adplus-dvertising
Connect with us

Business

When will the past year of rate rises actually start to bite? And why haven’t they so far?

Published

 on

The key question in front of investors these days is simple: When – if ever – will the recent surge in interest rates begin to slam the brakes on the economy?

The Bank of Canada has boosted its policy interest rate by nearly five percentage points in little more than a year. That constitutes the most rapid and overwhelming set of rate hikes in four decades. Yet, to most experts’ shock, the economy is still powering ahead despite the galloping increase in borrowing costs.

The jobs market remains robust, home prices have resumed rising and the recession that everyone expected to materialize around now is missing in action.

What’s not so clear is what to make of this surprising resilience. It could be a fool’s paradise – an illusion that will vanish as higher interest rates begin to bite and drag the economy into recession. Alternatively, it could be the real deal. Perhaps inflation will continue to painlessly fade away and the economy will keep on chugging along.

In announcing its latest rate hike this week, the Bank of Canada came down on the side of the optimists, boosting its outlook for economic growth this year. It also predicted that growth would slow next year but remain at least decent through the end of its forecast window in 2025.

Investors are looking on the bright side, too. The S&P/TSX Composite Index has gained a solid 4.4 per cent so far this year. The market apparently doesn’t see any big reason for worry.

Neither do consumers. Canadians may not be increasing their spending at quite the same rate as earlier this year, but we are still spending freely, according to a report this week from Carrie Freestone, a Royal Bank of Canada economist. We’re travelling, we’re going out to restaurants, we’re celebrating in bars.

Our collective nonchalance in the face of rapidly rising interest rates reflects a job market that continues to hum along. It also reflects the amount of liquid (or easily tapped) savings that households accumulated during the pandemic years.

These “liquidity buffers,” as the Bank of Canada quaintly calls them, have soared for three out of every four households. A household of average income now has liquid savings equal to about eight times its monthly expenditures. Before the pandemic, it had liquid savings of only about twice its expenditures.

This increase in savings is genuinely good news. But before concluding that a soft landing for the economy is in sight, investors may want to consider what history has to say.

Policy-makers have delivered an interest-rate jolt of the current size only twice in the past half century. The biggest shock came at the start of the 1980s, when the central bank hiked rates more than 10 percentage points in a little more than a year to rein in runaway inflation. The other came at the end of that decade, when the bank boosted rates more than six percentage points between 1987 and 1990.

On both occasions, the economy toppled into recession. The stock market swooned.


Rolling in cash

Households accumulated liquid assets – cash and similar easy-

to-access wealth – during the pandemic. The richest three

quarters of Canadian households now have far more liquid

assets relative to their monthly spending than they did before

the pandemic.

Median ratio of liquid assets to monthly expenditures

Lowest earning

quarter of

households

Second lowest

earning quarter

of households

Second highest

earning quarter

of households

Highest earning

quarter of

households

john sopinski/the globe and mail, Source: bank of canada

Rolling in cash

Households accumulated liquid assets – cash and similar easy-

to-access wealth – during the pandemic. The richest three

quarters of Canadian households now have far more liquid

assets relative to their monthly spending than they did before

the pandemic.

Median ratio of liquid assets to monthly expenditures

Lowest earning

quarter of

households

Second lowest

earning quarter

of households

Second highest

earning quarter

of households

Highest earning

quarter of

households

john sopinski/the globe and mail, Source: bank of canada

Rolling in cash

Households accumulated liquid assets – cash and similar easy-to-access wealth – during the pandemic.

The richest three quarters of Canadian households now have far more liquid assets relative

to their monthly spending than they did before the pandemic.

Median ratio of liquid assets to monthly expenditures

Lowest earning

quarter of

households

Second lowest

earning quarter

of households

Second highest

earning quarter

of households

Highest earning

quarter of

households

john sopinski/the globe and mail, Source: bank of canada

It seems reasonable to think something similar may happen this time around.

A few warning lights are already flashing yellow. The most worrisome is the stubborn refusal of core inflation to fall. While headline inflation has plummeted in recent months, its decline owes a lot to falling gasoline prices. Core inflation, which excludes more volatile elements, has not been so obliging.

Measured over three-month intervals, it has remained stuck in the 3.5-per-cent to 4-per-cent range since last autumn, well above policy-makers’ 2-per-cent target. “All this suggests increased risk that the progress toward price stability could stall,” the Bank of Canada’s Monetary Policy Report warned this week.

At the very least, persistently high core inflation increases the chance that interest rates will remain elevated for some time – not good news for the growing number of people who have fallen behind in payments on instalment loans, car loans and credit cards. While overall delinquency rates remain low, “the share of borrowers moving from 60 to 90-plus days late on any credit product has risen and is now close to a historical high,” the central bank noted.

That isn’t the only ominous sign. Consider the yield curve, a measure of how short-term bond yields compare with longer-term ones. It is inverted, meaning that we are in an unusual situation in which short-term bonds are paying more than long-term ones. In the past, such inversions have been an excellent indicator of economic downturns to come.

What does all this mean for investors? National Bank of Canada suggests it’s time to get cautious. The bank’s equity strategy team this week reduced the weight of Canadian stocks in its model portfolio to 18 per cent from the previous 20 per cent.

The trim reflected the bank’s dour outlook for oil prices and the loonie, as well as its glum assessment of the North American economy. Its model mix is now 51 per cent invested in fixed-income securities and 9 per cent in cash.

It is a stodgy mix, to be sure, but one that should do well if, as National Bank expects, U.S. and Canadian growth hits the skids in the months ahead.

 

728x90x4

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

Published

 on

 

MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

Published

 on

 

Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

Source link

Continue Reading

Business

U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

Published

 on

 

TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

Source link

Continue Reading

Trending