This is an excerpt from Second Opinion, a weekly roundup of health and medical science news. If you haven’t subscribed yet, you can do that by clicking here.
As wave after wave of COVID-19 crashes over us, the hope is that we’ll eventually reach a point where seasonality of the virus will make the pandemic easier to predict and ride out.
But with highly contagious new variants emerging and driving surges around the world at different times — will we reach a regular “COVID season” anytime soon?
The pandemic hasn’t followed a clear-cut pattern in Canada, with waves hitting erratically in the spring, fall and winter over the past two and a half years, largely due to public health measures lifting and new variants threatening immunity from vaccines and prior infections.
Do you have a coronavirus question or news tip for CBC News? Email us at ask@cbc.ca
Different variants have also caught countries off guard at unexpected times (and sometimes missed them altogether), making it increasingly challenging for us to predict when and where COVID waves would hit next.
“Let’s be honest, the virus is in control here, not us,” said Dr. Michael Gardam, an infectious diseases physician, medical director of infection prevention and control at Women’s College Hospital in Toronto and CEO of Health PEI.
“We’re entirely at the whim of whatever random evolutionary events occur and it’s really hard to predict.”
Different countries, different waves
Canada currently has a nasty mix of Omicron subvariants — including BA.1, BA.2, BA.2.12.1 and BA.2.3 — fuelling an ongoing sixth wave after public health measures were widely lifted, despite over 80 per cent of Canadians vaccinated and close to half the population infected.
“It is going to get increasingly difficult to compare countries … and honestly even before this it was kind of hard,” said University of Arizona immunologist Deepta Bhattacharya.
“The Alpha wave really nailed the U.K. and it didn’t really here and I don’t know why that is. It certainly got introduced here and it didn’t spread to the same extent and I have no idea why. So there’s all sorts of stuff that makes it very difficult to understand and predict.”
People walk through Toronto’s Chinatown neighbourhood in March 2021. Canada currently has a nasty mix of Omicron subvariants fuelling an ongoing sixth wave after public health measures were widely lifted. (Evan Mitsui/CBC)
Population immunity could blunt future waves
Another factor that’s hard to predict is just how population immunity will change — and whether prior infections and high vaccination rates will protect, or wane over time.
Tulio de Oliveira, the director of South Africa’s Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation, said South Africa has had a high level of population immunity with over 90 per cent estimated to have been previously infected, vaccinated or both.
“That’s one of the reasons why we believe that the big Omicron wave that we had didn’t translate to a very high number of hospitalizations and deaths,” he said.
“And BA.2, despite emerging and going on to dominate all the infections in South Africa, did not translate into an uptick of infection, which was very different in Europe, where they had a BA.1 wave followed by a BA.2 wave.”
That double whammy of Omicron’s BA.1 and BA.2 hit Canada hard as well, fuelling a devastating fifth wave late last year that subsided right as BA.2 sparked a smaller sixth wave in April — but it also drove up our levels of population immunity.
“It gives you a sense that the more people who are infected with this and are vaccinated, the better you are at weathering it,” said Gardam.
“The hope is it starts to become like the other coronaviruses that infect us every year that cause colds … and eventually it’s pretty hard for the virus to come up with something so novel that you haven’t seen part of it before.”
Previously, Canada was more in line with a country like South Korea given our high vaccination rates and previously low levels of prior infection, de Oliveira said, with much of the country seeing relatively low levels of COVID throughout the pandemic.
With Omicron, we were more similar to countries like South Africa and the U.S. with much higher levels of population immunity — but our high vaccination rate protected us.
“What that means is that potentially as new variants and subvariants of Omicron emerge … that may translate in a relatively high number of infections, but potentially not in a very high rate of hospitalization and death,” he said.
“Look at wave one, it was a very small wave but there were a lot of hospitalizations,” said Gardam. “Then finally Omicron hit and the spike in infections was insane, but the death rate never got as high as it did in earlier waves. So we are getting better at fighting this off.”
WATCH | Canadians urged to get COVID-19 booster shots to fight 6th wave:
Canadians urged to get COVID-19 booster shots to blunt 6th wave
18 days ago
Duration 2:00
All signs indicate Canada is going through a sixth pandemic wave, Dr. Theresa Tam confirms. Her message to Canadians: wear a mask and get boosted if eligible. 2:00
Gardam said the difference between provinces like Prince Edward Island and Ontario throughout the pandemic is that the Maritime provinces that took a COVID zero approach had little pre-existing immunity over the last two years.
But when Omicron hit in December, it exploited the province’s lack of population immunity.
“It was just like bang, here it is,” he said. “And it’s still going through the population and yet we had stricter measures than Ontario and other provinces did, but they had all these different waves going through that we didn’t have.”
How will we get to ‘COVID season’ with variants constantly emerging?
