Provincial cabinet ministers say Alberta has its swagger back, pointing to growing employment rates and corporate investment in the province.
But while the United Conservative Party (UCP) government tries to direct attention to the economy — with Premier Jason Kenney mentioning new private sector projects or investments at every opportunity — political scientists say much of Albertans’ interest in provincial politics in 2022 will be focused on leadership and health-care management.
“We’re seeing some of the best economic news of my generation in this province,” government House leader Jason Nixon told reporters last month.
“And I strongly believe this party will be judged in 2023 at the polls based on what happens with the economy and the management of fiscal affairs inside this province.”
Not so fast, say political pundits.
The issues they’re watching in 2022 are impacts of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic and the government’s often divisive responses. Alberta’s health-care system is battered, with high demand and burned-out workers leading to intermittent rural hospital closures and delayed ambulances.
Alberta Premier Jason Kenny (left) and NDP Leader Rachel Notley in composite photo. Political scientists say much of the public’s interest in provincial politics this year will be on leadership and management of health care. (Manuel Carrillos/CBC)
Political observers are also eyeing the looming shadow of the elephant in the room — challenges to Kenney’s leadership from within his own party, and the UCP’s dismal public polling numbers.
Nixon last month dismissed discontent with Kenney’s leadership as “primarily the focus of Twitter and those talking heads within our world.”
Political scientists say Kenney and his inner circle ignore it at their peril.
They say Kenney and his supporters must walk the tightrope of trying to win back disaffected party members while positioning themselves as palatable to voters in the next provincial election, scheduled for May 2023.
‘Between a rock and a hard place’
“[Kenney is] between a rock and a hard place,” said Brendan Boyd, a professor of anthropology, economics and political science at Edmonton’s MacEwan University.
“He has to be able to keep his party together and win the leadership review, but also be able to pivot from that and win the general election.”
That leadership review is scheduled to take place in Red Deer on April 9 — a later date than some within the party had pushed for.
Lori Williams, an associate professor of policy studies at Calgary’s Mount Royal University, said the government’s apparent abandonment of its “grassroots guarantee” to take policy direction from party members — instead imposing top-down decisions — has disenfranchised many members.
Conflict over pandemic restrictions
Supporters who value personal freedoms have also been incensed by public health restrictions to slow the spread of the virus causing COVID-19. Their beliefs are deeply held, Williams said, and it will not be easy to win back their votes or donations.
Another elephant in the room is the ongoing RCMP investigation into alleged voting and financial irregularities in the 2017 UCP leadership contest. Constituency associations that recently pushed for an early review of Kenney’s leadership wanted an independent auditor to oversee the process. The party refused.
A potential high-profile leadership challenger has also re-entered the chat. Former Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean, who lost the 2017 leadership challenge to Kenney, is back in politics. He won the UCP’s nomination contest in the Fort McMurray-Lac La Biche riding, where a byelection is set to be called by mid-February.
Jean has been blunt — he’s here to take Kenney’s job.
Former Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean has re-entered political life with the goal of ousting United Conservative Party leader Jason Kenney. (CBC)
While Kenney trails Rachel Notley’s NDP in public opinion polls and fundraising efforts, public policy professor Boyd said there would be a “good contest” in a Jean-Notley face off in 2023.
Both have strong governance and policy visions for the province, he said. “I’d like to see those two visions be proposed and have Albertans choose between them.”
Kenney declined a request for a year-end interview with CBC News. He did tell Radio-Canada he’s confident any leadership review process will be above board.
“I know that some people who weren’t successful have had sour grapes,” Kenney said of the 2017 UCP leadership contest. “But I won, I think, 35,000 votes directly from members there. I won that mandate about two-to-one over the next competitor.
“There was no question about the strength of that democratic mandate.”
The court of public opinion
After riding high following the 2019 provincial election, polls suggest public support for Kenney and his party have gradually eroded. The decline accelerated with the public’s dissatisfaction at how the government has managed the COVID-19 pandemic.
Public anger swells in Alberta from handling of the pandemic
4 months ago
Duration 4:52
Greg Lyle, founder of the Innovative Research Group, breaks down provincial polling of where Albertans stand on Premier Jason Kenney and how the UCP have handled COVID-19. 4:52
Although Kenney’s cunning political ground game positions him well to survive a leadership challenge, Williams said the government will have to pivot substantially to charm Alberta voters, “and I haven’t seen any evidence of that so far.”
She said the party’s politicians’ and staffers’ tendency to name-call and attack anyone who disagrees with them is off-putting to electors.
In particular, criticizing nurses, doctors, teachers, and other public sector workers who put their safety at risk on the front lines during the pandemic is “tone deaf” and out of sync with public perception, she said.
