Pfizer has begun to roll out its COVID-19 vaccine after the Food and Drug Administration authorized it for emergency use on Dec. 11. About 2.9 million doses of the vaccine, developed by Pfizer and the biotech company BioNTech, were sent to locations around the U.S. during the first week of delivery.A second vaccine, developed by Moderna, was granted FDA approved for emergency use last Friday.
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the United States’ senior official for infectious diseases, said that with the vaccines, we could begin to reach the early stages of herd immunity by late spring or summer. That’s when economic experts think we might start to see some economic recovery, provided enough people opt to take the vaccine. But going back to full employment is likely going to take several years, cautioned Daniel Bachman, senior manager with Deloitte Services LP.
In the most optimistic scenario, we could see a normalization of activity — think being able to head back to work — by April or May, said Bachman. But most likely, it’ll be over the summer.
That’s also when Ryan Demmer, an associate professor of epidemiology and community health at the University of Minnesota said he thinks business at places like restaurants, which were some of the hardest hit by the pandemic, will begin to pick up again.
“There might be masking and distancing and precautions in place, but I think things will be much more open” by mid-summer, Demmer said.
The restaurant industry has been in dire straits, with some regions in the U.S. imposing bans on outdoor dining and other regions facing blustery weather conditions that make outdoor dining difficult.
Jerome Jaggernath, who’s worked as a cashier at the New York City restaurant Black Burger for several years, said the business is just trying to survive the winter as sales have declined.
“Suffice to say, we’ve been struggling. So far, we’ve been, you know, head above water,” Jaggernath said.
Daniel Zhao, senior economist for Glassdoor, said he thinks there is a case for cautious optimism about the economy.
“If the vaccine does reach widespread public availability, there are some economic indicators which point to a faster recovery in 2021,” Zhao said.
He said that data on Glassdoor shows that job openings are down roughly 10% below pre-crisis levels.
“That’s actually a very accelerated recovery relative to what we saw after the Great Recession,” Zhao noted. “After the Great Recession, job openings dropped by over half. And it wasn’t until several years later that demand for new workers actually recovered to pre-Great Recession levels.”
Zhao said that some sectors will take longer to return back to normal activity than others, like live events.
“I think even if it becomes fully safe to do so, to return to large live events by the end of 2021, people will be hesitant just because of the recent pandemic,” Zhao said. “There are going to be psychological barriers for people to fully return to pre-pandemic activity.”
Congress’ next steps for a relief package is going to have an effect on the economy as well. Republicans and Democrats agreed on Sunday to a $900 billion relief deal that will include $600 payments to individuals making $75,000 a year or less, and an extra $300 a week in unemployment benefits for 11 weeks. It won’t include direct aid or state and local governments, nor the Republican-led stipulation that would prevent businesses from getting sued for their response to the coronavirus.
Heidi Shierholz with the Economic Policy Institute told Marketplace that the economy is backsliding without more stimulus spending to help shore up state and local government budgets.
“What happens in recessions is state and local governments see a big drop in revenues, because people have less money to spend,” Shierholz said. “Unless the federal government steps in to fill in their budget shortfalls, they have to make big cuts.”
She said that after the Great Recession, Congress didn’t provide enough relief to state and local governments, which meant they had to make big cuts.
Which essential workers should be prioritized for vaccines?
Americans have started to receive doses of the first COVID-19 vaccine. Front-line health care workers and residents of long-term care facilities will be first to get the shots, according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidance. Essential workers will be considered next, but with limited vaccine doses and a lot of workers considered essential, the jockeying has already started over which ones should go to the front of the line: meatpacking workers, pilots, bankers and ride-share drivers among them. The CDC will continue to consider how to best distribute the vaccine, but ultimately it’s up to each state to decide who gets the shots when.
Could relaxing patents help poorer countries get vaccines faster?
The Pfizer vaccine has to be kept in extreme cold at minus 94 degrees Fahrenheit. And keeping it that cold requires dry ice. Where does that dry ice come from?
Also, is there enough of it to go around? And how much is it going to cost? The demand for dry ice is about to spike, and a whole bunch of industries are worried. Now, dry ice sells for $1 to $3 a pound. While the vaccine gets priority, smaller businesses and nonessential industries may end up losing out.
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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the country’s merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $1.3 billion in September as imports fell more than exports.
The result compared with a revised deficit of $1.5 billion for August. The initial estimate for August released last month had shown a deficit of $1.1 billion.
Statistics Canada says the results for September came as total exports edged down 0.1 per cent to $63.9 billion.
Exports of metal and non-metallic mineral products fell 5.4 per cent as exports of unwrought gold, silver, and platinum group metals, and their alloys, decreased 15.4 per cent. Exports of energy products dropped 2.6 per cent as lower prices weighed on crude oil exports.
Meanwhile, imports for September fell 0.4 per cent to $65.1 billion as imports of metal and non-metallic mineral products dropped 12.7 per cent.
In volume terms, total exports rose 1.4 per cent in September while total imports were essentially unchanged in September.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 5, 2024.
