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What Makes You Persuasive in a Political Disagreement? – Greater Good Science Center at UC Berkeley

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In the current political climate, it can be hard to find any consensus around hot-button issues, like abortion and climate change. Many of us can be pretty rigid in our thinking and in our communications with others.

Now, a new study illuminates three factors that can lead to better, more persuasive disagreements with others. It turns out that women, liberals, and those with more intellectual humility seem to be more convincing. To lead author Jeffrey Lees of Princeton University, these results should give us hope.

“If we think about democratic discourse of people around the dinner table or in the coffee shop talking about politics, knowing who is entering that space and who might be more effective at communicating and less polarizing could be really helpful,” he says. “Women and people who are actually humble, as well as people who are less identified with their political party, might be better at it.”

Judging persuasiveness

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In the study, researchers recruited 597 Democrats and Republicans to write a persuasive argument on a political topic of their choosing—for example, the economy, health care, or immigration. “Persuaders” were asked to write their argument as if trying to convince either an in-party member, an out-party member, or an “average American.”

To incentivize them to do their best, they were told that if their argument was in the top 25% of the most persuasive, they would receive a financial reward.

The researchers then presented these arguments to over 3,000 people—a mix of Democrats, Republicans, and Independents—with each Democratic and Republican “judge” reading and rating four arguments made by persuaders writing specifically to convince them (some from within, some from outside of their party). Independent judges read four arguments targeting the “average American.”

The judges rated each argument on many factors, including how much effort the person made; how valid, clear, sensible, or reasonable their argument was; and how convincing it might be to others. They also reported how intellectually humble the persuader appeared to be, by rating things like how much the writer seemed to recognize the value in differing opinions, accept they may be wrong, and be willing to change their opinion in light of new evidence.

This resulted in 54,686 judgments across 18,236 persuader-judge pairings. In each case, the judge was aware of the party affiliation of the persuader, but was given no other information, such as the age or gender of the persuader. By analyzing the data, the researchers found some provocative patterns.

Women and liberals make better arguers

First, women made more persuasive arguments than men across the board, regardless of their political party or to whom they were speaking. This was true after controlling for several other factors, including the length of their argument, how humble they appeared to be, the topic they chose, and what kind of language they used.

Though women did tend to write lengthier arguments and use less dominant language, this didn’t completely explain why women still prevailed as the most convincing arguers.

“We were absolutely surprised to find this effect,” says Lees. “We wanted judges to focus on the content of the argument rather than trying to imagine something about the person’s identity, and they preferred the women’s arguments.”

Lees doesn’t know for sure what’s going on. He hypothesizes that women may just be more strategic than men when it comes to arguing, perhaps better able to anticipate another person’s potential reaction or to use different emotional tones with different audiences.

“They may just be putting more thought into what they could do to persuade another person than men might,” he says.

Though he can’t explain it, he does believe his finding is not a fluke. The nature of the experiment—done in a very naturalistic way, with people having a lot of discretion about what they write about, and with lots of judges on both sides of the political aisle—suggests his conclusion about women being more persuasive is valid.

“I’m quite confident this gender effect is real,” he says. However, in the real world, women face gender discrimination (unlike in the experiment, where their gender wasn’t revealed), which means in an everyday context, biases against them could impact how others receive their message, says Lees.

“The [scientific] literature tends to suggest that women face a lot of gender biases and are penalized for that, especially in these sorts of domains that are perceived as [involving rational thought],” he says.

Anyone can try to be humble

They also found that liberals were more persuasive than conservatives, overall—and so were those who were more intellectually humble. The two factors weren’t related: Liberals probably do not have more intellectual humility than conservatives, according to both this study and others.

Lees thinks it makes sense that an intellectually humble argument would be more persuasive, because it involves an ability to be self-reflective and aware of one’s own biases, which could lead to more perspective taking and openness. Prior research suggests intellectual humility is good for decreasing political polarization.

“When people argue from a place of humility and admit that they’re not 100% certain and acknowledge other possible explanations, the judges respond to that in kind,” says Lees. “Black-and-white language is less persuasive in an argument.”

Since it’s not so easy to just change political party or gender, for most people, the best path to persuasiveness, suggests this study, is to cultivate intellectual humility. How can you do that? Start by reading Greater Good’s one-page guide to becoming more intellectually humble.

These results give Lees hope, particularly since his past research looked at how misperceptions around political viewpoints can increase polarization. Not only does it suggest that some people are better able to persuade, but, he notes, the “judges” in his experiment put so much effort into their task and had high levels of agreement around what made for a convincing argument. In other words, they could treat opposing arguments fairly. To Lees, knowing who can make good, persuasive arguments is a step forward.

