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What's happening in Canada's top real estate markets? – RealTrends

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Canadian buyers are taking a breath as they wait to see where prices will land as the market normalizes, according to the Engel & Völkers 2022 Mid-Year Canadian Luxury Real Estate Market Report, a residential property analysis covering the markets in Halifax, Montréal, Ottawa, Toronto, and Vancouver.

This year’s analysis shows how Canada’s real estate market is normalizing after record highs in 2021.

National overview 

Engel & Völkers reports Canada’s premium markets in Halifax, Montréal, Ottawa, Toronto, and Vancouver are on a path toward normalization after two years of low inventory, fervent competition, and enormous price gains. 

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Buyers are taking a breath as they wait to see where prices will land as the market normalizes; however the moment buyers who are taking a ‘wait and see’ approach return, the market will accelerate again simply because of the lack of supply to meet demand.

In the next half of the year, buyers are in a rare position to negotiate prices and deal terms. Some homes will still command multiple offers, but they will be fewer in number. First-time homebuyers should especially take advantage of this moment in the market. When interest rate hikes stabilize and buyers feel the market prices have bottomed out, competition will return—which could happen as early as fall 2022.

Here are some markets at a glance:

Halifax 

The $1 to $3.99 million range saw a 68.7% year-over-year increase in number of units sold.  During the pandemic, the Halifax Regional Municipality (HRM) experienced a period of unprecedented national interest in its real estate market. Its low COVID-19 case counts combined with affordability, open space, and waterfront lots were a perfect storm for real estate.

As we enter the mid-point of 2022, minor price fluctuations in the $1 to $3.99 million market and the conventional market represent the new normal. 

In 2021, interprovincial migration accounted for 60% of Nova Scotia’s total population growth. The HRM’s population hit one million in 2022’s first quarter and is expected to continue to climb as Halifax works to attract skilled workers. 

“Working from home has become a permanent reality for many—folks are migrating to Nova Scotia to enjoy a charming, rural, and slow-paced lifestyle,” said Donna Harding, License Partner, Engel & Völkers Nova Scotia. “We continue to see buyers from Ontario, British Columbia, the U.S., and Europe — although the market has slowed in the past two months. At the same time, Halifax’s economic growth is creating job opportunities for many skilled workers, especially those in hospitality, technology, financial services, and life sciences.” 

Halifax continues to operate in seller’s market conditions as it has been for the past 24 months. Engel & Völkers forecasts a gradual shift towards slower price increases if second-quarter trends hold into the latter part of the year. Interprovincial and international migration will continue, with growing interest from boomers looking to cash out their homes and retire in Nova Scotia.

Montréal 

Average sold price for condos in the $1 to $3.99 million range climbed 14% from June 2021.  

The past two years have accelerated Montréal’s real estate market growth, establishing a new price level across the marketplace. The beginning of 2022 represented the last leg of the race, which wound down in tandem with each announcement of increased interest rates. A market balancing process is underway, marking the beginning of the journey towards normalization.   

This normalization is expected to continue for the remainder of 2022, with buyers taking a beat to enjoy summer and travel. Activity will likely return in the fall at a balanced pace, leaving behind the leisurely tone of summer. With this, buyers may once again have time to see properties and buy with due diligence, while sellers may list their homes with confidence that they will find their next home.  

Montréal is still affordable compared to other major Canadian markets, which continues to be a point of attraction for many. Rising interest rates have changed the conventional market, but premium buyers who tend to pay for homes up front rather than take a mortgage will not be affected. 

Ottawa 

Transactions of homes priced over $1 million have doubled to 18% from 9% last year.  

Canada’s capital experienced a buying frenzy during COVID, leading to the highest escalation of home prices on record. As a result, the $1 to $3.99 million segment grew to comprise 9% of the market in 2021, doubling in 2022 to 18%.

The year began strong, though price growth has recently leveled off. After reaching a high in March, home sales plateaued, signaling the arrival of normal-leaning market conditions, which held steady through to June. The average sold price landed on $1.3 million in the $1 to $3.99 million range and $4.6 million in the over $4 million segments.  

Though new listings have increased, the market only has two months of inventory available for sale. This means Ottawa is still a strong seller’s market, but the conditions are not as extreme as in previous years. Houses are sitting on the market longer than they had in 2020 and 2021, and interest rate hikes have caused homebuyers to re-think their budget. But even if prices hold, homeowners have seen a significant equity increase in their properties.  

As many potential buyers and sellers enjoy their return to travel, this summer will be slower than in recent years when it comes to real estate activity. The market is expected to continue to balance and return to seasonal sales patterns for the remainder of 2022.

