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What every Canadian investor needs to know today

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Canada’s main stock index opened slightly higher Friday helped by industrial stocks. On Wall Street, key indexes were muted in early trading after a new reading on the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation largely matched forecasts.

At 9:31 a.m. ET, the Toronto Stock Exchange’s S&P/TSX composite index was up 14.71 points, or 0.07 per cent, at 21,116.25.

In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 42.45 points, or 0.11 per cent, at the open to 38,006.68. The S&P 500 opened lower by 5.25 points, or 0.11 per cent, at 4,888.91, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 35.64 points, or 0.23 per cent, to 15,474.85 at the opening bell.

Early Friday, the U.S. Commerce Department reported that the personal consumption expenditure index rose by 0.2 per cent on a monthly basis in December. That was inline with analysts expectations. The index was up 2.6 per cent annually. The core PCE, a preferred measure of inflation for the Federal Reserve, was up 0.2 per cent month-over-month. That also matched market forecasts. On an annual basis, it rose by 2.9 per cent. Markets were expecting the annual figure to come in around 3 per cent.

“With inflation heading in the right direction, but still above target, and consumer spending displaying noteworthy resiliency, the central bank has even less urgency for a rate cut and one is unlikely to occur before mid-year,” TD economist Shernette McLeod said in a note.

The Fed’s next interest rate decision is due Jan. 31. Markets are expecting the central bank to hold rates steady. Bets that it would begin cutting rates as early as March have been fading in recent weeks.

On the corporate side, shares of Intel were down more than 11 per cent in early trading after the company forecast first-quarter revenue below market expectations amid uncertain demand for chips used in the traditional server and personal computer markets. The chipmaker expects adjusted first-quarter revenue in the range of US$12.2-billion-US$13.2 billion, compared with analysts’ average estimate of US$14.50-billion, according to LSEG data. Intel forecast first-quarter profit of 13 US cents a share, excluding one-time items. Analysts expected 33 US cents a share, Reuters reported.

In Canada, The Globe’s Tim Kiladze reports a debt refinancing designed to provide BlackBerry Ltd. with some financial flexibility ultimately sent the company’s shares tumbling to their lowest level in 21 years, complicating the new chief executive’s plans to win back investors.

Overseas, the pan-European STOXX 600 was up 1.18 per cent by afternoon. Britain’s FTSE 10 rose 1.56 per cent. Germany’s DAX added 0.25 per cent while France’s CAC 40 jumped 2.29 per cent.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei fell 1.34 per cent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 1.6 per cent.

Commodities

Crude prices were modestly lower but still on track for a second weekly advance in the wake of a better than expected reading on U.S. GDP and continued optimism over stimulus efforts aimed at underpinning China’s economy.

The day range on Brent was US$81.81 to US$82.46 in the early premarket period. The range on West Texas Intermediate was US$76.57 to US$77.30. Both benchmarks were up more than 4 per cent for the week heading into Friday’s session.

New figures released this week showed the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 3.3. per cent in the fourth quarter of the year, far better than the 2-per-cent economists had been forecasting. At the same time, China’s central bank has announced cuts to reserves aimed at supporting economic growth.

“This week’s price action is significant, potentially signalling that the oil price bottom is either within sight or imminent,” Stephen Innes, managing partner with SPI Asset Management, said.

“Suppose this perception gains momentum, especially in anticipation of Fed rate cuts amid easing inflation even with above-trend growth. In that case, more investors may re-enter the futures market, further supporting oil prices.”

In other commodities, gold prices were headed for a second weekly decline.

Spot gold was flat at US$2,020.20 per ounce by early Friday morning. U.S. gold futures were little changed at US$2,020.20. Both are down more than 0.4 per cent so far this week, according to figures from Reuters.

Currencies

The Canadian dollar was higher in early trading while its U.S. counterpart was relatively steady against a group of world currencies.

The day range on the loonie was 74.13 US cents to 74.33 US cents in the early premarket period. The Canadian dollar has lost about 1.6 per cent against the greenback for the year to date.

“The Canadian dollar is nudging a little higher so far on the session but the grounds for gains appear a little flimsy on the face of it, with commodities and stocks trading more mixed than anything,” Shaun Osborne, chief FX strategist with Scotiabank, said.

On world markets, the U.S. dollar index, which weighs the greenback against a basket of currencies, was down 0.12 per cent at 103.45.

The euro was up 0.06 per cent at US$1.0855. Britain’s pound rose 0.12 per cent to US$1.2724.

In bonds, the yield on the U.S. 10-year note was lower at 4.11 per cent.

More company news

American Express forecast a better-than-expected profit for 2024 on hopes that its affluent customers will be resilient with their spending amid elevated interest rates, sending the company’s shares up nearly 3% before the bell on Friday. The New York-based company also reported record revenue for 2023, a year which many analysts feared could bring in a recession and crimp customer spending. AmEx, helped by its affluent customer base, has been able to navigate a tricky financial landscape more smoothly compared to some of its peers.

Economic news

830 am ET: U.S. personal spending and income for December.

830 am ET: U.S. core PCE price index for December.

10 am ET: U.S. pending home sales.

