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Who wins and who loses when oil prices fall? – BBC News

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A slump in oil prices is normally a cause for celebration in gas-guzzling nations. The average American burns through 10 litres of oil or oil products per day in normal times.

But for oil producing countries – the “global petropolis” – such a drop in the cost of crude can spell disaster, and hardship for millions.

It’s easy to see why oil is referred to as black gold. When the price was riding high, oil revenues filled the coffers of companies and governments in the countries that produce it. That kept people fed and public services flourishing.

But now, having oil can be a curse rather than a blessing.

The International Energy Agency previously warned that Ecuador, Nigeria and Iraq could be worst hit, with earnings falling by between 50% and 85% – and that was assuming oil prices of $30 a barrel. Now, it’s less than $20 a barrel.

All their economies were under pressure already, all are heavily dependent on oil.

Fuel accounts for 98.5% of Iraq’s export earnings (gems, precious metals, fruit and nuts make up most of the rest). The agency claims Iraq’s government will now face a $50bn spending shortfall for the year, even if it were to only pay its civil servants, rendering spending on areas like healthcare vulnerable at the worst possible time.

How much a country spends on producing oil also dictates its vulnerability. Saudi Arabia has one of the lowest bills for extracting oil – but its dependence on the commodity means it too could face a funding shortfall of over $100bn. It’s still recovering from the last major drop in oil prices in 2014. Attempts to push into areas such as tourism were insufficient to plug the gap.

It needs the oil price to be around $85 a barrel to balance the books on government spending.

Ironically, it was Saudi that accelerated the oil price volatility by threatening to boost production to punish its rival Russia – a country which is far less vulnerable to swings in the price of crude.

President Trump has weighed in to promise support to the US oil and gas industry (in addition to the $650bn of subsidies the fossil fuel sector already gets). While it is the issues of storage and distribution there that have caused such a marked swing in the West Texas Intermediate measure of prices, oil production makes up a far lesser proportion of the US economy than in many other nations. And that makes the US less vulnerable.

The lower price is, in theory, a bonus to its drivers and factories – and to those elsewhere. Typically, countries that are net users would stand to enjoy a boost – but that is very muted for most at present, given restrictions on movements and production.

But it’ll benefit oil’s biggest customer, China, which accounts for a fifth of imports and is reportedly stockpiling bargain-basement crude as it fires up its production lines again.

On the whole, as the oil price has dropped, the risk of deeper recessions for producers has grown. However, if sustained, the fall could help the recovery in other nations further down the road.

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Japan’s SoftBank returns to profit after gains at Vision Fund and other investments

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TOKYO (AP) — Japanese technology group SoftBank swung back to profitability in the July-September quarter, boosted by positive results in its Vision Fund investments.

Tokyo-based SoftBank Group Corp. reported Tuesday a fiscal second quarter profit of nearly 1.18 trillion yen ($7.7 billion), compared with a 931 billion yen loss in the year-earlier period.

Quarterly sales edged up about 6% to nearly 1.77 trillion yen ($11.5 billion).

SoftBank credited income from royalties and licensing related to its holdings in Arm, a computer chip-designing company, whose business spans smartphones, data centers, networking equipment, automotive, consumer electronic devices, and AI applications.

The results were also helped by the absence of losses related to SoftBank’s investment in office-space sharing venture WeWork, which hit the previous fiscal year.

WeWork, which filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in 2023, emerged from Chapter 11 in June.

SoftBank has benefitted in recent months from rising share prices in some investment, such as U.S.-based e-commerce company Coupang, Chinese mobility provider DiDi Global and Bytedance, the Chinese developer of TikTok.

SoftBank’s financial results tend to swing wildly, partly because of its sprawling investment portfolio that includes search engine Yahoo, Chinese retailer Alibaba, and artificial intelligence company Nvidia.

SoftBank makes investments in a variety of companies that it groups together in a series of Vision Funds.

The company’s founder, Masayoshi Son, is a pioneer in technology investment in Japan. SoftBank Group does not give earnings forecasts.

