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What’s next for markets after Fed’s 4th straight jumbo rate hike

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What’s next for markets now that the Federal Reserve has delivered its fourth and possibly final jumbo rate increase of 75 basis points?

Well, a lot, actually.

A sometimes tumultuous third-quarter earnings season isn’t over yet. A packed economic-data calendar in the coming weeks includes key readings on inflation and the labor market. On top of that, the U.S. midterm elections could result in Democrats losing control of one, or both, chambers of Congress.

MarketWatch spoke with several market gurus about what investors should watch out for, and what it all might mean for their portfolios.

Inflation, jobs data could force the Fed to keep rates ‘higher for longer’

The Fed may be penciling in another rate increase of 50 basis points at its December meeting, but any sign that inflation isn’t trending toward the central bank’s target still could send stocks reeling and Treasury yields surging, market strategists said.

Indeed, stocks initially rallied after the Fed’s Wednesday policy statement signaled a slower pace of rate increases was in the offing. But indexes ended the day down sharply after Chairman Jerome Powell, in his news conference, said it was premature to “pause” rate hikes and that the terminal — or peak — interest rate was likely to be higher than policy makers had anticipated in September.

Although headline inflation has softened from the fastest pace in more than 40 years, core prices are still accelerating at an uncomfortable rate, and wage growth remains a “mixed bag,” Powell said.

“A lot of what the Fed ultimately does will depend on what happens with inflation,” said Jack Ablin, founding partner and chief investment officer at Cresset Capital.

The consumer-price index for October is due out on Nov. 10, followed by the personal-consumption expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred barometer of inflation pressures, on Dec. 1.

But there’s still plenty to learn about inflation from the October jobs report due out Friday, including its reading on average hourly earnings.

“I think certainly the payrolls number is important, and it all circles back to what it means for inflation,” Ablin said.

Bottom line: Any further indication that the Fed will need to keep interest rates “higher for longer” to combat inflation could exacerbate the weakness in both stocks and bond prices, which move inversely to yields, seen so far this year.

“The increased momentum of inflation sets a high bar for the Fed to end the current rate hike cycle and an even higher one to begin cutting rates,” said Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank.

Midterms and the return of gridlock

Even if Democrats manage to hang on to both chambers of Congress, investors will likely breath a sigh of relief once Tuesday’s U.S. midterm elections have ended.

“We frequently see stocks rally after the election no matter what the outcome is,” said Callie Cox, U.S. investment analyst at eToro.

Some investors think Republicans retaking the House or the Senate could be bullish for stocks, said Octavio Marenzi, CEO of markets-focused management consulting firm Opimas.

According to Marenzi, a divided Congress would likely lead to more gridlock, which in turn would mean less inherently inflationary fiscal spending.

“Markets might look favorably on a Republican takeover of at least one of the houses [of Congress],” he said.

Earnings remain important

Corporate earnings growth has held up surprisingly well so far this year despite the drumbeat of guidance cuts and ominous rhetoric from corporate executives, said eToro’s Cox.

But the third-quarter earnings season isn’t over yet, which can mean more unpleasant surprises, like what investors saw when Alphabet Inc.
GOOG,
-3.79%
,
Meta Platforms Inc.
META,
-4.89%

and Amazon.com Inc.
AMZN,
-4.82%

reported earnings last week.

Amazon, Meta and Alphabet now require ‘perfection,’ analyst says in Big Tech ‘autopsy’

Investors are still waiting on earnings from more than 150 S&P 500 companies, according to FactSet. Beyond that, there’s also the risk that earnings guidance cuts could weigh on equity prices, market strategists said.

Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. Equity Strategist and Chief Investment Officer Michael Wilson said in recent weeks that guidance cuts may not arrive until companies report fourth-quarter earnings early next year, if at all.

Right now, the S&P 500 is expected to achieve full-year earnings growth of 5.6% in 2022, and 3.9% in 2023, according to Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. That has come down slightly since Sept. 30, when investors anticipated full-year growth of 6.3% and 7%.

A Russian winter offensive could complicate the outlook for markets

The Ukrainian military lately has succeeded in keeping Russian forces at bay. But that could change if Russia launches a winter offensive, according to Marenzi.

