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What would a U.S. ban on Russian oil mean for the world?

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 The possibility that the United States might ban Russian oil imports has triggered a surge in Brent crude to almost $140 a barrel, its highest level since 2008.

Russia is the world’s top exporter of crude and oil products combined, at around 7 million barrels per day (bpd ) or 7% of global supply. Such a ban would be unprecedented, turbocharging already sky-high prices and risking inflationary shock.

Here are some of the likely consequences of a ban:

RECORD PRICES

Western governments have not directly sanctioned Russia’s energy sector but some customers are already shunning its oil to avoid becoming entangled in legal troubles later.

JP Morgan predicts oil could hit a record $185 a barrel by the end of 2022 if disruption to Russian exports lasts that long, although along with most analysts polled by Reuters the bank expects a yearly average price below $100.

The last time oil prices were above $100 was in 2014 and levels reached on Monday were not far shy of a peak of more than $147 hit in July 2008. That is a steep climb from two years ago, when a coronavirus-driven demand slump saw a barrel of West Texas crude at below $0 as sellers had to pay to get rid of it.

“A prolonged war which causes widespread disruption to commodity supplies could see Brent moving above the $150 a barrel mark,” Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS, said.

INFLATIONARY SHOCK

With natural gas prices hitting all-time highs, soaring energy costs are expected to push inflation above 7% on both sides of the Atlantic in the coming months and eat deep into households’ purchasing power.

As a rule of thumb, every 10% rise in the oil price in euro terms increases euro zone inflation by 0.1 to 0.2 percentage point. Since Jan 1, Brent crude is up around 80% in euros. In the U.S., every $10 per barrel rise in oil prices increases inflation by 0.2 percentage point.

In addition to being a major supplier of oil and gas, Russia is also the world’s largest grains and fertilisers exporter and a top producer of palladium, nickel, coal and steel. The bid to exclude its economy from the trading system will hit a wide range of industries and add to global food security fears.

HIT TO GROWTH

A ban on Russian oil would further slow the nascent global recovery from the coronavirus pandemic.

Preliminary calculations by the European Central Bank (ECB) suggest that war could cut euro zone growth by 0.3 to 0.4 percentage points this year in a baseline scenario and 1 percentage point in case of a severe shock.

In the coming months, there is a high risk of stagflation, or little to minimal growth coupled with high inflation. However, further, euro zone growth is likely to remain robust, even if commodity prices prove a drag.

In the U.S., the Fed estimates that every $10 per barrel rise in oil prices cuts growth by 0.1 percentage point, though private forecasters see a more muted impact.

In Russia, the damage is likely to be large and immediate. JPMorgan estimates that its economy will contract by 12.5% from peak to trough.

CENTRAL BANK IMPACT

For the U.S. Federal Reserve, the inflationary impact has already proved too great and its Chair Jerome Powell has said that interest rates need to rise this month, piling pressure on borrowers.

For the ECB, the urgency of policy action is less acute as the labour market still enjoys spare capacity and there is little home-grown inflation.

“No one can seriously expect the ECB to start normalising monetary policy at such a moment of high uncertainty,” ING economist Carsten Brzeski said.

SUBSTITUTES?

With fossil fuel demand rebounding from the pandemic but supply around the world still tight, policymakers will be under pressure to ramp up supply despite pledges to back green energy.

“There will be a dial back on green initiatives in the short term in an attempt to reverse the contraction we’ve seen in fossil fuel supplies,” Susannah Streeter, senior investment and markets analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said.

Talks to unleash Iran from international sanctions are in advanced stages and high oil prices are set to galvanize investment in U.S. shale, but supply may not be set to come online soon enough to replace Russian output.

“The potential supply impacts are so large that there isn’t a quick way to substitute in the medium term, meaning the only mitigant will be price inflation of these inputs and the products that depend on them,” said Alex Collins, senior corporate analyst at BlueBay Asset Management.

THE LONG VIEW

The Russian-Western impasse could invigorate Moscow’s relationship with Beijing but the energy infrastructure between the two countries is scant.

“Although Russia’s Pivot to the East has accelerated gas cooperation with China via gas infrastructure … all these developments are still in their infancy compared to the mature markets in Europe,” said Kaho Yu, principal Asia analyst at risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.

Renewables could get a boost in the medium- to long-run as countries seek to wean themselves off Russian energy.

“We should take the subsidies we now devote to natural gas, coal, and petroleum and put them into renewable energy generation, electric mobility and EV charging infrastructure, heat pumps, building efficiency upgrades,” said Wolfgang Ketter, professor at the Rotterdam School of Management at Erasmus University in the Netherlands.

“Anything that will lead to long term energy security by reducing fossil fuel dependency.”

 

(Additional reporting by Bozorgmehr Sharafedin; Editing by Alexander Smith)

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Bad traffic, changed plans: Toronto braces for uncertainty of its Taylor Swift Era

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TORONTO – Will Taylor Swift bring chaos or do we all need to calm down?

It’s a question many Torontonians are asking this week as the city braces for the arrival of Swifties, the massive fan base of one of the world’s biggest pop stars.

Hundreds of thousands are expected to descend on the downtown core for the singer’s six concerts which kick off Thursday at the Rogers Centre and run until Nov. 23.

And while their arrival will be a boon to tourism dollars — the city estimates more than $282 million in economic impact — some worry it could worsen Toronto’s gridlock by clogging streets that already come to a standstill during rush hour.

Swift’s shows are set to collide with sports events at the nearby Scotiabank Arena, including a Raptors game on Friday and a Leafs game on Saturday.

Some residents and local businesses have already adjusted their plans to avoid the area and its planned road closures.

Aahil Dayani says he and some friends intended to throw a birthday bash for one of their pals until they realized it would overlap with the concerts.