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Yuri Kageyama is on X:

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump campaign promises unlikely to harm entrepreneurship: Shopify CFO

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Shopify Inc. executives brushed off concerns that incoming U.S. President Donald Trump will be a major detriment to many of the company’s merchants.

“There’s nothing in what we’ve heard from Trump, nor would there have been anything from (Democratic candidate) Kamala (Harris), which we think impacts the overall state of new business formation and entrepreneurship,” Shopify’s chief financial officer Jeff Hoffmeister told analysts on a call Tuesday.

“We still feel really good about all the merchants out there, all the entrepreneurs that want to start new businesses and that’s obviously not going to change with the administration.”

Hoffmeister’s comments come a week after Trump, a Republican businessman, trounced Harris in an election that will soon return him to the Oval Office.

On the campaign trail, he threatened to impose tariffs of 60 per cent on imports from China and roughly 10 per cent to 20 per cent on goods from all other countries.

If the president-elect makes good on the promise, many worry the cost of operating will soar for companies, including customers of Shopify, which sells e-commerce software to small businesses but also brands as big as Kylie Cosmetics and Victoria’s Secret.

These merchants may feel they have no choice but to pass on the increases to customers, perhaps sparking more inflation.

If Trump’s tariffs do come to fruition, Shopify’s president Harley Finkelstein pointed out China is “not a huge area” for Shopify.

However, “we can’t anticipate what every presidential administration is going to do,” he cautioned.

He likened the uncertainty facing the business community to the COVID-19 pandemic where Shopify had to help companies migrate online.

“Our job is no matter what comes the way of our merchants, we provide them with tools and service and support for them to navigate it really well,” he said.

Finkelstein was questioned about the forthcoming U.S. leadership change on a call meant to delve into Shopify’s latest earnings, which sent shares soaring 27 per cent to $158.63 shortly after Tuesday’s market open.

The Ottawa-based company, which keeps its books in U.S. dollars, reported US$828 million in net income for its third quarter, up from US$718 million in the same quarter last year, as its revenue rose 26 per cent.

Revenue for the period ended Sept. 30 totalled US$2.16 billion, up from US$1.71 billion a year earlier.

Subscription solutions revenue reached US$610 million, up from US$486 million in the same quarter last year.

Merchant solutions revenue amounted to US$1.55 billion, up from US$1.23 billion.

Shopify’s net income excluding the impact of equity investments totalled US$344 million for the quarter, up from US$173 million in the same quarter last year.

Daniel Chan, a TD Cowen analyst, said the results show Shopify has a leadership position in the e-commerce world and “a continued ability to gain market share.”

In its outlook for its fourth quarter of 2024, the company said it expects revenue to grow at a mid-to-high-twenties percentage rate on a year-over-year basis.

“Q4 guidance suggests Shopify will finish the year strong, with better-than-expected revenue growth and operating margin,” Chan pointed out in a note to investors.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:SHOP)

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RioCan cuts nearly 10 per cent staff in efficiency push as condo market slows

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TORONTO – RioCan Real Estate Investment Trust says it has cut almost 10 per cent of its staff as it deals with a slowdown in the condo market and overall pushes for greater efficiency.

The company says the cuts, which amount to around 60 employees based on its last annual filing, will mean about $9 million in restructuring charges and should translate to about $8 million in annualized cash savings.

The job cuts come as RioCan and others scale back condo development plans as the market softens, but chief executive Jonathan Gitlin says the reductions were from a companywide efficiency effort.

RioCan says it doesn’t plan to start any new construction of mixed-use properties this year and well into 2025 as it adjusts to the shifting market demand.

The company reported a net income of $96.9 million in the third quarter, up from a loss of $73.5 million last year, as it saw a $159 million boost from a favourable change in the fair value of investment properties.

RioCan reported what it says is a record-breaking 97.8 per cent occupancy rate in the quarter including retail committed occupancy of 98.6 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:REI.UN)

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