Russia already has been calling up thousands of troops and preparing to send them to the front lines.

Historically speaking “winter has been their friend,” Marenzi said about the Russian military. “And I think it might end up being their friend again.”

A Russian advance in Ukraine would likely hurt risky assets like stocks, Marenzi said, while benefiting traditional havens like the dollar, Treasurys and gold
GC00,
-0.90%
.

Speaking of stocks, the major U.S. indexes finished Wednesday sharply lower after a volatile session.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-1.55%

tumbled 505 points, or 1.6%, to end at 32,147.76 after briefly topping 33,071 at the session’s high, according to FactSet. The S&P 500 index
SPX,
-2.50%

fell 2.5% and the Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
-3.36%

closed 3.4% lower, the biggest daily drop for both indexes since Oct. 7.

Treasury yields
TMUBMUSD02Y,
4.607%

also climbed after experiencing similar levels of volatility. The yield on the 2-year note rose 3 basis points to 4.568% based on 3 p.m. Eastern Time levels, its highest level in two weeks.

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Before Spending Money on a ‘Career Coach,’ Do Yourself a Favour, First Try These Job Search Strategies

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I’m sure you’re aware of the “career coaching” industry—Internet talking heads promising job search and career success—that’s sprung up in recent years. Worth noting: The industry is unregulated. All career coaches are self-proclaimed; no certification or licensing is required.

 

Career coaches have one ultimate goal: To make money off you.

 

Today’s tight job market is making job seekers frustrated and desperate, which career coaches are taking advantage of with their promise of insider knowledge, personalized guidance, and a direct line to the hidden job market. Career coaches market themselves as a shortcut to finding a job, which is appealing when you’ve been unemployed for a while.

 

I’m not averse to hiring a career coach to assist you with your job search; it’s your money. However, keep in mind a career coach…

 

  • is a significant expense, especially if you’re unemployed
  • will only offer common sense advice, nothing that you probably already don’t know or haven’t read or heard before, and
  • doesn’t have insider knowledge

 

…and you’ll still need to do the activities related to job searching.

 

When asked, “Nick, should I hire a career coach?” my answer is an unequivocal “No!” Conducting your job search solo will not only save you money, you’ll also be developing job search skills you’ll need for the next time—chances are there’ll be a next time—you’re job hunting. Before spending thousands of dollars on a career coach, I suggest first trying the following job search strategies.

 

Optimize your online presence.

 

In today’s digital-first job market, employers will check your online digital footprint to evaluate your candidacy; are your interview-worthy? Start with the obvious: Ensure your LinkedIn profile is up-to-date and showcases your quantified accomplishments (a non-quantified statement is an opinion) so employers can see the value you can add. Do yourself a favour, read LinkedIn Mastery: A Comprehensive Guide to Navigating Digital Landscapes Effectively, by Benjamin Stone.

 

Necessary: Stay active on LinkedIn!

 

Your LinkedIn profile can’t be non-active. Maximizing LinkedIn’s potential requires regularly engaging with content, commenting on posts, and contributing original content. Engaging actively and visibly on LinkedIn will lead to opportunities.

 

Next:

 

  • List your social media accounts.
  • Deactivate accounts you are no longer using.
  • Set any accounts you don’t want prospective employers or recruiters to see to private.
  • Ensure your social media profiles (g., display name, handle, headshot, bio) convey the same message about your professional background.

 

Leverage your existing network (a low-hanging fruit few job seekers take advantage of).

 

Everyone has a network of some sort. This means since all job opportunities are attached to people—good news—there are job opportunities all around you. Often, your barista, dentist, hairstylist, neighbours, fellow members of whatever club or association you’re a part of, and, of course, family and friends can help open doors for you.

 

Tell everyone you know that you’re looking for a new job. Always carry extra copies of your resume and hand them out when appropriate. You’ll be surprised at the number of people willing to help you when they understand your situation.

 

Read these two books:

 

 

Ferrazzi outlines practical strategies for building relationships, networking, and leveraging connections

.

 

Hollins provides actionable strategies for achieving your job search and career goals, such as overcoming procrastination and boosting productivity with focus and discipline.

 

Apply less, connect more.