“Something as simple as getting together and having dinner is now thrown out the window,” he said.

Dayani says the group rescheduled the gathering for after Swift leaves town. In the meantime, he plans to hunker down at his Toronto residence.

“Her coming into town has kind of changed up my social life,” he added.

“We’re pretty much just not doing anything.”

Max Sinclair, chief executive and founder of A.I. technology firm Ecomtent, suggested his employees avoid the company’s downtown offices on concert days, saying he doesn’t see the point in forcing people to endure potential traffic jams.

“It’s going to be less productive for us, and it’s going to be just a pain for everyone, so it’s easier to avoid it,” Sinclair said.

“We’re a hybrid company, so we can be flexible. It just makes sense.”

Swift’s concerts are the latest pop culture moment to draw attention to Toronto’s notoriously disastrous daily commute.

In June, One Direction singer Niall Horan uploaded a social media video of himself walking through traffic to reach the venue for his concert.

“Traffic’s too bad in Toronto, so we’re walking to the venue,” he wrote in the post.

Toronto Transit Commission spokesperson Stuart Green says the public agency has been working for more than a year on plans to ease the pressure of so many Swifties in one confined area.

“We are preparing for something that would be akin to maybe the Beatles coming in the ‘60s,” he said.

Dozens of buses and streetcars have been added to transit routes around the stadium, and the TTC has consulted the city on potential emergency scenarios.

Green will be part of a command centre operated by the City of Toronto and staffed by Toronto police leaders, emergency services and others who have handled massive gatherings including the Raptors’ NBA championship parade in 2019.

“There may be some who will say we’re over-preparing, and that’s fair,” Green said.

“But we know based on what’s happened in other places, better to be over-prepared than under-prepared.”

Metrolinx, the agency for Ontario’s GO Transit system, has also added extra trips and extended hours in some regions to accommodate fans looking to travel home.

A day before Swift’s first performance, the city began clearing out tents belonging to homeless people near the venue. The city said two people were offered space in a shelter.

“As the area around Rogers Centre is expected to receive a high volume of foot traffic in the coming days, this area has been prioritized for outreach work to ensure the safety of individuals in encampments, other residents, businesses and visitors — as is standard for large-scale events,” city spokesperson Russell Baker said in a statement.

Homeless advocate Diana Chan McNally questioned whether money and optics were behind the measure.

“People (in the area) are already in close proximity to concerts, sports games, and other events that generate massive amounts of traffic — that’s nothing new,” she said in a statement.

“If people were offered and willingly accepted a shelter space, free of coercion, I support that fully — that’s how it should happen.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.



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‘It’s literally incredible’: Swifties line up for merch ahead of Toronto concerts

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TORONTO – Hundreds of Taylor Swift fans lined up outside the gates of Toronto’s Rogers Centre Wednesday, with hopes of snagging some of the pop star’s merchandise on the eve of the first of her six sold-out shows in the city.

Swift is slated to perform at the venue from Thursday to Saturday, and the following week from Nov. 21 to Nov. 23, with concert merchandise available for sale on some non-show days.

Swifties were all smiles as they left the merch shop, their arms full of sweaters and posters bearing pictures of the star and her Eras Tour logo.

Among them was Zoe Haronitis, 22, who said she waited in line for about two hours to get $300 worth of merchandise, including some apparel for her friends.

Haronitis endured the autumn cold and the hefty price tag even though she hasn’t secured a concert ticket. She said she’s hunting down a resale ticket and plans to spend up to $600.

“I haven’t really budgeted anything,” Haronitis said. “I don’t care how much money I spent. That was kind of my mindset.”

The megastar’s merchandise costs up to $115 for a sweater, and $30 for tote bags and other accessories.

Rachel Renwick, 28, also waited a couple of hours in line for merchandise, but only spent about $70 after learning that a coveted blue sweater and a crewneck had been snatched up by other eager fans before she got to the shop. She had been prepared to spend much more, she said.

“The two prized items sold out. I think a lot more damage would have been done,” Renwick said, adding she’s still determined to buy a sweater at a later date.

Renwick estimated she’s spent about $500 in total on “all-things Eras Tour,” including her concert outfit and merchandise.

The long queue for Swift merch is just a snapshot of what the city will see in the coming days. It’s estimated that up to 500,000 visitors from outside Toronto will be in town during the concert period.

Tens of thousands more are also expected to attend Taylgate’24, an unofficial Swiftie fan event scheduled to be held at the nearby Metro Toronto Convention Centre.

Meanwhile, Destination Toronto has said it anticipates the economic impact of the Eras Tour could grow to $282 million as the money continues to circulate.

But for fans like Haronitis, the experience in Toronto comes down to the Swiftie community. Knowing that Swift is going to be in the city for six shows and seeing hundreds gather just for merchandise is “awesome,” she said.

Even though Haronitis hasn’t officially bought her ticket yet, she said she’s excited to see the megastar.

“It’s literally incredible.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Via Rail seeks judicial review on CN’s speed restrictions

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OTTAWA – Via Rail is asking for a judicial review on the reasons why Canadian National Railway Co. has imposed speed restrictions on its new passenger trains.

The Crown corporation says it is seeking the review from the Federal Court after many attempts at dialogue with the company did not yield valid reasoning for the change.

It says the restrictions imposed last month are causing daily delays on Via Rail’s Québec City-Windsor corridor, affecting thousands of passengers and damaging Via Rail’s reputation with travellers.

CN says in a statement that it imposed the restrictions at rail crossings given the industry’s experience and known risks associated with similar trains.

The company says Via has asked the courts to weigh in even though Via has agreed to buy the equipment needed to permanently fix the issues.

Via said in October that no incidents at level crossings have been reported in the two years since it put 16 Siemens Venture trains into operation.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:CN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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