Canada, racialized Canadians and Indigenous Peoples. The society says this can be done in a two-to-three-minute office-based assessment.

Other tips encourage doctors to look for conditions often seen among poor readers such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder; to advocate for early literacy training for pediatric and family medicine residents; to liaise with schools on behalf of families seeking help; and to push provincial and territorial education ministries to integrate evidence-based phonics instruction into curriculums, starting in kindergarten.

Dr. Scott McLeod, one of the authors and chair of the society’s mental health and developmental disabilities committee, said a key goal is to catch kids who may be falling through the cracks and to better connect families to resources, including quicker targeted help from schools.

“Collaboration in this area is so key because we need to move away from the silos of: everything educational must exist within the educational portfolio,” McLeod said in an interview from Calgary, where he is a developmental pediatrician at Alberta Children’s Hospital.

“Reading, yes, it’s education, but it’s also health because we know that literacy impacts health. So I think that a statement like this opens the window to say: Yes, parents can come to their health-care provider to get advice, get recommendations, hopefully start a collaboration with school teachers.”

McLeod noted that pediatricians already look for signs of low literacy in young children by way of a commonly used tool known as the Rourke Baby Record, which offers a checklist of key topics, such as nutrition and developmental benchmarks, to cover in a well-child appointment.

But he said questions about reading could be “a standing item” in checkups and he hoped the society’s statement to medical professionals who care for children “enhances their confidence in being a strong advocate for the child” while spurring partnerships with others involved in a child’s life such as teachers and psychologists.

The guidance said pediatricians also play a key role in detecting and monitoring conditions that often coexist with difficulty reading such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, but McLeod noted that getting such specific diagnoses typically involves a referral to a specialist, during which time a child continues to struggle.

He also acknowledged that some schools can be slow to act without a specific diagnosis from a specialist, and even then a child may end up on a wait list for school interventions.

“Evidence-based reading instruction shouldn’t have to wait for some of that access to specialized assessments to occur,” he said.

“My hope is that (by) having an existing statement or document written by the Canadian Paediatric Society … we’re able to skip a few steps or have some of the early interventions present,” he said.

McLeod added that obtaining specific assessments from medical specialists is “definitely beneficial and advantageous” to know where a child is at, “but having that sort of clear, thorough assessment shouldn’t be a barrier to intervention starting.”

McLeod said the society was partly spurred to act by 2022’s “Right to Read Inquiry Report” from the Ontario Human Rights Commission, which made 157 recommendations to address inequities related to reading instruction in that province.

He called the new guidelines “a big reminder” to pediatric providers, family doctors, school teachers and psychologists of the importance of literacy.

“Early identification of reading difficulty can truly change the trajectory of a child’s life.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 23, 2024.

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