 

Applying online is a waste of time. In previous columns, I’ve noted that applying online is comparable to playing the lottery; you’re hoping a stranger hires you. Numerous studies have shown that most jobs aren’t advertised; they’re filled through connections and referrals.

 

Job searching today is a long game; you need to be patient. Today, you need to network your way into a company and identify opportunities, which no career coach can do for you. It’s unlikely the resume you submit online will be reviewed. Paying to have your resume redesigned won’t get it more views; getting it in front of people who can hire you will.

 

Take what you will from the following.

 

A few months back, a job seeker asked me, “I’ve been working as a help desk agent at a healthcare software company for five years. I want to become a Director of IT at a large multinational company. What should I do?”

 

How should I know? I’m not a Director of IT. Why not ask the Director of IT at a large multinational company?

 

Take advantage of the fact that people love talking about themselves. Dinner with someone who holds the position you aspire to is a better investment than hiring a career coach who lacks your dinner partner’s real-world experience. I charted my career path by observing those ahead of me and seeking their advice. Talking to people who are where you want to be will benefit your job search and help you achieve your career aspirations.

 

By shifting your mindset, optimizing your online presence, leveraging your existing network, staying engaged on LinkedIn, and connecting with the right people, you won’t need to hire a costly career coach, and you’ll develop skills you can use throughout your career.

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Nick Kossovan, a well-seasoned veteran of the corporate landscape, offers “unsweetened” job search advice. You can send Nick your questions to artoffindingwork@gmail.com.

 

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How to Start a Business?

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Market Research

You have to conduct research on the whole market and find out the gap. This gap will be your opportunity. Moreover, this research will give you an idea of how different businesses work and how they fulfill the needs of the people. Businesses work due to the demand for their products and services in the market. So, through this research, you have to collect information about the following things:

 

 

You can use surveys, questionnaires, and focus group interviews to extract information on the above factors.

 

Business Plan

Develop a complete roadmap for your business. This plan should cover all the details from the manufacturing to the sales and pricing.

 

It has a summary of the complete execution of the company, including the mission of the company, product or service of the company, competitors of the company, management, and employees of the company, as well as the location of the company. This plan should be in such a way that everyone can easily understand.

Investment For Business

If you are not self-funded, then you will need investment for your business. There are several ways to find investment, such as the following:

 

●     Venture capital

You can offer the shares of the company in exchange for shares of the company. In the beginning, you have to offer the company ownership to finance your project.

●     Crowdfunding

In this type of investment, a large number of people give funds to the startup. They are not given shares and profits from the company. However, the company provides them with gifts in the future for their finances.

●     Loans

There are many government and private companies that are offering loans for small and large companies. For this loan, you have to prepare a business plan, expense sheet, and expected profits. You can find several companies that are providing loans for businesses, such as Lendforall, Baker Tilly, West Bank Union, etc.

Structure of Business

Before starting a business, you have to select its structure. Traditionally, you will find the following structures of business:

  • Sole proprietorship
  • Partnership
  • Limited Liability Company
  • Corporation

 

To select any structure, you must analyze and compare your business with others. You will get an idea of which structure will be the most suitable for your business.

Business Tools

Nowadays, there are several business tools available in the market. These tools have made business management easy to a great extent. However, you have to invest in these tools to compete the market. Here are some important tools for business:

 

 

Many other tools are available in the market that are used for different management purposes.

Registration of Business

You have to register your business with the federal government. Moreover, you should apply for the insurance for your business. There are many other documents, such as tax IDs from federal and state governments, licenses and permits for your business, and applying for a business bank account.

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Show Employers You Can Hit the Ground Running

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Employers are increasingly stating: “We want someone who can hit the ground running.”

Essentially, the message is, “Don’t expect us to explain the basics. We expect you to know your sh*t.” Employers understand you’ll need time to learn their business, applications, software, infrastructure, etc. However, they expect that you’re proficient in Microsoft Office Suite software (Word, Excel, PowerPoint), understand file management (creating, saving, and organizing files), and know how to troubleshoot common computer problems, and won’t be learning these basic computer skills as part of your learning curve on their dime.

Employers aren’t in the business of training people. You’re responsible for your career; therefore, you’re responsible for acquiring the skillset you need.