With Reuters and The Canadian Press

 

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Politics likely pushed Air Canada toward deal with ‘unheard of’ gains for pilots

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MONTREAL – Politics, public opinion and salary hikes south of the border helped push Air Canada toward a deal that secures major pay gains for pilots, experts say.

Hammered out over the weekend, the would-be agreement includes a cumulative wage hike of nearly 42 per cent over four years — an enormous bump by historical standards — according to one source who was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter. The previous 10-year contract granted increases of just two per cent annually.

The federal government’s stated unwillingness to step in paved the way for a deal, noted John Gradek, after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made it plain the two sides should hash one out themselves.

“Public opinion basically pressed the federal cabinet, including the prime minister, to keep their hands clear of negotiations and looking at imposing a settlement,” said Gradek, who teaches aviation management at McGill University.

After late-night talks at a hotel near Toronto’s Pearson airport, the country’s biggest airline and the union representing 5,200-plus aviators announced early Sunday morning they had reached a tentative agreement, averting a strike that would have grounded flights and affected some 110,000 passengers daily.

The relative precariousness of the Liberal minority government as well as a push to appear more pro-labour underlay the prime minister’s hands-off approach to the negotiations.

Trudeau said Friday the government would not step in to fix the impasse — unlike during a massive railway work stoppage last month and a strike by WestJet mechanics over the Canada Day long weekend that workers claimed road roughshod over their constitutional right to collective bargaining. Trudeau said the government respects the right to strike and would only intervene if it became apparent no negotiated deal was possible.

“They felt that they really didn’t want to try for a third attempt at intervention and basically said, ‘Let’s let the airline decide how they want to deal with this one,'” said Gradek.

“Air Canada ran out of support as the week wore on, and by the time they got to Friday night, Saturday morning, there was nothing left for them to do but to basically try to get a deal set up and accepted by ALPA (Air Line Pilots Association).”

Trudeau’s government was also unlikely to consider back-to-work legislation after the NDP tore up its agreement to support the Liberal minority in Parliament, Gradek said. Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, whose party has traditionally toed a more pro-business line, also said last week that Tories “stand with the pilots” and swore off “pre-empting” the negotiations.

Air Canada CEO Michael Rousseau had asked Ottawa on Thursday to impose binding arbitration pre-emptively — “before any travel disruption starts” — if talks failed. Backed by business leaders, he’d hoped for an effective repeat of the Conservatives’ move to head off a strike in 2012 by legislating Air Canada pilots and ground crew to stick to their posts before any work stoppage could start.

The request may have fallen flat, however. Gradek said he believes there was less anxiety over the fallout from an airline strike than from the countrywide railway shutdown.

He also speculated that public frustration over thousands of cancelled flights would have flowed toward Air Canada rather than Ottawa, prompting the carrier to concede to a deal yielding “unheard of” gains for employees.

“It really was a total collapse of the Air Canada bargaining position,” he said.

Pilots are slated to vote in the coming weeks on the four-year contract.

Last year, pilots at Delta Air Lines, United Airlines and American Airlines secured agreements that included four-year pay boosts ranging from 34 per cent to 40 per cent, ramping up pressure on other carriers to raise wages.

After more than a year of bargaining, Air Canada put forward an offer in August centred around a 30 per cent wage hike over four years.

But the final deal, should union members approve it, grants a 26 per cent increase in the first year alone, retroactive to September 2023, according to the source. Three wage bumps of four per cent would follow in 2024 through 2026.

Passengers may wind up shouldering some of that financial load, one expert noted.

“At the end of the day, it’s all us consumers who are paying,” said Barry Prentice, who heads the University of Manitoba’s transport institute.

Higher fares may be mitigated by the persistence of budget carrier Flair Airlines and the rapid expansion of Porter Airlines — a growing Air Canada rival — as well as waning demand for leisure trips. Corporate travel also remains below pre-COVID-19 levels.

Air Canada said Sunday the tentative contract “recognizes the contributions and professionalism of Air Canada’s pilot group, while providing a framework for the future growth of the airline.”

The union issued a statement saying that, if ratified, the agreement will generate about $1.9 billion of additional value for Air Canada pilots over the course of the deal.

Meanwhile, labour tension with cabin crew looms on the horizon. Air Canada is poised to kick off negotiations with the union representing more than 10,000 flight attendants this year before the contract expires on March 31.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:AC)

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Federal $500M bailout for Muskrat Falls power delays to keep N.S. rate hikes in check

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HALIFAX – Ottawa is negotiating a $500-million bailout for Nova Scotia’s privately owned electric utility, saying the money will be used to prevent a big spike in electricity rates.

Federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson made the announcement today in Halifax, saying Nova Scotia Power Inc. needs the money to cover higher costs resulting from the delayed delivery of electricity from the Muskrat Falls hydroelectric plant in Labrador.

Wilkinson says that without the money, the subsidiary of Emera Inc. would have had to increase rates by 19 per cent over “the short term.”

Nova Scotia Power CEO Peter Gregg says the deal, once approved by the province’s energy regulator, will keep rate increases limited “to be around the rate of inflation,” as costs are spread over a number of years.

The utility helped pay for construction of an underwater transmission link between Newfoundland and Nova Scotia, but the Muskrat Falls project has not been consistent in delivering electricity over the past five years.

Those delays forced Nova Scotia Power to spend more on generating its own electricity.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

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