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Gould calls Poilievre a ‘fraudster’ over his carbon price warning

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OTTAWA – Liberal House leader Karina Gould lambasted Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre as a “fraudster” this morning after he said the federal carbon price is going to cause a “nuclear winter.”

Gould was speaking just before the House of Commons is set to reopen following the summer break.

“What I heard yesterday from Mr. Poilievre was so over the top, so irresponsible, so immature, and something that only a fraudster would do,” she said from Parliament Hill.

On Sunday Poilievre said increasing the carbon price will cause a “nuclear winter,” painting a dystopian picture of people starving and freezing because they can’t afford food or heat due the carbon price.

He said the Liberals’ obsession with carbon pricing is “an existential threat to our economy and our way of life.”

The carbon price currently adds about 17.6 cents to every litre of gasoline, but that cost is offset by carbon rebates mailed to Canadians every three months. The Parliamentary Budget Office provided analysis that showed eight in 10 households receive more from the rebates than they pay in carbon pricing, though the office also warned that long-term economic effects could harm jobs and wage growth.

Gould accused Poilievre of ignoring the rebates, and refusing to tell Canadians how he would make life more affordable while battling climate change. The Liberals have also accused the Conservatives of dismissing the expertise of more than 200 economists who wrote a letter earlier this year describing the carbon price as the least expensive, most efficient way to lower emissions.

Poilievre is pushing for the other opposition parties to vote the government down and trigger what he calls a “carbon tax election.”

The recent decision by the NDP to break its political pact with the government makes an early election more likely, but there does not seem to be an interest from either the Bloc Québécois or the NDP to have it happen immediately.

Poilievre intends to bring a non-confidence motion against the government as early as this week but would likely need both the Bloc and NDP to support it.

Gould said she has no “crystal ball” over when or how often Poilievre might try to bring down the government

“I know that the end of the supply and confidence agreement makes things a bit different, but really all it does is returns us to a normal minority parliament,” she said. “And that means that we will work case-by-case, legislation-by-legislation with whichever party wants to work with us. I have already been in touch with all of the House leaders in the opposition parties and my job now is to make Parliament work for Canadians.”

She also insisted the government has listened to the concerns raised by Canadians, and received the message when the Liberals lost a Toronto byelection in June in seat the party had held since 1997.

“We certainly got the message from Toronto-St. Paul’s and have spent the summer reflecting on what that means and are coming back to Parliament, I think, very clearly focused on ensuring that Canadians are at the centre of everything that we do moving forward,” she said.

The Liberals are bracing, however, for the possibility of another blow Monday night, in a tight race to hold a Montreal seat in a byelection there. Voters in LaSalle—Émard—Verdun are casting ballots today to replace former justice minister David Lametti, who was removed from cabinet in 2023 and resigned as an MP in January.

The Conservatives and NDP are also in a tight race in Elmwood-Transcona, a Winnipeg seat that has mostly been held by the NDP over the last several decades.

There are several key bills making their way through the legislative process, including the online harms act and the NDP-endorsed pharmacare bill, which is currently in the Senate.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Voters head to the polls for byelections in Montreal and Winnipeg

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OTTAWA – Canadians in two federal ridings are choosing their next member of Parliament today, and political parties are closely watching the results.

Winnipeg’s Elmwood —Transcona seat has been vacant since the NDP’s Daniel Blaikie left federal politics.

The New Democrats are hoping to hold onto the riding and polls suggest the Conservatives are in the running.

The Montreal seat of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun opened up when former justice minister David Lametti left politics.

Polls suggest the race is tight between the Liberal candidate and the Bloc Québécois, but the NDP is also hopeful it can win.

The Conservatives took over a Liberal stronghold seat in another byelection in Toronto earlier this summer, a loss that sent shock waves through the governing party and intensified calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to step down as leader.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Next phase of federal foreign interference inquiry to begin today in Ottawa

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OTTAWA – The latest phase of a federal inquiry into foreign interference is set to kick off today with remarks from commissioner Marie-Josée Hogue.

Several weeks of public hearings will focus on the capacity of federal agencies to detect, deter and counter foreign interference.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and key government officials took part in hearings earlier this year as the inquiry explored allegations that Beijing tried to meddle in the 2019 and 2021 federal elections.

Hogue’s interim report, released in early May, said Beijing’s actions did not affect the overall results of the two general elections.

The report said while outcomes in a small number of ridings may have been affected by interference, this cannot be said with certainty.

Trudeau, members of his inner circle and senior security officials are slated to return to the inquiry in coming weeks.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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