For an employee’s compensation to be justified, an ROI (return on investment) is required. When referring to employment, ROI refers to the value an employee brings to the company relative to their compensation. Employers pay their employees, and employees work for their wages. Employee work value is created when their work directly or indirectly results in profitably selling the company’s goods and services. Your best chance of job security (no guarantee) is to be an employee who undeniably contributes measurable value to your employer’s profitability.

(Employee’s measurable value to the company) – (Employer’s investment in compensation) = (ROI)

Understandably, employers are looking for candidates who can make an immediate impact, individuals who can jump right in, learn and adapt quickly, and start delivering results as soon as possible. Hence, you want to distinguish yourself as being capable and willing to “hit the ground running.”

Here are some tips to help you present yourself as a fast-starting, high-potential hire:

Emphasize relevant experience

Presenting irrelevant information will be perceived as lacking the ability to communicate succinctly, a highly valued skill in the business world. Only share experiences and quantified results (key), results that are pertinent to the position you’re applying for.

When crafting your resume and cover letter, identify the skills, knowledge, and previous responsibilities/quantified results that align with the job you’re aiming for. By demonstrating that you’ve “been there, done that” and brought measurable value to previous employers in a similar scenario, employers will feel confident that you can immediately deliver value.

Showcase transferable skills

Consider the universal soft skills that employers universally value.

  • Analytical
  • Communication
  • Interpersonal
  • Problem-solving
  • Project management
  • Time management

Tell STAR (Situation, Task, Action, Result) stories—describing a specific situation, the task you were assigned, the actions you took, and the results of your actions—that showcase your soft skills and explain how you can leverage them to succeed in the role you’re applying for. This’ll assure your interviewer you have the fundamental skills to achieve successful outcomes.

“While working at Norback, Jenkins, & St. Clair, I led a team of five architects to redesign a historic downtown Winnipeg landmark according to strict deadlines and complex stakeholder demands. I conducted Monday morning team meetings and used Slack to provide tailored updates to keep the team aligned. As a result of my communication skills, the project was completed on time and under the $7.5 million dollars budget.”

Discuss onboarding insights

A great way to position yourself as someone eager to hit the ground running is to show that you’ve considered what it’ll take to start delivering value.

“Based on my understanding of the typical onboarding timeline for this type of position, I anticipate completing all training and ramp-up activities within my first two weeks, enabling me to begin tackling projects by my first quarter.”

Assuming you’ve researched the company and studied current industry trends, which you should have done, mention the extra steps you’ve taken to prepare for the role. This’ll show your willingness to learn and will require minimal handholding.

Emphasize quick adaptability

Employers value the ability to adapt quickly to new situations and challenges. During your interviews, share examples of your flexibility and agility.

At some point in your career, you’ve likely had to learn something new (e.g., software, operating system) on the fly. Also likely, you’ve had to navigate a major change or disruption. Using STAR stories, explain how you approached these scenarios, your strategies, and the positive outcomes.

By showing resilience, resourcefulness, and adaptability, you demonstrate that you can thrive in ambiguous or rapidly evolving environments.

Propose a transition plan.

Presenting a transition plan is a strategy that wows employers, primarily because it is rare for a candidate to do this. This shows you’re ready to take ownership of your onboarding and deliver results.

Include specifics like:

  • Milestones you aim to accomplish in your first 30, 60, and 90 days.
  • Training activities or learning opportunities you’ll pursue.
  • Initial projects or tasks you’d tackle to demonstrate your capabilities.
  • Ways you’ll quickly build relationships with your new colleagues.

Showing this level of forethought and initiative shows you’re a strategic thinker, able to organize your thoughts, and, most importantly, eager to get started.

By touting your relevant experience, showcasing your transferable skills, discussing your onboarding insights, emphasizing your quick adaptability, and proposing a detailed transition plan, you’ll position yourself as a self-driven professional capable of driving results from the start, differentiating you from your competition.

_____________________________________________________________________

 

Nick Kossovan, a well-seasoned veteran of the corporate landscape, offers “unsweetened” job search advice. You can send Nick your questions to artoffindingwork@gmail.com.

 

 

 

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