A system limping along
Opposition leader Rachel Notley said she thinks Alberta’s battered health-care system will dominate public discourse in 2022. She points to problems like delayed ambulance response times and staff shortages causing periodic closures of rural emergency rooms.
She said her election elevator pitch to voters will start with a promise to listen to health-care workers and bolster the system.
Her challenge for the coming year is to pitch the NDP’s competing vision to Albertans — one Notley says balances economic growth with more aggressive economic diversification beyond oil and gas.
A future NDP government would, once again, revamp the new draft school curriculum that has served as a political football for the last five years. It would “work toward” restoring funding for post-secondary institutions whose public funding has been slashed by the UCP, Notley said.
“I think that the most important part to our economic and social recovery is not what’s underneath the ground, it’s what’s walking on top of it,” she said. “And it comes down to our ability to continue our past of bringing people to this province.
“And right now we’re doing the exact opposite.”
Still ground to make up in economic recovery
The government’s post-secondary approach puts emphasis on expanding certified trades and transitioning schools to generate more of their own operating revenue.
Although the government boasts of record economic growth forecast for the coming year, economists say the province has enormous ground to make up from the wallop in 2020. Albertans won’t see those rosy projections as credible unless they feel it in their own lives, Williams said.
“I think this government needs to be very cautious about making promises or predicting success prematurely,” Williams said.
What else to watch for
As the government moves to approve and implement its platform promises from the last election, here are some other changes to watch for in 2022:
A contentious new math, English language arts and phys ed and wellness curriculum is coming to all K-6 classrooms in the province in the fall.
The government will introduce a provincial budget in February. Finance Minister Travis Toews has said he will present a new plan to balance the province’s books.
A committee struck to consult with Albertans about a controversial move to lift environmental protections preventing coal mining in the Rockies has submitted two reports to Energy Minister Sonya Savage. Savage will review the findings and recommendations before releasing them to the public.
New labour laws to take effect by August will require unions to ask members’ permission to spend their dues on political activities. Several labour groups have pledged to thwart or challenge the law.
The government, which has pledged to reduce the cost of public services, will continue negotiations with public sector workers, including teachers, nurses, and doctors.
The government could enact the recall legislation passed by the legislature in 2021. It would allow voters to petition to recall MLAs, municipal councillors and school trustees.
The government has promised to consult with Albertans about whether to create a provincial police force.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia Premier Tim Houston says it’s “disgraceful and demeaning” that a Halifax-area school would request that service members not wear military uniforms to its Remembrance Day ceremony.
Houston’s comments were part of a chorus of criticism levelled at the school — Sackville Heights Elementary — whose administration decided to back away from the plan after the outcry.
A November newsletter from the school in Middle Sackville, N.S., invited Armed Forces members to attend its ceremony but asked that all attendees arrive in civilian attire to “maintain a welcoming environment for all.”
Houston, who is currently running for re-election, accused the school’s leaders of “disgracing themselves while demeaning the people who protect our country” in a post on the social media platform X Thursday night.
“If the people behind this decision had a shred of the courage that our veterans have, this cowardly and insulting idea would have been rejected immediately,” Houston’s post read. There were also several calls for resignations within the school’s administration attached to Houston’s post.
In an email to families Thursday night, the school’s principal, Rachael Webster, apologized and welcomed military family members to attend “in the attire that makes them most comfortable.”
“I recognize this request has caused harm and I am deeply sorry,” Webster’s email read, adding later that the school has the “utmost respect for what the uniform represents.”
Webster said the initial request was out of concern for some students who come from countries experiencing conflict and who she said expressed discomfort with images of war, including military uniforms.
Her email said any students who have concerns about seeing Armed Forces members in uniform can be accommodated in a way that makes them feel safe, but she provided no further details in the message.
Webster did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
At a news conference Friday, Houston said he’s glad the initial request was reversed but said he is still concerned.
“I can’t actually fathom how a decision like that was made,” Houston told reporters Friday, adding that he grew up moving between military bases around the country while his father was in the Armed Forces.
“My story of growing up in a military family is not unique in our province. The tradition of service is something so many of us share,” he said.
“Saying ‘lest we forget’ is a solemn promise to the fallen. It’s our commitment to those that continue to serve and our commitment that we will pass on our respects to the next generation.”
Liberal Leader Zach Churchill also said he’s happy with the school’s decision to allow uniformed Armed Forces members to attend the ceremony, but he said he didn’t think it was fair to question the intentions of those behind the original decision.
“We need to have them (uniforms) on display at Remembrance Day,” he said. “Not only are we celebrating (veterans) … we’re also commemorating our dead who gave the greatest sacrifice for our country and for the freedoms we have.”
NDP Leader Claudia Chender said that while Remembrance Day is an important occasion to honour veterans and current service members’ sacrifices, she said she hopes Houston wasn’t taking advantage of the decision to “play politics with this solemn occasion for his own political gain.”