Toronto 

Average sold price for condos in the $1 to $3.99 million range climbed 4% from June 2021.  

Toronto’s real estate market has seen a meteoric rise in the past 25 years, with the average sold price climbing by 435%.

As the Canadian hub for many global companies, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) is one of the fastest-growing areas in North America and demand for real estate is consistently climbing. With demand outpacing inventory, the average price for a detached home has surpassed the $2 million mark in 2022, making Toronto’s premium market more expensive than other major Canadian cities. 

At the end of March, Ontario’s government implemented new legislation hoping to crack down on housing speculators and level exponential price growth. The tax for foreign homebuyers was raised to 20%, and a loophole allowing foreign students and workers to receive a tax rebate on real estate purchases was closed. Shortly after, the Bank of Canada increased interest rates. As a result, Toronto has seen a decline in home prices for the first time in many years.  

“With rising interest rates, the Toronto market has shifted from the frenetic pace we’ve seen in the last number of years to a more balanced market,” said Anita Springate-Renaud, License Partner, of Engel & Völkers Toronto Central. “Homebuyers are in a better position to negotiate as they are competing with fewer offers.”  

Springate-Renaud is forecasting a continuation of the normalization trend seen in the Toronto market. The increase in interest rates has impacted affordability and buyer sentiment. As a result, rents in the region are on the rise as some prospective first-time homebuyers are unable or unwilling to take the plunge. This trend  is expected to hold steady through the second half of the year.

Vancouver 

$1 million-plus market balancing with three months of inventory.  

The COVID-19 real estate scramble continued into 2022 but was curbed in April by an interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada, which kicked off the current market normalization trend. Demand waned, and a seasonal bump in new listings helped to somewhat replenish inventory. Market activity was consistent, even if at a lower volume, and prices held as demand continues to outweigh supply.  

Due to the affordability crunch, migration towards the suburban and exurban areas is still popular, though prices have decreased from the market peak. The average sales price hit $1.7 million in the $1 to $3.99 million range and $5.6 million for those over $4 million.

“To keep housing affordable for essential professionals, the City of Vancouver will need to come up with new models for housing ownership without attempting to artificially drive prices down with taxes on owners and buyers,” said Andrew Carros, License Partner, Engel & Völkers Vancouver. “This could look like government agencies and municipalities cooperating with developers and re-thinking ownership models, zoning, and financing options.”

Engel & Völkers projects that markets will be stable and continue to balance throughout the remainder of the year. There will be a steady decline in the number of units sold while new listings will continue to grow, albeit slowly. Prices may dip in the premium markets for a temporary period, but they will ultimately hold their value through this market transition.  

There is a high potential for government interference, inclusive of new rules from the BC Financial Services Authority (BCFSA) around how long sellers must wait to sell a property before reviewing offers.

There are also talks of a potential buyer rescission period of three business days after an offer is accepted on all non-commercial properties. If these regulations are implemented, there will be a transitionary period in the market that could cause buyers and sellers to hesitate or pause. This could contribute to further disruption and slow processes within the market.

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Sick of Your Blue State? These Real Estate Agents Have Just the Place for You. – The New York Times

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Jen Hubbell ​b​ecame a real estate agent ​in Greenville, S.C., because she ​b​elieved a good life started with a good home, and now her phone​ buzzed regularly w​ith ​calls from out-of-state clients who believed they could find ​b​oth things in ​her city.

​M​any were staunch conservatives ​f​rom deeply blue states like New York, Washington and California, fed up with the​ politics there.​ Could Ms. Hubbell, a conservative herself, help them​ find neighborhoods of like-minded people?

Her response was always emphatic: “You are going to love it here.”

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Ms. Hubbell is the lead agent in South Carolina for Conservative Move, a Texas-based company that helps conservatives migrate to solidly red places. (“When your community no longer reflects morals and values, it might be time to move,” its website says.) And ​with South Carolina surpassing Florida last year as the fastest-growing state in the country, she is keeping very busy.

The in-migration has fueled a yearslong real estate boom across South Carolina, where Republicans have controlled the governor’s mansion and legislature for more than two decades. Real estate agents like Ms. Hubbell say many of their clients are religious conservatives whose reasons for moving include opposition to policies like abortion access, support for transgender rights and vaccine mandates during the pandemic.

Paul Chabot, the founder and president of Conservative Move, which works with about 500 agents across the country, said that when he started his company in 2017, there were not a lot of people asking to go to South Carolina.

In the last two years, however, it has joined Texas and Florida among the top three states that the company’s clients are buying homes in, Mr. Chabot said. About 5,000 people in its clientele database have expressed interest in moving to South Carolina soon.

