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What next for Afghanistan's economy? – BBC News

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Taliban fighters in Kabul

EPA

Afghanistan’s economy is “shaped by fragility and aid dependence”.

That is the troubling overview set out by the World Bank several months before the Taliban takeover.

Economic prospects look even more precarious now, as future financial assistance is under a cloud of uncertainty.

Afghanistan does have substantial mineral resources, but the political situation has impeded their exploitation.

The aid dependency is striking. In 2019, World Bank figures show development aid was equivalent to 22% of gross national income (which is not the same as GDP, but close to it).

That is a high figure, but it is down a long way from the 49% the World Bank reported 10 years earlier.

Now those aid flows are under a cloud of profound uncertainty. German Foreign Minister Heike Maas told the broadcaster ZDF last week: “We will not give another cent if the Taliban takes over the country and introduces Sharia law.”

Other aid donors are sure to be watching developments closely.

Corruption woes

The fragility the World Bank refers to is illustrated by the very high levels of spending on security before the Taliban takeover: 29% of GDP, compared with an average of 3% for low-income countries.

Security and severe problems with corruption are behind another persistent problem in Afghanistan: very weak foreign business investment.

According to United Nations data, there were no announcements in the last two years of new “greenfield” investments, which involve a foreign business setting up an operation from scratch. Since 2014, there have been a total of four.

To take two other countries from the South Asia region, both with somewhat smaller populations, Nepal has managed 10 times as many and Sri Lanka 50 times more over the same period.

The World Bank describes Afghanistan’s private sector as narrow. Employment is concentrated in low-productivity agriculture: 60% of households get some income from farming.

The country also has a large illicit economy. There is illegal mining and, of course, opium production and related activities such as smuggling. The drugs trade has been an important source of revenue for the Taliban.

Mineral wealth

All that said, the Afghan economy has grown since the US invasion in 2001.

The figures for Afghanistan are not reliable, but what they show, according to the World Bank, is average annual growth of more than 9% in the 10 years from 2003.

After that, it slowed (which may well reflect the lower levels of aid) to an average rate of 2.5% between 2015 and 2020.

Opium poppies in an Afghan field

EPA

The country does have significant natural resources, which would, in the context of better security and less corruption, be attractive to international business.

There are several types of mineral available in substantial quantities, including copper, cobalt, coal and iron ore. There is also oil and gas and precious stones.

One with particularly striking potential is lithium, a metal that is used in batteries for mobile devices and electric cars. The latter application is going to be especially important as the motor industry makes the transition to zero-carbon forms of transport.

Back in 2010, a top US general told the New York Times that Afghanistan’s mineral potential was “stunning” – with “a lot of ifs, of course”.

The paper also reported that an internal US Defence Department memo had said the country could become “the Saudi Arabia of lithium”.

Yet this undoubted potential is nowhere near being exploited – and the Afghan people have seen very little, if any, benefit from it.

Foreign powers

There have been many reports that China is keen to be involved. It seems to have better relations with the Taliban than Western powers do, so may have an advantage if the new regime does hold on to power.

However, Chinese firms did win contracts to develop operations in copper and oil. But little happened.

It is to be expected that China would be interested. The opportunities appear to be very substantial and the two countries do share a short border.

But any Chinese agency – official or a business – would want to be confident of succeeding. They will be reluctant to commit unless they feel the security and corruption problems will be well enough contained to enable them to extract worthwhile quantities of these industrial commodities.

A key question for any hard-nosed potential investors – from China or anywhere else – will be whether the Taliban is likely to be any more able than the previous Afghan government to create the kind of environment they need.

In the immediate future, there is also a great deal of uncertainty about financial stability. Crowds of people have been trying to withdraw their money from the banks.

The Pakistan-based Afghan Islamic Press reported a Taliban spokesman as offering assurances to bank owners, money changers, traders and shopkeepers that their lives and property would be protected.

That there are even questions about the physical safety of financial operators is shocking. They do need to be confident if Afghanistan’s financial system is to function. But it also needs customers to feel their money is safe. That won’t happen quickly.

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Economy

Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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