While it’s unclear if Canada’s newfound levels of population immunity and consistently high vaccination rates will fend off future waves of the virus and get us closer to seasonality, there are early hints from other countries that we may be able to better predict waves going forward.
Tom Wenseleers, an evolutionary biologist at Belgium’s KU Leuven University said on Twitter that South Africa is starting to show signs of seasonality with COVID, which could look like “a significant wave every six months with significant mortality and morbidity.”
The BA.4 & BA.5 Omicron subvariant-driven increase of new confirmed Covid cases in South Africa gives a good idea of what the endemic equilibrium will look like: a significant wave every 6 months with significant mortality & morbidity. ???? <a href=”https://t.co/I9jd5gMIPG”>pic.twitter.com/I9jd5gMIPG</a>
“The impact on the healthcare system of both BA.2.12.1 and BA.4 and BA.5 is really not clear yet. They will cause waves of infections, for sure, but the impact on hospitalizations & expected mortality cannot yet be estimated at this time,” he told CBC News.
“The early data would seem to suggest similar severity as original Omicron in terms of case hospitalization ratio … but this is really early days to infer this.”
de Oliveira, who led the research team that identified subvariants BA.4 and BA.5 in South Africa, said waning immunity from infection and vaccination could factor into their spread.
“The only thing that may play a role in that is just the timing of the BA.1 wave, and that’s why we are looking very carefully at the data,” he said.
“We are talking about three or four months past the peak of BA.1 and we know around three or four months is when the population immunity starts decreasing.”
A new preprint study co-authored by de Oliveira, which has not yet been peer reviewed, suggested there could be “growth advantages” for BA.4 and BA.5 over BA.2 in South Africa that could potentially spark another wave, but whether that will happen there or in other countries remains to be seen.
And more variants are likely on the horizon.
“That just seems to be the behaviour of SARS-CoV-2 and I think that we shouldn’t be shocked when we see another variant,” said Alyson Kelvin, a virologist at the Canadian Center for Vaccinology and the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization in Saskatoon.
“But also keep planning for them, unfortunately, which I think, impacts our vaccination strategies … by the time you roll [an updated vaccine] out there’s a new variant.”
People brave the snow to lineup for COVID-19 testing in early January in Vancouver. Canada’s chaotic COVID wave pattern hasn’t shown major signs of seasonal transmission yet, but there are some indications we could eventually get there. (Ben Nelms/CBC)
While Canada’s chaotic COVID wave pattern hasn’t shown major signs of seasonality yet, there are some indications we’re moving towards it.
“There still is seasonality associated with COVID. It doesn’t mean that it’s a perfect fit, but of course there are times during the colder months in Canada where we see more cases,” said Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious diseases physician at Toronto General Hospital.
“Hopefully this wave will subside and we have a great summer ahead of us …. but can that be disrupted with a very transmissible variant? Maybe. It might.”
Gardam said if we look long-term at other viruses like H1N1, the flu strain that started the 1918 pandemic, we can expect COVID-19 to circulate for many years now that eliminating it altogether isn’t possible — but it likely won’t cause anywhere near the same level of illness.
“I have to assume that 20 years from now, there will be remnants of this coronavirus around that we get infected with regularly,” he said. “But it’s just not a big deal anymore.”
TORONTO – Will Taylor Swift bring chaos or do we all need to calm down?
It’s a question many Torontonians are asking this week as the city braces for the arrival of Swifties, the massive fan base of one of the world’s biggest pop stars.
Hundreds of thousands are expected to descend on the downtown core for the singer’s six concerts which kick off Thursday at the Rogers Centre and run until Nov. 23.
And while their arrival will be a boon to tourism dollars — the city estimates more than $282 million in economic impact — some worry it could worsen Toronto’s gridlock by clogging streets that already come to a standstill during rush hour.
Swift’s shows are set to collide with sports events at the nearby Scotiabank Arena, including a Raptors game on Friday and a Leafs game on Saturday.
Some residents and local businesses have already adjusted their plans to avoid the area and its planned road closures.
Aahil Dayani says he and some friends intended to throw a birthday bash for one of their pals until they realized it would overlap with the concerts.
“Something as simple as getting together and having dinner is now thrown out the window,” he said.
Dayani says the group rescheduled the gathering for after Swift leaves town. In the meantime, he plans to hunker down at his Toronto residence.
“Her coming into town has kind of changed up my social life,” he added.
“We’re pretty much just not doing anything.”
Max Sinclair, chief executive and founder of A.I. technology firm Ecomtent, suggested his employees avoid the company’s downtown offices on concert days, saying he doesn’t see the point in forcing people to endure potential traffic jams.
“It’s going to be less productive for us, and it’s going to be just a pain for everyone, so it’s easier to avoid it,” Sinclair said.
“We’re a hybrid company, so we can be flexible. It just makes sense.”