Most of the company’s clients in South Carolina have chosen to buy a house in Greenville County, which is in a deeply conservative and Christian region known as the Upstate. The county had the second-largest population growth in the state from 2020-2022, behind Horry County, which encompasses Myrtle Beach and has more expensive houses.

Ms. Hubbell, along with half a dozen real estate agents who do not work with Conservative Move but whose experience has mirrored hers, described having had an easy time selling the appeal of Greenville. That was especially true with clients moving from large liberal cities and their outskirts who still want a hint of a cosmopolitan life.

Greenville is big enough for Broadway shows and rooftop bars, but people still often see their neighbors downtown, where a pedestrian bridge gives an overhead view of the Reedy River Falls. Agents also often point out the lack of homeless encampments in the city.

Perhaps most important, property taxes are low, and houses are generally less expensive than out West or in New England. The median price of a house is about $360,000. Real estate agents will also note that there are hundreds of churches near Greenville, mostly Christian. And Bob Jones University, a prominent evangelical school, is here.

“When I walked inside banks or stores or schools, there was always Christian music playing in the background,” said Lina Brock, a conservative who recently moved to Greenville from Temecula, Calif., where she was dismayed by the vocal support for access to abortions. “I felt good, I felt welcomed. I felt like I was in the United States.”

Some agents use a Goldilocks-like strategy when selling clients on the state: Texas is too hot, they say; Florida is too expensive; Tennessee has too many blue cities. But South Carolina?

“It’s perfect,” Ms. Hubbell recently told a buyer.

Last year, about 15,500 New Yorkers, 15,000 Californians and 36,000 North Carolinians moved to the state, which has a population of more than 5.3 million. There is no data that breaks down those demographics by political party, but few believe that the growth will do much to shift the state politically. The same cannot be said for Texas, Georgia and North Carolina, which are becoming somewhat more blue as young, liberal-leaning people flock to some of their cities, said Mark Owens, a political science professor at the Citadel in Charleston.

The flow of conservatives into South Carolina is underscoring what even many of those moving concede is an unfortunate reality in a polarized America, as people choose to part ways with neighbors they disagree with. Several newcomers to the Greenville area said it had been a difficult decision, but that they had grown tired of feeling lonely and even ostracized.

Yana Ghannam, a recent client of Ms. Hubbell, said that she had moved to Greenville from Livermore, Calif., because she wanted to make friends who wouldn’t criticize her for voting Republican or for being anti-union. “It was very much, ‘Oh you have to do this to fit in, you have to do that,’” Ms. Ghannam said of her life in Livermore.

Politics, of course, are not the only reason people are moving to South Carolina. The weather counts for something, and jobs have been a big draw, including in a growing electric vehicle industry.

Gov. Henry McMaster has touted the state’s economic growth in recent years and attacked the few unions in the state for posing a threat to it. The South Carolina Department of Commerce said that in 2023, the state had a capital investment of more than $9 billion, the second-largest amount in its history, which represented roughly 14,000 jobs.

Still, Pamela Harrison, another real estate agent in the Upstate, said the equation for most of her clients has been simple: “They like the climate, they like the politics and they’re trying to get out of their blue states.”

Brad Liles, an agent based in Spartanburg, about 30 miles east of Greenville, said that he and his colleagues have referred to the wave of Republican newcomers as “the great migration.”

Several of the agents said that many conservative-leaning buyers in Greenville have sought acres of land slightly off the grid, avoided homeowners associations and purchased homes with plenty of backyard space for vegetable gardens, chickens or other barn animals because they are interested in being independent and self-reliant.

“If you would have told me five years ago I would have chickens, I’d be like, ‘You are lying,’” said Lauren Gomes, a conservative who moved to Greenville County in 2022 with her husband and three children because she was angered by the liberal politics in Minnesota, where her family had lived for seven generations.

Ms. Gomes, who described herself as Christian and anti-abortion, said she felt compelled to leave because she was getting yelled at in grocery stores for not wearing a mask during the pandemic, and because abortion remains legal, with no restrictions, in Minnesota.

She said she was also worried about how, in her view, “transgenderism infiltrates all aspects of education, public life, when you’re out and about” in Minnesota.

Ms. Gomes and other conservatives who moved to South Carolina said that they liked the state’s ban on abortions after about six weeks of pregnancy. Other local policies in Greenville County have also appealed to them, such as when the board of trustees for the county’s libraries voted to relocate children’s materials depicting transgender minors from the children’s section to the parenting section.

