adplus-dvertising
Connect with us

Economy

What's Happening in the World Economy: A Tough Winter Lies Ahead – Bloomberg

Published

 on


Hello. Today we look at the challenges facing the world economy, this week’s U.S. employment report and how a Chinese slowdown may impact other countries.

Feeling the Chill

The world economy is running into many headwinds as the year enters its final stretch and the northern hemisphere’s winter beckons:

  • The delta variant abounds, limiting activity
  • Supply chains are straining and ports are congested 
  • China is being rocked by a power crunch, regulatory crackdown and turmoil at Evergrande
  • Food and commodity prices are surging, propelling inflation 
  • There are labor shortages in certain industries
  • U.S. lawmakers are at odds over spending and the federal debt limit
  • Central banks are starting to withdraw stimulus

Put them all together and these different forces suggest the recovery from the pandemic recession is going to be challenged in coming months, as Enda Curran writes in this rundown of all the potential spoilers.

“Expectations of a swift exit from the pandemic were always misplaced,” said Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC in Hong Kong. “Full recovery will be measured in years, not quarters.” 

This makes for a difficult job for central bankers as they juggle when best to slow or reverse supportive monetary policies. They could add to the economic weakness by acting prematurely, or alternatively they could let inflation run out of control by acting too late.

It could get even worse. Bank of America analysts told clients on Friday that oil could reach $100 a barrel for the first time since 2014 and spur an economic crisis. 

“We may just be one storm away from the next macro hurricane,” analysts including Francisco Blanch wrote.

Perhaps among those faring worst is the U.K. economy. 

In Bloomberg’s Big Take today, Joe MayesLizzy Burden and Isis Almeida detail how Brexit is leaving the country even more isolated as it runs short of workers and faces a winter potentially tougher than any since the 1970s.

Simon Kennedy

The Week Ahead

Employers in the U.S. probably stepped up their hiring in September after lackluster jobs growth a month earlier, illustrating gradual yet choppy progress toward filling a record number of vacancies.

Friday’s report from the Labor Department is predicted to show payrolls increased by about half a million last month, almost twice as much as in August, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Unemployment is forecast to have fallen to 5.1% from 5.2%.

Elsewhere, global negotiators meeting to agree on a new landscape for corporate taxation will try to keep their ground-breaking deal alive in a crucial Oct. 8 gathering.

Central Bank Decisions This Week

Source: Bloomberg

Note: Mapped data show rate decision schedules for distinct central banks

.chart-js display: none;

Meanwhile, central banks in New Zealand, Iceland and Peru are among those likely to raise interest rates among several decisions due, and Japan may get a new finance minister. 

Check out the world economy’s full diary here.

Today’s Must Reads

  • Biden on China | The U.S. administration will directly engage with Beijing in the coming days to enforce commitments in their trade deal and start a new process to exclude certain products from U.S. tariffs.
  • Debt drama | U.S. politicians are locked in a huge fight over the size of the national debt, even though investors, economists and officials are much more focused on what it costs.
  • Fed trading | Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida traded between $1 million and $5 million out of a bond fund into stock funds one day before Chair Jerome Powell flagged possible policy action as the pandemic worsened, his 2020 financial disclosures show. 
  • European real estate | A boom in the region’s property prices is widening the gulf between the haves and have nots, feeding anger about  inequality and accusations that property markets are broken and unfair.
#lazy-img-379502476:beforepadding-top:85.28072837632777%;relates to Bracing for Winter
  • American restaurants | The fragile recovery in U.S. food hospitality is sputtering. A survey found that 51% of small restaurants in the country couldn’t pay their rent in September, up from 40% in July.
  • New Japanese finance chief | Former Olympics Minister Shunichi Suzuki on Monday became Japan’s first new finance minister in nearly nine years, replacing Taro Aso as the ruling party reboots its cabinet in the run-up to a general election.
  • Rich pickings | Nordic countries are placing themselves in the vanguard of economies trying to get wealthy people to fund public finances more in the aftermath of the ordeal.
  • Christmas at risk | Supply chain strains mean retailers are already in various forms of panic that usually don’t take hold until the weeks before the holidays hit. 

Need-to-Know Research

China’s slowdown is a potential challenge for global growth.

#lazy-img-379406170:beforepadding-top:66.48793565683646%;relates to Bracing for Winter

At Citigroup, a vulnerability index indicates that exporters of manufacturers and commodities are particularly at risk to a weakening Chinese economy.

Neighbors like Taiwan and Korea are sensitive to a slowdown as are metal exporters such as Australia and Chile. Key trading partners such as Germany are also somewhat exposed.

On #EconTwitter

#lazy-img-379408456:beforepadding-top:104.59965928449743%;relates to Bracing for Winter

Read more reactions on Twitter

Enjoy reading the New Economy Daily?

  • Click here for more economic stories
  • Tune into the Stephanomics podcast
  • Subscribe here for our daily Supply Lines newsletter, here for our weekly Beyond Brexit newsletter
  • Follow us @economics

The fourth annual Bloomberg New Economy Forum will convene the world’s most influential leaders in Singapore on Nov. 16-19 to mobilize behind the effort to build a sustainable and inclusive global economy. Learn more here.

    Adblock test (Why?)

    728x90x4

    Source link

    Continue Reading

    Economy

    Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

    Published

     on

     

    OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

    Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

    Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

    Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

    Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

    Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

    Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

    According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

    That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

    People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

    That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

    Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

    That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

    Source link

    Continue Reading

    Economy

    Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

    Published

     on

     

    The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

    The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

    CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

    This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

    While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

    Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

    The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

    Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

    Source link

    Continue Reading

    Economy

    Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

    Published

     on

     

    As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

    Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

    A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

    More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

    Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

    “It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

    “It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

    American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

    It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

    “A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

    “It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

    A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

    Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

    “Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

    Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

    With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

    “With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

    “By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

    Source link

    Continue Reading

    Trending