“I hope Tim Houston reached out to the principal of the school before making a public statement,” she said in a statement.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
REGINA – Saskatchewan Opposition NDP Leader Carla Beck says she wants to prove to residents her party is the government in waiting as she heads into the incoming legislative session.
Beck held her first caucus meeting with 27 members, nearly double than what she had before the Oct. 28 election but short of the 31 required to form a majority in the 61-seat legislature.
She says her priorities will be health care and cost-of-living issues.
Beck says people need affordability help right now and will press Premier Scott Moe’s Saskatchewan Party government to cut the gas tax and the provincial sales tax on children’s clothing and some grocery items.
Beck’s NDP is Saskatchewan’s largest Opposition in nearly two decades after sweeping Regina and winning all but one seat in Saskatoon.
The Saskatchewan Party won 34 seats, retaining its hold on all of the rural ridings and smaller cities.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
HALIFAX – Nova Scotia‘s growing population was the subject of debate on Day 12 of the provincial election campaign, with Liberal Leader Zach Churchill arguing immigration levels must be reduced until the province can provide enough housing and health-care services.
Churchill said Thursday a plan by the incumbent Progressive Conservatives to double the province’s population to two million people by the year 2060 is unrealistic and unsustainable.
“That’s a big leap and it’s making life harder for people who live here, (including ) young people looking for a place to live and seniors looking to downsize,” he told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
Anticipating that his call for less immigration might provoke protests from the immigrant community, Churchill was careful to note that he is among the third generation of a family that moved to Nova Scotia from Lebanon.
“I know the value of immigration, the importance of it to our province. We have been built on the backs of an immigrant population. But we just need to do it in a responsible way.”
The Liberal leader said Tim Houston’s Tories, who are seeking a second term in office, have made a mistake by exceeding immigration targets set by the province’s Department of Labour and Immigration. Churchill said a Liberal government would abide by the department’s targets.
In the most recent fiscal year, the government welcomed almost 12,000 immigrants through its nominee program, exceeding the department’s limit by more than 4,000, he said. The numbers aren’t huge, but the increase won’t help ease the province’s shortages in housing and doctors, and the increased strain on its infrastructure, including roads, schools and cellphone networks, Churchill said.
“(The Immigration Department) has done the hard work on this,” he said. “They know where the labour gaps are, and they know what growth is sustainable.”
In response, Houston said his commitment to double the population was a “stretch goal.” And he said the province had long struggled with a declining population before that trend was recently reversed.
“The only immigration that can come into this province at this time is if they are a skilled trade worker or a health-care worker,” Houston said. “The population has grown by two per cent a year, actually quite similar growth to what we experienced under the Liberal government before us.”
Still, Houston said he’s heard Nova Scotians’ concerns about population growth, and he then pivoted to criticize Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for trying to send 6,000 asylum seekers to Nova Scotia, an assertion the federal government has denied.
Churchill said Houston’s claim about asylum seekers was shameful.
“It’s smoke and mirrors,” the Liberal leader said. “He is overshooting his own department’s numbers for sustainable population growth and yet he is trying to blame this on asylum seekers … who aren’t even here.”
In September, federal Immigration Minister Marc Miller said there is no plan to send any asylum seekers to the province without compensation or the consent of the premier. He said the 6,000 number was an “aspirational” figure based on models that reflect each province’s population.
In Halifax, NDP Leader Claudia Chender said it’s clear Nova Scotia needs more doctors, nurses and skilled trades people.
“Immigration has been and always will be a part of the Nova Scotia story, but we need to build as we grow,” Chender said. “This is why we have been pushing the Houston government to build more affordable housing.”
Chender was in a Halifax cafe on Thursday when she promised her party would remove the province’s portion of the harmonized sales tax from all grocery, cellphone and internet bills if elected to govern on Nov. 26. The tax would also be removed from the sale and installation of heat pumps.
“Our focus is on helping people to afford their lives,” Chender told reporters. “We know there are certain things that you can’t live without: food, internet and a phone …. So we know this will have the single biggest impact.”
The party estimates the measure would save the average Nova Scotia family about $1,300 a year.
“That’s a lot more than a one or two per cent HST cut,” Chender said, referring to the Progressive Conservative pledge to reduce the tax by one percentage point and the Liberal promise to trim it by two percentage points.
Elsewhere on the campaign trail, Houston announced that a Progressive Conservative government would make parking free at all Nova Scotia hospitals and health-care centres. The promise was also made by the Liberals in their election platform released Monday.
“Free parking may not seem like a big deal to some, but … the parking, especially for people working at the facilities, can add up to hundreds of dollars,” the premier told a news conference at his campaign headquarters in Halifax.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
