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What the Israel-Hamas conflict could mean for inflation, oil prices

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With Israeli airstrikes marking the fifth day of escalating conflict between Israel and Hamas on Wednesday, experts are warning of rising oil prices and inflationary pressure as a potential consequence of the ongoing hostilities.

On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund’s chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said it’s “too early” to assess the impact on global economic growth from the days-old conflict.

But he said the IMF was “monitoring the situation closely” and noted the rise in oil prices when the conflict first began.

“We’ve seen that in previous crises and previous conflicts. And of course, this reflects the potential risk that there could be disruption either in production or transport of oil in the region,” he said.

Meanwhile, World Bank President Ajay Banga said Tuesday that the Israel-Hamas conflict is an unnecessary global economic shock that will make it harder for central banks to achieve soft landings — a slowdown that avoids a recession — in many economies if it spreads.

“It’s a humanitarian tragedy and it’s an economic shock we don’t need,” Banga told Reuters on the sidelines of the World Bank International Monetary Fund annual meetings in Morocco.

Central banks were “beginning to feel a little more confident that there was an opportunity for a soft landing, and this kind of just makes it harder,” Banga said.

Rory Johnston, the founder of online oil research firm Commodity Context, noted the impact of the conflict on oil prices was immediate.

“This (conflict) is bullish for oil prices,” he told Global News Wednesday. “The immediate short-term reaction, as we saw, was about a $3 or $4 increase in the price of global crude oil coming out of the weekend.”

Click to play video: 'Israel-Hamas conflict: Joly confirms 2 Canadian deaths, 1 ‘presumed’'

Israel-Hamas conflict: Joly confirms 2 Canadian deaths, 1 ‘presumed’

Though the area doesn’t produce much oil, the worry was that the violence could spill into the politics around the crude market and hurt the flow of petroleum.

After initial shocks due to the conflict, however, oil prices have pulled back in recent days, helping to take some heat off inflation and support Wall Street.

A barrel of U.S. crude oil dropped two per cent to US$84.27. Brent crude, the international standard, fell 1.4 per cent to US$86.42 per barrel in early afternoon trading Wednesday.

Prices settled slightly lower on Tuesday after Saudi Arabia said it was working with regional and international partners to prevent an escalation, and reaffirmed its efforts to stabilize oil markets.

Where oil prices could go from here

Johnston said that while the short-term, knee-jerk reaction of the markets to the crisis was to be expected, the medium-term trends depend on how some of the other players in this conflict react.

In particular, he said observers should look at to what degree Iran, which he said has recently ramped up its oil exports, gets involved in the conflict.

“One of the major trends that we’ve observed so far this year has been a dramatic increase, about 500,000 to 700,000 barrels a day, in Iranian production and export of crude oil. And this is notable because there has not been an official change in the stance of Washington sanctions against Iran,” he said.

If Iran plays a larger role in the ongoing conflict, Johnston said that Tehran stands the risk of the United States tightening sanctions, which could affect global oil supply.

Click to play video: 'Israel-Gaza conflict: Canadian evacuation flights arriving in Tel Aviv by end of week: Joly'

Israel-Gaza conflict: Canadian evacuation flights arriving in Tel Aviv by end of week: Joly

Johnston said the conflict could also jeopardize a potential deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel to normalize relations between the two states. 

If the Israeli bombardment of Gaza continues at the same pace, Johnston said Saudi Arabia could see itself as part of a coalition of Arab states that exerts some kind of pressure on Israel to end its assault on Gaza.

“The more the politics deteriorate there, the harder it’s going to be for Saudi Arabia to kind of continue supporting this deal,” he said.

Experts have also warned that the uncertainty around oil prices could lead to inflationary pressures and rising food prices, which have already been under stress due to the war in Ukraine and Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea grain agreement.

“Last year, those pre-existing inflationary concerns and supply chain bottlenecks were supercharged by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent energy shock and food shock. I think that this feeds into that exact same concern,” Johnston said.

“We are already in a challenging political moment, both in terms of growth and inflationary pressures, and now the geopolitical crises continue to spiral.”

— with files from Reuters and Associated Press

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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