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Who is Muhammad Aurangzeb, the man tasked with fixing Pakistan’s economy?

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Islamabad, Pakistan — When Pakistan’s 19-member new cabinet took oath on March 11, one man stood out in the lineup: Muhammad Aurangzeb, a political outsider tasked with the challenge of steering the country out of its economic woes.

Aurangzeb, a veteran banker who previously headed one of Pakistan’s largest commercial banks, Habib Bank Limited (HBL), has been given the reins of a $350bn economy over several other contenders, including the four-time finance minister Ishaq Dar.

A graduate of the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania, Aurangzeb also worked in major international banks, such as Citibank and JP Morgan, before his six-year stint at the HBL.

A dual national, Aurangzeb had to relinquish his Dutch nationality to hold a public office in Pakistan. While he is not a member of the parliament as yet, according to the country’s rules, he has six months to become a parliamentarian in order to continue as a federal minister.

Aurangzeb is not the first banker to become Pakistan’s finance minister. Before him, Shaukat Aziz held the position for eight years (1999-2007) under General Pervez Musharraf’s tenure, before becoming a prime minister.

Later, under the government of former prime minister Imran Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), banker Shaukat Tarin was given the portfolio which he held for one year (2021-2022) before the PTI government was removed through a parliamentary vote of no-confidence in April 2022.

Aurangzeb’s appointment comes at a critical time when the country faces severe economic challenges, as he works with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN) government. Sharif and his PMLN came to power after forming a coalition government following the recent February 8 elections, which were marred by allegations of widespread rigging.

One of Aurangzeb’s first tasks, say analysts, will be to urgently negotiate a new International Monetary Fund (IMF) loan programme after the expiry of the existing $3bn, nine-month-long agreement in April.

A new loan programme with the global lender is necessary for the country which is currently burdened by more than $130bn – at least a third of its gross domestic product – in external debts. Pakistan was scheduled to repay $24bn by June this year but managed to secure some relief from bilateral creditors through rollovers. The country now has to pay nearly $5bn before the end of the fiscal year in June.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s current foreign currency stocks stand at a paltry $7.8bn, enough to cover just about eight weeks of imports.

Its currency has devalued by more than 50 percent in the last two years, while inflation, currently at more than 23 percent, shot up to nearly 40 percent in 2023, with a rapid increase in energy tariffs as well as the price of basic food commodities.

Inflation in Pakistan hit a record high of nearly 40 percent last year. [Shahzaib Akber/EPA]
Inflation in Pakistan hit a record high of nearly 40 percent last year. [Shahzaib Akber/EPA]

Many observers believe that Aurangzeb’s experience with global banks and exposure to international financial markets is critical, considering Pakistan’s debt challenges.

Sajid Amin Javed, a senior economist associated with the Sustainable Development Policy Institute in Islamabad (SDPI) said Aurangzeb’s appointment is a signal from the government that it is committed to introducing economic reforms – even though they might be politically unpopular.

“Partially, this may also be a step to dilute the perception that the PDM government could not deliver in the past,” he told Al Jazeera, referring to a coalition that Sharif led briefly after the removal of Imran Khan’s government, and whose brief tenure coincided with skyrocketing inflation and mounting economic struggles for Pakistanis.

But Aurangzeb will need more than his background to succeed in his job, suggested Karachi-based economist Khurram Schehzad.

“The key point is not necessarily who the finance minister is, but rather, what would the person do, what their vision is, and what long-term thinking they are bringing to the table,” Schehzad told Al Jazeera.

Islamabad-based Javed of the SDPI says these are challenging times for any finance minister but Aurangzeb’s lack of political baggage could work in his favour.

“We may see a more reforms-focused engagement with [the] IMF instead of political balancing,” Javed said, referring to pressures from voter lobbies against reforms that traditional politicians often grapple with. Most importantly, he brings fresh thinking on economic policy conduct. Given his global experience, he may go a bit deeper on overhauling of economic policy and country may see a renewed focus on economic growth.”

Karachi-based economist Ammar Habib Khan, while acknowledging Aurangzeb’s experience in finance, told Al Jazeera that a macroeconomist might have been better suited for the job than a banker.

“Usually, those at the helm [of the government] are unable to understand the long lead time associated with reforms, and the macroeconomic balance that needs to be attained,” he said. “They go for a quick-fix solution, mostly bringing in people that can provide band-aids rather than drive long-tailed reforms.”

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B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Nova Scotia bill would kick-start offshore wind industry without approval from Ottawa

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HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government has introduced a bill that would kick-start the province’s offshore wind industry without federal approval.

Natural Resources Minister Tory Rushton says amendments within a new omnibus bill introduced today will help ensure Nova Scotia meets its goal of launching a first call for offshore wind bids next year.

The province wants to offer project licences by 2030 to develop a total of five gigawatts of power from offshore wind.

Rushton says normally the province would wait for the federal government to adopt legislation establishing a wind industry off Canada’s East Coast, but that process has been “progressing slowly.”

Federal legislation that would enable the development of offshore wind farms in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador has passed through the first and second reading in the Senate, and is currently under consideration in committee.

Rushton says the Nova Scotia bill mirrors the federal legislation and would prevent the province’s offshore wind industry from being held up in Ottawa.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

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