Stephen Johnson Jr. recently helped Rick and Natalie Samuelson move from Gig Harbor, Wash., to Williamston, S.C., a town of roughly 4,000 about 20 miles outside Greenville, where their budget of $2 million meant they could afford almost anything in the area.

But on Friday, the Samuelsons, who are Republican, met with Mr. Johnson at the BrickTop’s restaurant in downtown and discussed possibly buying a new home in Greenville because they wanted to live closer to a hospital. They also discussed a transgender athlete that Mr. Johnson said he saw play in a girl’s basketball game he refereed.

“It’s clearly a young boy that is bigger than all of his friend’s teammates,” Mr. Johnson said as the waiter removed the leftover deviled eggs and sweetened “Millionaire’s Bacon.” “He identifies as female, so they allowed him to play.”

Ms. Samuelson shook her head.

Then the conversation switched to how wonderful Greenville was for them.

“A conservative bubble melting pot,” Mr. Johnson said.

“It’s Christianity,” Mr. Samuelson said. “No place is more unifying for Christianity to this degree.”

The recent growth and influx of wealthier residents has forced many poorer residents out, a problem hardly unique to Greenville or the South, but hard on its Black community in particular. A 2023 study from Furman University found that Greenville has seen a 22 percent decline in its Black population since 1990, while the city’s overall population has grown by about 21 percent.

“Wealthy white families are moving into historically Black neighborhoods that ring the City of Greenville,” the study found. “Their newfound interest in places they once avoided is increasing property values beyond what the existing Black population can afford.”

Downtown Greenville, one of the biggest selling points for real estate agents, is also driving up the values of nearby homes as it continues to grow and draw crowds. On a recent Saturday night, brassy notes from saxophonists oozed from sidewalks as couples danced below treetops drizzled with dangling lights.

Similar scenes have captivated many newcomers, including Curt and Liz Cutler and their 10-year-old daughter. Mr. Cutler was fired from his sanitation job in New York City in 2021, he said, after refusing to comply with the city’s coronavirus vaccine mandate for government employees. He served as a deacon in his Baptist church there, he said, but his request for a religious exemption was denied.

They had traveled 700 miles southward, spent $350,000 on a home outside Spartanburg, painted the interior walls a pumpkin-cream shade and built a den for their chickens. They had trusted their real estate agent’s promise of a Christian, conservative America, and on a recent Sunday, the family worshiped at a Baptist church, thanking God for their new home.

“Blessed shall be you by the city,” the pastor said. “And blessed shall be you by the country.”

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The real estate sector's unique view of 2024 — and what's to come – Yahoo Finance

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This is The Takeaway from today’s Morning Brief, which you can sign up to receive in your inbox every morning along with:

Despite a rough few days for the S&P 500, which is still comfortably in the green this year (up 6%), one sector of the stock market is feeling more pain than the rest.

The perception that rates might stay higher for longer is hammering the real estate sector, even as debate rages about how many times — if any — the Federal Reserve will cut rates this year.

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The group is far and away the worst performer in the S&P 500 for 2024, down more than 10%. The bulk of those declines have come in the past two weeks, as Treasury yields have climbed to their highest level since November and investors traverse the acceptance phase that the hoped-for cuts are not on their way.

Now investors are faced with the question of whether to buy the dip or, to quote another market cliché, risk trying to catch a falling knife.

One real estate investor said the rent indicators she’s seeing in real time are encouraging on the inflation front. That’s in contrast to the much-criticized rental barometers that the Fed relies on.

“If you take into account real-time shelter costs, it’s much lower than what’s in the prints,” Uma Moriarity, senior investment strategist at CenterSquare, told Yahoo Finance. “We think inflation is trending in the right direction.”

That’s why she’s still confident in three rate cuts this year — a view, of course, that the market has been moving away from. It’s also why she’s still confident in real estate. That, plus the fact that stocks are relatively cheap.

Read more: What the Fed rate decision means for loans and mortgages

The reasons that real estate stocks suffer when rates are on the rise are twofold. First off, the companies tend to carry a lot of debt, and as rates go higher, it becomes more difficult to service or refinance that debt. Secondly, with relatively high dividend yields, the stocks compete with instruments like money market funds for investing dollars.

It’s traditionally been tough for real estate stocks to rally in the face of rising rates. But if Moriarty — and Citigroup — are right, they might not be rising for as long as the broader market anticipates.

Julie Hyman is the co-anchor of Yahoo Finance Live, weekdays 9 a.m.-11 a.m. ET. Follow her on Twitter @juleshyman, and read her other stories.

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Celebrity real estate agent Mauricio Umansky explains when housing prices will come down – Fox Business

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