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What's next after S&P 500’s worst inflation data day in years – Financial Post

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Investors are staring at a potentially long way down before they find support

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The S&P 500 index blew past a series of troubling markers in its relentless rally to 5,000. Now, after the rout on Feb. 13, investors are staring at a potentially long way down before they find support.

Signs of overexuberance are everywhere. The S&P 500s 15-week rally, in which it gained 22 per cent through Feb. 12’s close, pushed the gauge 13 per cent above its 200-day moving average, something that has occurred on just five per cent of the trading days this century. Hedge funds’ exposure to money-losing tech firms is hovering near a two-year high. And positioning across the stock market is stretched and demand for loss protection muted.

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The cold water to douse those flames arrived on the morning of Feb. 13 in the form of consumer price index (CPI) data showing inflation remains stickier than expected. The rally that had been predicated on the belief that the United States Federal Reserve’s imminent pivot to interest rate cuts slammed into reality, as those bets are being frantically rolled back.

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“The data put in doubt investors’ optimism that the central bank’s interest-rate cuts are basically a done deal,” Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Independent Advisor Alliance LLC, said. “It reinforced the idea that interest rate cuts are not coming any time soon. And if that’s the case, all of a sudden, the stock market rally is looking stretched.”

The risk-off momentum pushed the S&P 500 down 1.4 per cent on Feb. 13, its worst CPI-day performance since September 2022. The Nasdaq 100 index fell 1.6 per cent, while the stocks with the highest short interest dropped 5.5 per cent in the biggest loss in almost a year. Roughly 91 per cent of the stocks on the New York Stock Exchange traded lower, the most since March 2023.

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Whether this rout continues is anyone’s guess, but a 13 per cent gap between the S&P 500 and its 200-day moving average historically is a bad sign. The setup preceded losses for the S&P 500 in 2011, 2015 and 2018, data compiled Andrew Thrasher, technical analyst and portfolio manager at Financial Enhancement Group LLC, shows.

SP500 lows

“The spark for this selloff is the inflation data, but coming into this week, momentum was already pretty stretched,” he said. “The rubber band can only go so far, and the momentum for many stocks was showing signs of exhaustion.”

What’s next? A line of defence for the S&P 500 could be at 4,909, its 20-day moving average (DMA), Thrasher said. Its 50-DMA will be another critical milestone. After that, traders will watch this year’s intraday low of 4,682 on Jan. 5. And then it’s the 4,600 level, which capped the S&P 500’s rally in July, but ultimately yielded to the risk-on momentum in December as the gauge powered to new highs.

Another issue for bulls is that fewer stocks have been participating in the rally this year, which could worsen the pain as indexes decline. Some 51 per cent of stocks in the S&P 500 are trading above their 50-day moving average, the fewest since November.

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That said, there are signs of fundamental strength. Corporate America’s profit machine keeps chugging, the U.S. consumer is solid and unemployment remains in check. But a relative lack of hedging demand amid a 15-week, 22 per cent S&P 500 rally is a worrisome sign of complacency. The so-called put-to-call skew on the Top 50 stocks in the S&P 500 is approaching the level last seen in the first quarter of 2021.

“Market participants had been conditioned to expect a linear decline in inflation,” Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC, said. “They were hoping numbers would cooperate with a glide path toward a two per cent target, leading to the rate cuts that the market had priced in.”

— With assistance from Hema Parmar.

Bloomberg.com

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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