Swift’s concerts are the latest pop culture moment to draw attention to Toronto’s notoriously disastrous daily commute.
In June, One Direction singer Niall Horan uploaded a social media video of himself walking through traffic to reach the venue for his concert.
“Traffic’s too bad in Toronto, so we’re walking to the venue,” he wrote in the post.
Toronto Transit Commission spokesperson Stuart Green says the public agency has been working for more than a year on plans to ease the pressure of so many Swifties in one confined area.
“We are preparing for something that would be akin to maybe the Beatles coming in the ‘60s,” he said.
Dozens of buses and streetcars have been added to transit routes around the stadium, and the TTC has consulted the city on potential emergency scenarios.
Green will be part of a command centre operated by the City of Toronto and staffed by Toronto police leaders, emergency services and others who have handled massive gatherings including the Raptors’ NBA championship parade in 2019.
“There may be some who will say we’re over-preparing, and that’s fair,” Green said.
“But we know based on what’s happened in other places, better to be over-prepared than under-prepared.”
Metrolinx, the agency for Ontario’s GO Transit system, has also added extra trips and extended hours in some regions to accommodate fans looking to travel home.
A day before Swift’s first performance, the city began clearing out tents belonging to homeless people near the venue. The city said two people were offered space in a shelter.
“As the area around Rogers Centre is expected to receive a high volume of foot traffic in the coming days, this area has been prioritized for outreach work to ensure the safety of individuals in encampments, other residents, businesses and visitors — as is standard for large-scale events,” city spokesperson Russell Baker said in a statement.
Homeless advocate Diana Chan McNally questioned whether money and optics were behind the measure.
“People (in the area) are already in close proximity to concerts, sports games, and other events that generate massive amounts of traffic — that’s nothing new,” she said in a statement.
“If people were offered and willingly accepted a shelter space, free of coercion, I support that fully — that’s how it should happen.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Hundreds of Taylor Swift fans lined up outside the gates of Toronto’s Rogers Centre Wednesday, with hopes of snagging some of the pop star’s merchandise on the eve of the first of her six sold-out shows in the city.
Swift is slated to perform at the venue from Thursday to Saturday, and the following week from Nov. 21 to Nov. 23, with concert merchandise available for sale on some non-show days.
Swifties were all smiles as they left the merch shop, their arms full of sweaters and posters bearing pictures of the star and her Eras Tour logo.
Among them was Zoe Haronitis, 22, who said she waited in line for about two hours to get $300 worth of merchandise, including some apparel for her friends.
Haronitis endured the autumn cold and the hefty price tag even though she hasn’t secured a concert ticket. She said she’s hunting down a resale ticket and plans to spend up to $600.
“I haven’t really budgeted anything,” Haronitis said. “I don’t care how much money I spent. That was kind of my mindset.”
The megastar’s merchandise costs up to $115 for a sweater, and $30 for tote bags and other accessories.
Rachel Renwick, 28, also waited a couple of hours in line for merchandise, but only spent about $70 after learning that a coveted blue sweater and a crewneck had been snatched up by other eager fans before she got to the shop. She had been prepared to spend much more, she said.
“The two prized items sold out. I think a lot more damage would have been done,” Renwick said, adding she’s still determined to buy a sweater at a later date.
Renwick estimated she’s spent about $500 in total on “all-things Eras Tour,” including her concert outfit and merchandise.
The long queue for Swift merch is just a snapshot of what the city will see in the coming days. It’s estimated that up to 500,000 visitors from outside Toronto will be in town during the concert period.
Tens of thousands more are also expected to attend Taylgate’24, an unofficial Swiftie fan event scheduled to be held at the nearby Metro Toronto Convention Centre.
Meanwhile, Destination Toronto has said it anticipates the economic impact of the Eras Tour could grow to $282 million as the money continues to circulate.
But for fans like Haronitis, the experience in Toronto comes down to the Swiftie community. Knowing that Swift is going to be in the city for six shows and seeing hundreds gather just for merchandise is “awesome,” she said.
Even though Haronitis hasn’t officially bought her ticket yet, she said she’s excited to see the megastar.
“It’s literally incredible.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Via Rail is asking for a judicial review on the reasons why Canadian National Railway Co. has imposed speed restrictions on its new passenger trains.
The Crown corporation says it is seeking the review from the Federal Court after many attempts at dialogue with the company did not yield valid reasoning for the change.
It says the restrictions imposed last month are causing daily delays on Via Rail’s Québec City-Windsor corridor, affecting thousands of passengers and damaging Via Rail’s reputation with travellers.
CN says in a statement that it imposed the restrictions at rail crossings given the industry’s experience and known risks associated with similar trains.
The company says Via has asked the courts to weigh in even though Via has agreed to buy the equipment needed to permanently fix the issues.
Via said in October that no incidents at level crossings have been reported in the two years since it put 16 Siemens Venture trains into operation.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.
